David John takes Buffalo to bounce back with a start on the handicap against New Orleans in the NFL on Sunday.
New Orleans at Buffalo (1800GMT, Sky Sports Action)
An in-form Buffalo outfit very much fluffed their lines when last seen on Thursday Night Football as they were soundly beaten by the New York Jets in East Rutherford.
Praise from around the league and talk of a potential return to the play-offs for the first time since 1999 was rudely brought back down to earth by a limp display as linebacker Lorenzo Alexander admitted they “all kind of dwelled in the mediocrity all night”.
A final scoreline of 34-21 greatly flattered them as they trailed by 27 points in the fourth quarter while head coach Sean McDermott sported a baffled look on the sideline all evening – the team he had coached to win four of their previous five starts had suddenly gone AWOL.
There were physically dominated on the line of scrimmage from the first whistle as quarterback Tyrod Taylor took seven sacks under constant pressure as the game rapidly slipped from their grasp.
They now revert to an underdog role as they play host to the streaking Saints, who have won six on the spin and hold the second seeding currently in the NFC, and will benefit from a start on the spread.
I like their chance of taking full advantage too at what will be a chilly – rather than frigid - New Era Field as the weather begins to take on a more wintry feel across the northern states.
They are 4-0 at home this season and a vociferous crowd starved of any tangible success for such a long time has at last found a team to get behind.
The ownership’s intention to maintain the momentum and make a real run this season even saw them complete a surprise trade for Kelvin Benjamin.
At 6-5 and 245lbs, he finally provides Taylor with a true No.1 receiving target going forward and although it could still be a little while before they are both exactly on the same page, he should be a significant red zone threat and is 9/4 to score a touchdown anytime.
Their opponents have certainly developed into a surprise package after losing their opening two games and a good deal of their success is down to a string of talented rookies on both sides of the ball quickly finding their feet.
Among the stand-out contributors have been cornerback Marshon Lattimore and gadget running back Alvin Kamara while an ageless Drew Brees at quarterback continues to play at an elite level as he leads the league in completion percentage with only Alex Smith and Tom Brady possessing a higher QB rating.
One interesting stat though is he does have a 4-7 record when the temperature is below 45F and with it forecast to be in the low 40s it should hand some sort of advantage to the hosts, although that is negated somewhat by Brees now being able to lean on a beefed-up running game.
More relevant is McDermott’s record against the Saints as his Carolina defense was on the winning side three out of their last four meetings whilst co-ordinator in Charlotte so he seemingly has Brees figured out more than most.
Combine that with a motivated Bills unit following the display against the Jets and you do have a decent recipe for some sort of bounce-back performance.
Running back LeSean McCoy was almost invisible too that night and has something to prove while don’t underestimate the benefits of a 10-day break for Buffalo in terms of both freshening up and preparing an excellent gameplan – take them with the points.
Prediction: New Orleans 21-23 Buffalo
Recommended bets:
2pts Buffalo (+3.5) to beat New Orleans at 8/11
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Posted at 1055 GMT on 11/11/17.