Super Bowl LVI: Los Angeles Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals best bets and keys to victory
A Super Bowl no one saw coming, at least from the AFC.
Joe Burrow’s sophomore season is playing out like a movie, as he’s returned from a devastating ACL injury in his rookie campaign to now competing for the Lombardi – the Bengals were 125/1 to even just reach the Super Bowl.
The home-town LA Rams stand in their way, with Matthew Stafford guiding them to the helm of the NFC.
Sean McVay’s roster is absolutely loaded on all levels, from Kupp & OBJ, to Donald & Miller and so much more, but this will be no cake walk.
Here’s the keys to victory, and what to look out for.
Joe Brr
Never has a quarterback exuded coolness quite like Joe Burrow. From Cartier sunglasses to celebratory cigars and even flaunting his diamonds, it’s hard to not like him.
In just his second season, he’s ascended to superstar status. There’s an aurora of confidence, and he’s already implementing a winning culture in Cincinnati.
There’s a case to be made that the Bengals have the most talent deficient roster out of all playoff teams, but it doesn’t matter when your quarterback rises to the occasion.
Slicing & dicing with Chase & Higgins on the outside, Burrow is a marksman in the pocket – and over his last five games he’s averaged over 360 passing yards. The Rams defence will be a challenge, but one that Burrow is more than capable of.
If you like the Bengals, back Burrow for Super Bowl MVP.
What the Kupp?
It’s gone under the radar just how good Cooper Kupp has been. He has had the greatest individual season by a wide receiver ever (when including post-season numbers), and he has been clutch throughout the playoffs.
Through three games he’s hauled in 25 passes for 386 yards and four touchdowns – including those dramatic clinching plays against the Buccaneers.
His route running is electric, and the prospect of Kupp against Eli Apple is worrying to say the least. Granted, Apple did recover from his woeful first half against the Chiefs, but Kupp is a different kettle of fish.
The chemistry with Stafford is clear to see, and Kupp has been the Rams MVP all season long.
If you’re favouring the Rams to win, expect another clinic from the WR, as he caps off his record breaking year with the Super Bowl MVP.
Shooter McPherson
The rookie kicking sensation has been one of the stories of the Bengals' playoff run. He's breaking records with every kick - and he's yet to miss in the post-season, going a sensational 12/12 on field goals.
He's kicked four FGs in every single playoff game so far and has kicked game winners against the Chiefs and the Titans. His kicking points line stands at 7.5, which feels incredibly low for a player who has averaged over 13 points a game throughout the playoffs.
Moving the chains is no problem for the Bengals as they routinely enter field goal territory but finishing drives with touchdowns has been an issue.
Being able to take points is crucial, especially in the Super Bowl – expect Taylor to lean on McPherson once more.
The ghosts of the Bengals offensive line
Joe Burrow took 51 sacks throughout the regular season, and then 12 more in the playoffs – the most this year.
He was sacked a mind blowing nine times against the Titans, and now faces a defence fronted by Aaron Donald, Von Miller & Leonard Floyd. The Bengals o-line is a clear weakness, and if the Rams are to win they will need to convert quarterback pressures into sacks often.
But Burrow has been winning despite his offensive line – and when you manage to win when taking nine sacks, there surely isn’t much you can’t do.
Burrow’s pocket presence is elite, just rewatch him escaping a certain sack from Chris Jones against the Chiefs. He’s more mobile than most realise – he converted huge third downs with his legs as he posted 25 rushing yards, and in his last title game (LSU v Clemson) he ran 14 times, for 58 yards and a touchdown.
I expect the Rams d-line to feast against the Bengals, but Burrow will be able to manoeuvre his way past it.
Tee Off
Jalen Ramsey vs JaMarr Chase is going to be blockbuster, but let’s not forget about Higgins. The second year WR posted over 1,000 yards this season, and in his last two games he’s seen 19 targets for 199 yards.
With Ramsey primarily covering Chase, this will leave Higgins often facing Darious Williams. Kyle Shanahan targeted Williams over and over in the NFC Championship game, with the CB often leaving open looks.
Burrow is going to have to let the ball fly, and if Higgins can take advantage of the favourable match-up (and likely single coverage), then he could be key to this game.
- Sky Bet: Tee Higgins over 69.5 receiving yards at 5/6
- Sky Bet: Tee Higgins to score a touchdown at 5/4
Who will win?
Everything on paper points to a Rams win. The disparity in talent, the experience, the hometown team, but I cannot pick against Joe Cool.
The Bengals are here by no fluke, and for all their offensive prowess their defence is just as important – in the second half against the Chiefs they held Patrick Mahomes to just three points and a 12.27 passer rating, alongside two interceptions and four sacks.
The Rams are no joke, and this will undoubtedly be a close game – but there’s clear cause for concern. McVay burns timeouts like his GM Les Snead burns first round draft picks.
They had a 27-3 lead over the Bucs, who managed bring it back to 27-27. This happened in week 18 against the 49ers, where they were 17-3 up, yet lost 27-24.
McVay struggles to play with a lead, and the Bengals just overcame a 21-point deficit against the Chiefs.
I predict the Rams will come out flying and post an impressive first half, followed by half-time adjustments by the Bengals, McVay out-smarting himself whilst burning timeouts, as Burrow completes yet another miraculous comeback.
Score prediction: Bengals 23-21 Rams
Odds correct at 1515 GMT (04/02/21)
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