Sporting Life
Super Bowl LIV keys to victory: What will decide who wins the Super Bowl from the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs?
Super Bowl LIV keys to victory: What will decide who wins the Super Bowl from the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs?

Super Bowl LIV tactical preview: Key tactics and keys to victory for the San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs in Miami

By Matt Temple-Marsh
23:01 · SUN February 02, 2020

Matt Temple-Marsh runs through the major deciding factors that will determine whether the Kansas City Chiefs or San Francisco 49ers will win Super Bowl LIV.

331 pre-season, regular season, and play-off games have led to this point. The Super Bowl is here, with a truly scintillating match-up in store as arguably the best offence takes on the best defence as over 150 million fans tune in around the world.

There aren’t enough superlatives to describe how fast, strong and scary this San Francisco 49ers defence is, but the Kansas City Chiefs boast their own X-Factor, Patrick Mahomes.

Perhaps the best player in the league, Mahomes could have an MVP & a Super Bowl wrapped up by the age of 25. This is proving to be one of the most interesting Super Bowl’s in recent years, but how will it be won? Here’s what to look out for.

Running riot

What sets the Niners apart is their rushing attack, ranked second in the league behind the Baltimore Ravens. The pre-snap motions and misdirection, the willingness from every player to block, and the three-headed dragon of running backs at Kyle Shanahan’s disposal has proved to be nearly unstoppable.

Raheem Mostert climbed his way to the top of the pile after historically running all over the Green Bay Packers, who in fact worryingly have a statistically better rush defence than the Chiefs.

Magical Mahomes

With Mahomes at quarterback, the Chiefs have every right to believe they can win. They are 27-8 with him as their starting quarterback and he’s never lost a game by more than seven points. This post-season he’s displayed just how special he is, posting 615 passing yards with eight touchdowns & no interceptions, alongside leading his team in rushing yards.

The Chiefs quarterback faced double-digit deficits in both play-off games yet he never wavered, leading his team to dominating wins. He will be the best player on the field in Miami, and it isn’t close.

Jimmy G is the real deal

Do not believe the Jimmy Garoppolo slander. When you can out muscle teams with the run, there is no need to pass – Kyle Shanahan has learnt from his infamous ‘28-3’ Super Bowl errors. We are only a month-and-a-half removed from Garoppolo’s epic outing against the New Orleans Saints - 349 passing yards, four touchdowns and a 131.7 passer rating.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in action against Arizona in the NFL

It’s perhaps more pertinent to look at how Garoppolo has performed against mobile quarterbacks this season (Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray & Russell Wilson), since Mahomes has led the Chiefs in rushing yards this post-season.

The Niners quarterback has averaged 287 passing yards & two touchdowns per game, with a 109.5 passer rating, which would rank as the fourth best in the league. When they have needed him to produce, he has delivered.

Ferocious firepower

No quarterback in the NFL has better weapons than Mahomes. Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman have the ability to burn any defensive back and tight end Travis Kelce is a four-time All-Pro, who led the Chiefs in receptions & receiving yards.

Add on Sammy Watkins’ post-season’s resurgence and two of the best offensive tackles in the league (Mitchell Schwartz hasn’t allowed a sack in 782 pass-blocking snaps), and you have the most firepower in the league. Hill lauds about how he cannot be contained in man coverage, and he faces an aging Richard Sherman who recently gave up a 65-yard reception to Davante Adams.

Sack Francisco

The San Francisco 49ers enter the Super Bowl with 57 sacks, a league high. Six teams ever have entered the big dance with over 55 sacks and they’ve all walked away with the Championship. This unit silenced pro-bowler Dalvin Cook, and neutralised Aaron Rodgers.

Mahomes is a different kettle of fish, but they might be able to slow him down. Creating pressure inside, (Chiefs centre & guards have averaged a 62.5 PFF grade this season) will be essential, but Buckner & Armstead are more than up to the task, with 20.5 sacks combined on the season.

Mahomes’ rushing touchdown against the Titans was an amazing play, but the lack of successful tackling from the Titans’ was alarming – don’t expect this from Robert Saleh’s men.

Rising run defence

Kansas City’s defence has drastically improved. The addition of Tyrann Mathieu has helped their pass defence leap from 31st in 2018 to now eighth in 2019, but their rushing defence still poses questions after allowing 128 yards per game (ranked 26th in the NFL).

However, since Week 12 the Chiefs haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher and managed to do what other teams thought was impossible, by keeping Derrick Henry quiet. If the Chiefs can produce another stout rushing defence, it will go a long way to them hoisting the Lombardi trophy, but Shanahan’s zone run attack is somewhat different to the Titan’s bruising rush.

Who will win?

The 49ers simply boast the more complete team. All season long they have dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and they have shown no noticeable weaknesses. The Chiefs’ strategy will be to try to eliminate Shanahan’s ground game, and force Garappolo to beat them with his arm.

Underestimating the Niners quarterback, however, could prove fatal for the Chiefs, as they will rely on more Mahomes magic for any chance in this game. The Niners defensive line will force Mahomes out of the pocket, and Nick Bosa may be one of the few defensive ends in the league who could chase him down.

Expect a high-scoring, electrifying match, where the better all-round team comes out on top.

Super Bowl prediction: 49ers 34-24 Chiefs

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