Kieran Cobley and Will Dean look ahead to UFC 254, including a massive showdown between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje.
Recommended bets
2pts Khabib Nurmagomedov to win in rounds 1-5 at 10/11
1pt Robert Whittaker to beat Jared Cannonier by Submission or Decision at 13/8
2.5pts Stefan Struve to beat Tai Tuivasa at 10/11
1pt Struve to win by submission at 3/1
1.5pts Sam Alvey v Da Un Jung to go over 1.5 rounds at 5/6
Main card
By Kieran Cobley
The biggest fight of the year is just days away as Khabib Nurmagomedov looks to beat interim lightweight champion, Justin Gaethje, to unify the lightweight titles and extend his unbeaten record to 29-0.
The main card also sees some other really interesting fights, with former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker taking on Jared Cannonier and a light heavyweight rematch between Ion Cutelaba and Magomed Ankalaev.
First though, Nurmagomedov v Gaethje is a fight fans have been anticipating since its announcement and for good reason.
In one corner you have Nurmagomedov, an undefeated lightweight champion, who averages 5.35 takedowns per 15 minutes, and has finished 18 of his wins (eight KOs and 10 submissions).
In the other you have Gaethje, who has earned the nickname 'The Highlight' with his hell-for-leather approach, one which has seen him win 19 fights by KO and secure four 'Performance of the Night' bonuses. Even in defeat, Gaethje has looked phenomenal.
The big question in this fight will surround Gaethje’s wrestling defence and if he can keep himself up-right against The Eagle, something no other fighter has managed to do.
If Khabib gets this fight to the floor, which he should given he has mastered the art, he is very well equipped to keep himself in a dominant position, usually with his opponent backed up against the cage with their legs crossed and elevated underneath him while he secures his well-known 'Dagestani handcuff'.
It is in this position where Nurmagomedov comes into his own, as he throws damaging strikes against his opponents, that either force the referee to stop the fight or open up a submission opportunity, like he did against Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier in his last two fights.
In his last five, Nurmagomedov has landed 22 takedowns, and connected with 409 significant strikes.
As much as I do think Gaethje is the biggest threat Khabib has faced, mainly due to the fact he is not afraid to put himself in harm's way to land a punch and that he is an NCAA All-American wrestler, he doesn’t have the skills to win this fight.
Expect Nurmagomedov to look to take Gaethje down and hold him there while landing shots for the first three rounds, before looking to put the fight to bed in the fourth and fifth rounds.
Sky Bet Request-a-Bet: Nurmagomedov to win, land 3+ knockdowns, fight to last over 3.5 rounds
Whitts about him
Looking at the odds for Whittaker v Cannonier, I find it hard to believe that the bookies have given the latter the slight edge, with The Killa Gorilla a shade of odds-on at the time of writing.
Whittaker is a former middleweight champion, whose five losses have come against some of the best fighters around, such as Stephen Thompson and the man who took the title from him, Israel Adesanya.
Cannonier meanwhile is still a relevant newcomer to the division, but has made an impact with wins over possibly the greatest MMA fighter of all time, Anderson Silva, and middleweight contender Jack Hermansson, both via KO.
Whittaker will look to get in range and get the fight to the ground at the first opportunity, cutting the size advantage Cannonier has and allowing him to implement his high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, a skill set that has allowed him to win five fights via submission.
Cannonier meanwhile will look to keep the fight on the feet. He is one of only three men to secure KO wins in three different weight classes, the other two being MMA legend and former UFC champion Vitor Belfort, and former double champion Conor McGregor.
I don’t believe Cannonier has the skills to keep the fight where it suits him though, and at 13/8, a double chance bet on Whittaker winning via submission or decision looks to be the value call.
Preliminaries
By Will Dean
Smile as fight runs on
If MMA fans have learnt anything from the 47-fight career of Smilin’ Sam Alvey, it is that he is a complex puzzle to solve. As a counter striker, Alvey is patient and opportunistic; he rarely takes control of the Octagon and instead looks to catch his opponent with a right hand as they come into striking range.
Whilst his striking may be predictable, it is still difficult to overcome, and the consequences of being caught by his right hook can be severe. Alvey has 20 career victories by KO, and his power is unquestionable.
The unfortunate product of Alvey’s notorious power is that his fights can often be tepid affairs. Smilin’ Sam will patiently wait for his openings, but his opponents are therefore too hesitant to get caught coming in that they refuse to engage with him. This can occasionally result in somewhat of a staring competition, which I expect us to see again here.
Alvey faces Da Un Jung on Saturday night, a rising South Korean prospect with two stoppage victories inside the UFC. Jung has shown incredible durability across his career, having never been knocked out and going past the halfway mark in nine of his 15 bouts.
The heavier weight classes of combat sports naturally produce more power-punching knockouts, but styles make fights in MMA. Alvey has made a career from the power in his right hand, and while his career has stagnated in recent years, he always demands respect. This fight might not be pretty, but there should be some value in betting over 1.5 rounds.
Nine-inch nails
A Heavyweight clash between fellow strugglers Tai Tuivasa and Stefan Struve headlines the preliminaries for UFC 254. Both have gone 1-3 in their last four bouts and a loss here could spell the end of someone’s UFC career.
This fight is also intriguing from a stylistic perspective, as each man’s biggest strength is the other’s most glaring weakness. Tuivasa is a very powerful striker with below par grappling defence, whilst Struve is a crafty submission threat with a questionable chin.
I am siding with Struve here, as I believe he is the much more well-rounded fighter. While he is known primarily as a grappler, he also possesses good kickboxing fundamentals, and can cause problems on the feet too.
The Skyscraper (as his nickname suggests) is also the tallest man on the UFC’s roster and will have a nine-inch reach and height advantage over his opponent on Saturday night. His striking style incorporates his length well, as he uses the range to manage distance and keep out of the way of powerful shots coming in.
I think Struve has the potential to frustrate Tuivasa, as the latter has shown that his cardio does not hold up well over the course of a three-round fight. If the Dutch submission artist can avoid the KO in the opening few minutes, while wearing on his opponent with takedowns and clinch grappling, then the fight will be there for the taking.
In his most recent performance, Tuivasa suffered that exact fate. After a few minutes of one-sided striking, Bam Bam was taken down off a caught leg-kick (something Struve can also utilise). Off his back, he made numerous mistakes and was controlled for the remainder of the round. When coming out for the second round he was visibly fatigued, had even less to offer defensively, and was submitted shortly after.
If Sergei Spivak can do this to the Australian, then Struve should do it to in half the time. The Skyscraper is very aware of his grappling advantage in this fight and has said in interviews this week that he has every intention of utilising it. I think Struve, who has 18 submission victories in his career, holds all the aces here. If he can avoid taking an early strike from the hard hitting Tuivasa, he should take over in the second round and secure a submission victory.
Posted at 0910 BST on 22/10/20
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