It’s a case of Monday night delight for NFL fans as, for the second time this season, we are treated to two big games to round off the Week Six action. Ross Williams is on hand to preview the double-header, the first of which gets underway at 10pm UK time.
Recommended bets
1pt Stefon Diggs (BUF) and Tyreek Hill (KC) both to score a touchdown at 4/1
2pts Kansas City Chiefs to beat Buffalo Bills (-5.0) at 10/11
1pt Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) to score a brace of touchdowns at 2/1
2pts Arizona Cardinals to beat Dallas Cowboys (-2.0) at 1/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
Originally slated as a Thursday night contest, this AFC showdown looks likely to be a play-off dress rehearsal. The Bills and the Chiefs represented two of the NFL’s form sides heading into week five, but both teams suffered their first defeats of the campaign last time out, adding an interesting twist to this match-up.
The reigning Super Bowl champions will be eager to get back on track after a disappointing loss to the Raiders on Sunday, while the Bills will still be nursing their wounds on Monday evening, having fallen to the Titans on Tuesday.
The one thing we should expect from this one is points. Both of these offensive units fall into the NFL’s top ten in terms of points scored, and a feature of both sides is a dynamic passing game that regularly rips off long, down-the-field pass plays.
This brings me nicely to my best bet, which includes touchdowns for star receivers Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs.
The case for Tyreek Hill scoring is a pretty simple one to make at the best of times, and the uncertainty surrounding the health of Buffalo’s secondary unit only adds to the likelihood. The speedster already has four touchdowns to his name this season and he thrives against defences that give up big-yardage plays. Buffalo surprisingly own the ninth-worst pass defence in the league this season and with star cornerback Tre’Davious White questionable to suit up on Monday, Hill could have a field day down the field.
Former Minnesota receiver Stefon Diggs has slotted well into the Buffalo offence and he’s put up over 400 yards thus far. However, it’s his reliability in the red-zone that should help us here. A look at the Buffalo injury report tells us that Dawson Knox is out and WR2 John Brown may be a game-time decision. This limits the options of Josh Allen substantially, but leads me to believe that Diggs’ number will be called much more in the red-zone this week. Yes, he’ll be given extra attention by the Chiefs’ defence, but Diggs has the ability to rise above that and put points on the board for the Bills.
As for the result itself, it’s very difficult to imagine the Chiefs losing twice on the bounce. Patrick Mahomes and company are breath-taking at their best, and even when things aren’t going to plan it’s impossible to count them out. The Raiders loss will still be hurting, but let’s not forget that Kansas City lost games they weren’t supposed to lose last season too. Their mindset never seemed to change then, and I don’t think it will now.
The midweek addition of Le’Veon Bell to the roster has added further positivity and, with the Bills still relatively beat up, all the signs point to the Chiefs bouncing back in a big way. Kansas City have already beaten good teams in Houston, Baltimore and New England by two-score margins this season and with that knowledge in mind, I feel that they will pull away from the Bills in the second half on Tuesday night and cover the five-point spread.
- Request-A-Bet: Josh Allen & Patrick Mahomes 300+ Passing Yards Each at 9/4
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
It’s impossible to ignore the key narrative here. For the first time since he took over the starting job in Dallas, the Cowboys are set to go into a game without quarterback Dak Prescott at the helm.
The horrific injury suffered in the Cowboys’ win over New York on Sunday sent shockwaves around the league and it’s impossible to truly know how ‘America’s Team’ will respond this week. Former Bengals QB Andy Dalton took over in the latter stages of that game and led them to victory, but does the former Cincinnati man have enough in his locker to beat a better team in the Cardinals?
That’s the dilemma put forward this week, and the question that will be posed a thousand times before the game gets underway. However, that really shouldn’t be the way to look at this match-up – at least from a betting point of view.
Ultimately, the loss of Dak Prescott forces the hand of the Cowboys. By default, they are going to be less proficient through the air – despite the best efforts of the serviceable Dalton – so it’s time for Dallas to go back to basics and commit to the run game.
Dalton shouldn’t worry about beating the Cardinals, he just has to remain largely error-free so Ezekiel Elliott can do the damage himself on the ground. Arizona’s run defence is patchy at best, averaging a loss of 124.2 yards per game, and the recent injury to Chandler Jones should help out Elliott even more.
If the Cowboys’ star running back can finally get on a roll this week, this could be the game where he breaks out and puts up the kind of numbers we have come to expect in recent years.
Will this be enough to secure the win, though? Unfortunately for Dallas, I don’t think so.
If the run game does indeed pick up, the Cowboys will certainly be able to put points on the Cardinals on Monday night, but that’s only half the story.
Defensively, Dallas are the worst NFL team in history through the first five games of the season. The numbers are damning and with no fresh personnel on the roster, it’s hard to see where the improvements will come. They’ve shipped a massive 180 points already this season (36 PPG) and they are yet to come up against a quarterback with a legitimate ground game, despite owning the fifth-worse defence in the league against the run.
Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray might be the best in the league when it comes to using his legs to make plays so, unless Dallas have drastically improved on the training field in the last seven days, this game could prove to be the perfect storm. Mike McCarthy’s team will also have to deal with Kenyan Drake – a player who hasn’t caught fire yet this season, but always possesses the threat of breaking off a big run when he’s shown the outside.
A point-fest is on the cards, but with all things considered, the match-up of Kyler Murray vs the Cowboys defence looks likely to be more fruitful than the Cowboys’ ground game vs the Cardinals’ defence. Arizona get the job done, and with the line at a measly -1.5 points, it’s worth pushing that value a touch further with an alternative.
Odds correct as of 1620 BST on 18/10/20
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