Rory Jiwani kicks off his Olympics betting previews with a look at some of the more obscure markets, from surfing to rugby sevens.
1pt France to win men’s volleyball at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Ramzi Boukhiam to win men’s surfing at 33/1 (Unibet)
1pt Spain to win men’s handball at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Tara Rigney to win women’s single sculls at 15/2 (Paddy Power)
1pt Fiji to win men’s rugby sevens at 13/2 (888sport)
We’re just days away from the start of the Paris 2024 Olympics with the world’s best athletes battling it out over the next couple of weeks or so. We’ll be looking at two of the main sports, swimming and athletics, later on but here are some bets in some less familiar disciplines.
As is always worth noting, each-way betting is very much a rarity. There may be the odd ‘to place’ market but I’m afraid it’s largely win only which carries the risk of severe seconditis.
One special note for these Paris Games is the presence of crowds which were missing at Tokyo 2020 three years ago. This can only enhance the spectacle and should give an advantage to the home team.
Without further ado, let’s look at some bets...
FRANCE are the defending champions in men’s volleyball and completed victory in the Nations League last month.
The bookmakers have priced Poland up as the favourites but that appears to be based largely on their world number one ranking. However, France beat them 3-2 in the semi-finals of the Nations League – whose finals were held in the Polish city of Łódź – before defeating Japan 3-1 in the final.
Brazil are also vying for favouritism but, with an almost identical squad to the one selected for Paris, went out to Poland in the quarter-finals after winning just six out of 12 round-robin matches.
Throw in home advantage and France really should be favourites to retain their crown. That makes the 15/2 with Sky Bet far too big.
Environmentalists may not have been too chuffed when Tahiti was announced as the venue for surfing at Paris 2024, but the athletes were delighted. In marked contrast to the calm waters which greeted the surfers on the sport’s Olympic debut in Tokyo, Teahupo’o is the most spectacular and fearsome wave in competitive surfing.
As a result, it is very much a horses-for-courses venue. As far as I can tell, only four of the men’s field have ever reached the final in the annual World Surf League (WSL) round at Teahupo’o and, sure enough, they fill the top four spots in the betting.
Gabriel Medina is a rightful favourite having won twice and been runner-up four times in the last nine editions. He also reached the semi-finals earlier this year when his fellow Brazilian Italo Ferreira, who failed to make the team and will not retain his Olympic title, took victory.
This year’s runner-up was USA’s John John Florence who also made the final back in 2016. Local surfer Kauli Vaast was second in 2022 with Australia’s Jack Robinson victorious in 2023. If I had to pick one out of the four, Medina would be it at a general 3/1 in places, but there is a tempter at a far bigger price.
Morocco’s RAMZI BOUKHIAM competed at Tokyo 2020 and won silver at the ISA Surfing Games in March to book his second Olympic appearance.
He missed the whole of last year’s WSL through injury and, while he hasn’t set the world alight this year, did achieve an excellent third in his first competition at Teahupo’o including a 9.8 score (which arguably should have been a perfect 10) to beat the great Kelly Slater in the quarter-finals.
At a place some surfers never get to grips with, Boukhiam showed he can handle it and expressed a real affinity for the place. As he told The Inertia: "While Japan was nice, this is more the type of wave I like – the waves that scare me. I like the challenge."
At 33/1 with Unibet and others, he is a huge price and I wish there was each-way betting as I’d be contemplating a sizeable wager. As it is win-only, we’ll just have a point on and hope for the best.
In men’s handball, the bookies are predicting a third consecutive final between reigning champions France and Rio 2016 gold medallists Denmark. The teams met in the final of the European Championship back in January with France prevailing in extra time. The French also needed extra time to get past Sweden in the semi-finals with Denmark finding life slightly easier against hosts Germany.
While Sweden and Germany are also in the mix for the medals, I think SPAIN have been overlooked in the betting.
This is because they failed the get out of the preliminary group at the Europeans although there was a good reason for this. Having lost to Croatia in their opening game, they needed to defeat Austria to reach the main round. But their star player Alex Dujshebaev received what looked an unfortunate red card and they could only manage a draw.
With Dujshebaev firing, Los Hispanos are a serious outfit. They reached the semi-finals in Tokyo three years ago where they could not handle Mikkel Hansen. The Danish legend scored 12 times in that encounter, but he is now 36 and used more sparingly.
The knockout stages in these big handball tournaments are notoriously tight with just a goal or two often separating the teams. Like Denmark and Hansen, France have their own hero in Nikola Karabatic having his last hurrah. While they also look strong, and will have home support, I would rather chance the 12/1 about Spain with Ladbrokes than 7/4 about the favourites.
In rowing, Karolien Florijn is as short as 1/4 in the women’s single sculls and with some justification. She is unbeaten since switching from sweeping (one oar) to sculling (two oars) after winning silver with the Dutch four in Tokyo.
However, at the World Cup II regatta in Lucerne, she was given a real scare by Australia’s TARA RIGNEY.
Florijn had won her previous races comfortably, but this event saw Rigney put up a strong fight until the last 200 metres when the Dutchwoman finally started to assert. It looks like the gap is closing, and Rigney – who is very much on the up having contested the double sculls in Tokyo – might be capable of turning the tables in Vaires-sur-Marne.
With reigning Olympic champion Emma Twigg’s best days probably behind her, Rigney looks to be the main threat to Florijn’s unbeaten run and 15/2 with Paddy Power looks a fair price.
Finally, we’ll go back to tried and tested in the men’s rugby sevens. With superstar Antoine Dupont in their ranks, France are the favourites having won the SVNS Grand Final in Madrid at the start of June.
But two-time defending champions FIJI, who had been very disappointing during the regular season, gave notice that they are peaking at just the right time. They won their three group games, including a narrow decision over New Zealand in their opener, before scoring a vintage Fijian try on the stroke of half-time to take a 14-7 lead into the break of their semi-final against France.
Dupont inspired a second-half comeback with great work in attack and at the breakdown, but Fiji – who went on to beat New Zealand again in the third-place playoff – showed more than enough in Madrid to suggest that they are in the mix for a hat-trick of golds. The world and its dog knows how much sevens rugby means to the Pacific Island nation, and 13/2 with 888sport is too big a price to ignore.
Posted at 0915 BST on 21/07/24
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