David Massey takes time out from the day job to pore over the field for the Eurovision Song Contest, where Malta get the vote to finally break their duck.
Eurovision betting tips: Saturday May 22
1pt win Malta at 13/2 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Portugal at 50/1 (Unibet 1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.5pt e.w. Lithuania at 80/1 (bet365, 888sport 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt Germany to finish last at 4/1 (bet365, BoyleSports)
0.5pt Belgium to finish last at 33/1 (bet365)
After missing out last year, fans have had to be patient for their annual dose but on Saturday night, Rotterdam hosts the 65th (it feels like more) edition of the Eurovision Song Contest.
Who will come out on top? Who will get the dreaded wooden spoon? Is anyone going to give the UK any points?
My A-Z of the gladiators involved in this monumental pit fight should give you some ideas.
- Last five years' results in parentheses; NQ=non-qualification
Albania (17-NQ-NQ-11-17)
- Karma, performed by Anxhela Peristeri
In what appears to be the same dress as about half the women performing are wearing, Anxhela delivers this Bonnie Tyler-styled power ballad with gusto, and does it well. Performing second on Saturday isn’t going to help her cause, however, and this looks set for a bottom-half finish.
Azerbaijan (12-17-14-NQ-8)
- Mata Hari, Efendi
It’s been a decade since Azerbaijan won it in Dusseldorf but they’ve given themselves half a chance of a repeat with this sparky little number, performed by Samira Efendi, who clearly likes her historical figures as she was going with 'Cleopatra' in 2020 before the contest was cancelled. This thumps along in a pleasing fashion, tinged with Middle-Eastern drums and horns, and she performed it well on Tuesday night in the Semi-Finals. Could graze the top 10.
Belgium (4-10-4-NQ-NQ)
- The Wrong Place, Hooverphonic
Belgium’s Eurovision journey is something of a rollercoaster, their one and only win coming back in 1986, and it’s hard to see Hooverphonic’s 'The Wrong Place' doubling their tally here. The band themselves have been around a fair while, their sound evolving from trip-hop to something much more poppy here, but while this song is well crafted, it’s hardly crowd-pleasing stuff and might struggle to connect with what they call 'the people'.
Bulgaria (NQ-4-2-14-NQ)
- Growing Up Is Getting Old, Victoria
Bulgaria go straight for the heartstrings with this nostalgic ballad, which sees our Victoria take a trip down memory lane at all the things she loved as a child but now sees as distant memories. A slightly shaky performance in the semi-final was hardly what you’d want to see, and there’s no doubt it loses something for not having the tearjerker video, but it’s a chance all the same if she can raise her vocal game. Historically, she’s got the best draw as well, going 17th (seven times a winner).
Cyprus (22-21-21-2-13)
- El Diablo, Elena Tsagrinou
Cyprus are yet to get off the Eurovision mark, but they give it their all with this Gaga-inspired number which has already upset the Cypriot churches with her 'I gave my heart to El Diablo' line in it. Come on lads, it’s 2021. Literally bent over backwards to get through her semi-final, with the sort of contortion only seen on Britain’s Got Talent as a rule. It’s a toe-tapper, and should pick up plenty of support.
France (25-6-12-13-16)
- Voila, Barbara Pravi
It’s one of the favourites and has scored highly amongst the Eurovision crowd before the event, but winning with a song sung in French hasn’t been achieved since Celine Dion singing for Switzerland back in 1988. This ballad is delivered with all the passion you’d expect of the country that gave us Sacha Distel, but not even speeding it up a bit at the end can save it. Will score highly with the juries, but whether this can garner public support will be the key to her chances.
Finland (NQ-NQ-NQ-25-NQ)
- Dark Side, Blind Channel
Finland, as Finland do, go for metal again but whereas their 2006 winners Lordi were more than happy to send themselves up (and we loved them for it) this lot have been listening to far too much Erasmus and take themselves too seriously. There’s a lot of strobe lighting and a lot of angry hand waving and a lot of noise but I can go to my local Aldi and get all that. You’ll either love it or hate it.
Germany (27-26-25-4-25)
- I Don’t Feel Hate, Jendrick
Starts badly, with some ukulele and even some whistling, but interestingly gets worse, much worse, as knockabout music hall mixes with rap to produce some sort of CBeebies-day-glo, cheese-eating-nightmare. It’s hard to see where this picks up any votes, as nobody with musical taste - no, nobody with ears - could see any merit in this. Good grief, there’s a woman dressed as a giant hand on stage. Might be relying on the Swiss to bail them out of a nul points situation.
Greece (19-NQ-19-NQ-21)
- Last Dance, Stefania
Greece try their hand at a bit of Europop with this dance number from young Stefania (ironically, she’s Dutch) and while it should improve on their previous performances, the production is a bit tinny, and the whole thing comes across a touch too Flashdance rather than Last Dance. Some weird on-stage graphics don’t help her cause, and although it’s glitzy and glamorous, others make more appeal for win purposes.
Iceland (NQ-NQ-NQ-NQ-10)
- 10 Years, Dadi and Gagnamagnio
Dadi takes his Eurovision very seriously, and rightly so. He’s once again come up with another synth-filled belter of a tune, this time celebrating the 10 years he’s shared with his wife, and you’ll be dancing along like a good ‘un before you know it. Think Daft Punk but with the edges knocked off, and you’re in the right ballpark. A positive Covid test in the camp means they won’t be performing live, which probably counts against them, but only a fool would write this off.
Israel (9-14-21-3-21)
- Set Me Free, Eden Alene
Israel have a proud Eurovision history, winning it four times, but this is fairly standard mid-table Eurovision fodder. It’s pleasant enough, and there are worse ways to pass three minutes, but it’s remarkable only for her hairdo which, you feel, if she stands at the right angle she could pick up Radio Luxembourg on.
Italy (3-16-6-5-2)
- Zitti e buoni, Maneskin
Italy decide enough is enough of balladeers and go for something altogether more angsty and indie with Maneskin, who celebrate being different with this charming little ditty which translates as 'shut up and be good'. It’s a song that will split opinion, and it’s probably not for your gran, but the young hipsters will love it, they look the part, and if you like a bit of Marilyn Manson, you’ll be alright with this. Well drawn too, going on third last, and the favourites are sure to be in the fight.
Lithuania (18-9-NQ-12-NQ)
- Discotheque, The Roop
I have no idea what a Roop is, but Lithuania, resplendent in their banana-yellow suits, did well to cheat trap one in the first semi-final with this funky low-key piece of electronica despite some frankly bizarre dance moves. Grows on you with every listen, which not only tells you I’ve listened to it a few times (I do it so you don’t have to) but that I quite like it. Sung in English, always a good thing when looking for the winner, they have a decent draw in 18, and could give you a good run for your fiver at a price.
Malta (NQ-12-NQ-14-NQ)
- Je Me Casse, Destiny
Great number from Destiny, Malta’s answer to Lizzo (she names her as one of her idols) that fizzes along venomously, with its punchy 'not your baby' line a winner with the laydeez. A story of her telling her ex to sling it, it‘s brilliantly performed, wonderfully produced and will have you out of your seat. Scored heavily with OGAE (a pre-contest Eurovision panel of enthusiasts) and Malta’s best chance of breaking their Eurovision duck for some time. Early draw not ideal (goes sixth) but that aside, looks a strong candidate.
Moldova (NQ-NQ-3-10-NQ)
- Sugar, Natalia Gordienko
It’s that dress again. Natalia goes all hit-me-Britney with her bubbly, uptempo Europop number that got off to a shaky start in the semi-final, but she recovered her composure well, and she deserves her place in the final. Could struggle against some of the classier Europop on show, but they always seem to pick up plenty of votes, and it might creep into the top 10.
Netherlands (NQ-11-11-18-1)
- Birth Of A New Age, Jeangu Macrooy
The hosts, disappointingly, turn not to the Rotterdam Termination Source for their entry (give ‘em a YouTube), but Jeangu Macrooy, who in turn gives them this soulful yet poppy number. It’s perfectly pleasant and getting a home fixture is never a bad thing, but there’s nothing that makes this standout and it lacks the depth of Duncan Laurence’s Arcade, their previous winner. Bottom half beckons.
Norway (8-NQ-10-15-6)
- Fallen Angel, Tix
Gets his name from the fact he’s got Tourette’s and is a mental health advisor, so fair play to him for that, but this ballad never really gets going and despite his massive wings, is soon forgotten about. An uphill struggle to get into the top half beckons.
Portugal (NQ-NQ-1-26-NQ)
- Love Is On My Side, The Black Mamba
I’ll admit to having a few quid on at huge prices earlier in the week, as I thought this at least sounded different, and lead singer Pedro Tananka’s voice really stands out. It’s a melodic, well-composed song (and the first time Portugal have sung in English in the competition, a big plus point) that went down a storm in the semi-final on Thursday and this slightly melancholic number will strike a chord with many. The really fancy prices went after that great performance, but a high placing is far from out of the question if he performs as well again on Saturday.
Russia (2-3-NQ-NQ-3)
- Russian Women, Manizha
Bonkers first 30 seconds as she comes out in a dress big enough to hide a bus under before stepping out of it, but this slogan-heavy rap song is clever enough to know its limits and never strays out of them. The visuals make it what it is, and on that alone it’ll get votes, but by the end of the three minutes you’re reaching for the paracetamol.
San Marino (NQ-NQ-NQ-NQ-19)
- Adrenalina, Senhit ft Flo Rida
Let’s face it, Flo Rida rocking up for San Marino was about as likely as me playing upfront for Derby County but here we are, Mr Rida is indeed 'in da house'. Features a crackers piece of what I can only describe as head jewellery at the start (you’ll see) but there’s no doubting Flo’s involvement helps this otherwise standard Europop piece along. As does a plot draw, as they go on last. Ought to be top 10, you’d think.
Serbia (10-18-NQ-19-18)
- Hurricane, Loco Loco
All-girl trio that give this Shakira-esque number plenty of oomph, but rather less in the way of clothing. The acoustic version of it is excellent, but this lacks the star quality that a few of these have and despite good production, it probably falls short of what’s required. Features the standard Eurovision up-we-go-a-key-change for the final 30 seconds, which is always welcome.
Spain (21-22-26-23-22)
- Voy A Quedarme, Blas Canto
Sadly, any time Spain go down the balladeer route, you can’t help but compare them to an Iglesias, and Blas is no exception. Acapella for the first half minute, it takes its time getting going but when it does, it’s no more (or less) than you’d expect.
Sweden (1-5-5-7-5)
- Voices, Tusse
Six times Sweden have proved victorious at Eurovision but they face an uphill task to make it seven with this pleasant but bog-standard ballad. There’s an anti-hate message in there but sadly it gets washed away in the overdramatic production. Still gets a 12 from Norway, mind.
Switzerland (NQ-NQ-NQ-NQ-4)
- Tout L’Universe, Gjon’s Tears
Hauntingly beautiful, piano-driven melody that probably loses a little for a live performance, as the accompanying video is stunning, if a little bleak. Performed it well in the semi-final and for the vocals and composition it will score very heavily with the juries. If the public take to it as well, it’ll go very close.
Ukraine (NQ-1-24-17-NQ)
- Voices, Go_A
The big mover in the markets this week. Marmite of a song, Go_A looks like the sort of lass that would smack another in a nightclub for daring to wear the same perfume as her, but this relentless electro-banger that speeds up the longer it goes on could catch fire. And there’s a tin whistle in the middle-eight. What more do you want? With some political sympathy votes thrown in, it looks a runner.
United Kingdom (24-24-15-24-26)
- Embers, James Newton
James Newton represents the UK with the appropriately named Embers, which is pretty much where the UK’s Eurovision entries tend to end up. An uptempo pop-dance number that bounces along quite happily for three minutes and there are far worse in the competition, but we don’t get votes from anyone anymore. No-one likes us, we don’t care. Morrissey next year, you know.
What are the best Eurovision bets?
There we go then, a full rundown of what looks the most open Eurovision for some time. In terms of a standout song, then you’d be looking at Malta’s Destiny, as Je Me Casse really hits home hard and is going to be hugely popular with a large cross-section of both the juries (great lyrically, and performed well) and the voters. It needs to navigate a potentially hazardous early draw, but the song is strong enough to carry it across. Italy always go well, and thanks to a good draw, they’ll be fresh in the voters minds but they won’t appeal to everyone. At bigger prices, the likes of Portugal and Lithuania make some appeal, especially the Portuguese entry which could capitalise on being sung in English, always a major plus point when looking for the winner.
The UK’s entry, Embers, might pick up votes from the juries, enough to keep it out of the bottom three, but it is very hard to see where Germany get their points from. As much as the UK get a shoeing from the rest of Europe every year, so too do Germany, who have finished last or second-last in four of the last five years. The last time they did kooky, with Jamie-Lee’s “Ghost” back in 2015, they finished joint-last with Austria and a fat nul points, and a similar scenario might unfold for young Jendrick if the Swiss (who generally throw ‘em a few points) don’t come to their rescue.
At a bigger price, Belgium are worth a look for last as well. The song itself is fine, if unremarkable, but it goes early (fourth up) and they are followed by some heavy-hitters in Russia, Malta and Portugal, so it could easily just get glossed over by the voters and juries alike.