Super Bowl LVI: Best specials and prop bets for Cincinnati Bengals v Los Angeles Rams
Our resident NFL tipster Ross Williams guides us through his fancies in the weird and wonderful world of Super Bowl LVI prop bets.
Opening kickoff to be a Touchback – No – 5/6
This particular special was tipped up last year and it landed at a nice price. Predictably, the bookmakers have grown wise to it and the odds have been slashed, but it’s still very backable at 5/6 as an interest bet before the action has properly gotten underway.
Here’s the long and short of it. The Super Bowl is the one game a year where the two teams do not have access to the match ball before the opening kickoff.
In normal circumstances, both team staffs have 30 minutes pre-game to essentially ‘rough up’ the kicking ball, in order to make it more aerodynamic and reduce drag.
It sounds pedantic, but Al Pacino did once say that football is a game of inches, and every one of those inches count in the NFL.
However, at the Super Bowl, the game ball is hardly touched before it’s placed on the tee at the start of the game. It’s pristine, fresh out of the box and therefore technically less likely to travel as far through the air.
The reason for all this?
The ball used for the Super Bowl’s opening kick-off is mostly ceremonial, and is only ever kicked once. As soon as the opening play of the game is over, the ball is rushed away and eventually finds itself on display in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, alongside its predecessors.
We can all thank former Colts punter Pat McAfee for drawing attention to this, as the trend of kickers failing to achieve a touchback in the opening play of the Super Bowl had gone largely unnoticed until he revealed the ins-and-outs of actually being a kicker on football’s biggest day.
Over the last 20 years, only two opening kick-offs have gone through the endzone.
Those two occasions mean it’s still possible, of course, so let’s take a look at the kickers in question.
If the Bengals kick the game off, Evan McPherson will be the man in question and he’s proven multiple times this season that he has a strong leg.
His touchback percentage is just over 60% this year so he is a threat, but recent history suggests that year-long records are thrown out of the window on Super Bowl Sunday, for the reasons presented above.
The Chiefs’ Harrison Butker had the honour last year, and he boasted a highly impressive 75% touchback record heading into the game. Regardless, his effort only breached the endzone by a yard or two, which was all too inviting for the Buccaneers’ return specialist.
If the duty falls to Matt Gay of the Rams, I feel even more confident. Although his touchback record (63.7%) actually exceeds McPherson’s this season, there have been question marks over the kicker’s injury status of late.
Although he bounced back with an eventual game-winner, Gay missed a 47-yard field goal against Tampa Bay in the Divisional Round, and crucially he missed said kick by uncharacteristically putting it a few yards short.
Considering his opening kick-off would have to sail the best part of 75 yards to secure a touchback, I like our chances of this trend continuing.
Over 5.5 Total Match Sacks – 10/11
The 5.5 sack line is about right for this game, but seeing as the average between the two teams over the three previous games is 5.66, I’d have no issue with taking a stab at the over.
Matt Stafford hasn’t been sacked more than twice in a game since the regular season ended, but he does face a duo in serious form this weekend.
Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard have been excellent of late, picking up 5.5 sacks by themselves this postseason. Crucially, 3.5 of those came in their most recent game, against the infamously elusive Patrick Mahomes.
If the Bengals can put Stafford down three times in this game, you’d have to feel good about cracking the over.
Joe Burrow has a torrid offensive line in front of him, and he now holds the dubious distinction of being the most-sacked quarterback to ever make it all the way to the Super Bowl.
The Bengals’ passer was downed nine times by the Titans alone in the Divisional Round, and the Rams’ front seven is an even scarier prospect than Tennessee’s offering.
Last Play of the game to be a QB kneel – No – 13/8
A great bet for those hopeful of a game befitting the occasion.
50/50 bets are a feature of Super Bowl prop betting each and every year, but I much prefer the value of this particular fancy over a stab on the coin toss for example; not least because it keeps even the most casual fan invested until the dying seconds of the contest.
First of all, if the game goes to overtime, this one’s a guaranteed winner so the plus-money has immediate allure.
Plus, although the Rams are favoured in the game, very few bookmakers are willing to give the Bengals more than four points on the handicap, so it goes without saying that a close game is on the cards.
There’s no getting away from the fact that the game ending with Joe Burrow or Matt Stafford kneeling the football is the most likely scenario, but if the game has eight or fewer points in it as we enter the final moments – as the handicap suggests it will – then all this bet requires is the trailing team to have the ball in their hands last, in a desperate attempt to get on the board.
That, or we have the increasingly familiar scenario of a team lining up a field goal to win – or tie – the game at the death.
The regular season featured 32 game-winning scores on the final play of a game – the most since the NFL merger in 1970, and the playoffs have been just as wild.
Both the Rams and Bengals have walked off the field triumphant after game-winning field goals this postseason. If the Super Bowl ends in similar fashion, we all win.
Gatorade Shower – Orange – 15/8
In actual fact, there is no real strategy behind picking the winning Gatorade shower that will drench either Zac Taylor or Sean McVay on Sunday night.
The idea that the colour is pre-determined by the teams and able to be predicted via watching previous sideline shots is actually false, as Gatorade themselves have previously confirmed that multiple flavours are provided to the teams on the day.
Ultimately, the Gatorade shower will be determined by whichever vat of the stuff is closest to the winning head coach when the clock expires, so your guess is as good as mine.
However, it’s still a fun prop bet and if either Taylor or McVay use their youthfulness to avoid the shower, your stake is generally voided anyway.
The two most obvious options – both in the betting markets and general groupthink – are blue and orange. They are the colours worn by the two sides competing in this year’s game, and six of the last eight Super Bowls have seen a Gatorade dump of these hues.
Yes, stats exist for the Gatorade shower.
The one trend that stands out is no colour has been replicated two years in a row since 2011, so if you like that pattern to continue, orange seems the safest pick at 15/8, as Tampa Bay’s Bruce Arians took a blue-tinted shower 12 months ago.
National Anthem – Under 101.5 seconds - 5/6
This year’s rendition of the Star-Spangled Banner will be performed by country vocalist Mickey Guyton and it features the shortest over/under line in years.
Traditionally, the national anthem always cracks the 100-second mark, but the line is generally much lower this year. This would usually provide a solid enough reason to back the over, but some digging reveals that Guyton most recently performed the anthem on TV on Memorial Day weekend in the States last year.
I’ve clocked it myself, from first note to last, and on that occasion she had things all wrapped up within 85 seconds.
By all means, Guyton may strive to elongate every single note in what will be the biggest and most-viewed performance of her life – and who could blame her – but ten seconds is still a lengthy period of time to play with, so the under would be my pick for a fun wager before the action gets underway.
Odds correct on 1615 GMT (09/02/22)
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