Free NFL betting tips: Week Seven including Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers
Ross Williams takes a look at Week Seven of the NFL season, previewing the big match-ups from the early Sunday slate and providing his four best bets of the weekend.
Recommended bets
1pt Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Tennessee Titans at 21/20
2pts Green Bay Packers (-3) to beat the Houston Texans at 5/6
1pt Josh Allen & Stefon Diggs both to score a Touchdown in Buffalo Bills v New York Jets at 9/2
1pt Carolina Panthers (+4.0) to beat the New Orleans Saints at 11/8
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Almost certainly the game of the week pits the 5-0 Steelers against the 5-0 Titans in a contest that will truly get the juices flowing. There has only been a handful of occasions in NFL history where two undefeated teams have faced off at this stage of the season and, in each case, the victor has ended their campaign in the Super Bowl. Needless to say, the stakes are high in Nashville on Sunday evening.
The battle between the Titans’ offence and the Steelers’ defence will take centre stage here, and rightly so.
Tennessee have surpassed all expectations of them in the last year and they are right on the cusp of being considered serious Championship contenders thanks to the remarkable Derrick Henry and the extraordinary quarterback play of Ryan Tannehill. The Titans’ attack is potent to say the least, and the stats back it up. As things stand, only Seattle’s offence is higher-scoring.
However, on Sunday the Titans’ offence faces its stiffest task yet, and probably the biggest challenge it will face all year. The Steelers are simply remarkable defensively and (importantly) own the second-best record against the run in the NFL, behind only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Pittsburgh concede just 66.2 yards on the ground on average and although Derrick Henry is a special breed of player that will likely surpass that figure, it’s very possible that the Steelers fill the box on Sunday and contain the league’s leading rusher to his quietest day of the season so far.
This turns the contest on its head, and will force Ryan Tannehill to outscore Ben Roethlisberger through the air.
This is where Pittsburgh gain the upper hand. Although the two offences are fairly evenly-matched, the Steelers are far better against the pass. Tennessee are bottom-five in the NFL when it comes to pass yardage and with the likes of Chase Claypool in such good form for Pittsburgh, this is how I believe Big Ben and the Steelers will undo their underdog status in this match-up and claim the win.
Best bet: Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Tennessee Titans at 21/20
Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans
Don’t make Aaron Rodgers angry.
Much like a fellow superhero synonymous with the colour green, A-Rod is a nightmare to deal with when he’s on the warpath. The Green Bay quarterback was enjoying an MVP-calibre year until Tampa Bay stopped him in his tracks last weekend, and it’s doubtful the former Super Bowl champion will have taken that beating at the hands of the Buccaneers lightly.
The Packers successfully rebounded after each of their three regular season defeats last year and there’s little reason to believe they won’t do so again this time around. Star receiver Davante Adams is also a week healthier as the Packers head to Texas.
The Texans took a powerful Tennessee team to overtime last week, to their credit, but their leaky defence makes this contest a mouth-watering prospect for Rodgers and his high-powered offence. Only two teams in the NFL ship more yards-per-game than the Texans and few teams are more proficient at turning yardage into points than Green Bay. The three-point head-start will not be enough for Houston in this one.
Best bet: Green Bay Packers (-3) to beat the Houston Texans at 5/6
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
There is little point mincing words when it comes to discussing the New York Jets. Through six weeks of the season, they are quite simply the worst NFL team I’ve ever seen.
Adam Gase’s men in green have been completely hopeless so far this year, and there’s no indication that things are going to pick up anytime soon. The Jets are 0-6, own the fourth-worst defence in the league and average just 12.5 points per game. No other team in the league averages less than 17.
The Buffalo Bills recovering from a two-game slide to win this divisional game is a near certainty. The Bills are 1/6 to win the game, so there’s no value there. They are, however, -10.5 on the handicap, which could be seen as quite generous to the Jets considered their most recent appearance was a 24-0 drubbing at the hands of the Dolphins, a team that lacks the talent of Buffalo.
Taking Buffalo on the handicap is certainly in play here, but more value still comes from the touchdown scorer markets. The Bills will be eager to make a statement after two straight defeats (albeit to strong opposition in the Titans and the Chiefs) and so, it’s fair to say we can expect points from the visitors.
The double of Josh Allen, who loves a scamper into the end-zone from the quarterback position, and Stefon Diggs looks to be a nice little play at a solid price. Diggs pulled in an exceptional catch against Kansas City last week to score and the Jets simply do not have the cornerback talent to contain a receiver of his ability. Look for Diggs to find himself open in the red-zone yet again on Sunday.
Best bet: Josh Allen & Stefon Diggs both to score a Touchdown at 9/2
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
I’m going against conventional wisdom with this selection, but I think there’s strong justification behind Matt Rhule’s Carolina team (at least) keeping this close.
Teams coming off the bye week are traditionally strong, especially when they’re playing at home. Therefore, the Saints have an obvious advantage here over their NFC South rivals.
However, Carolina have proven to be one of the surprise packages of the season so far. Despite being without star running back Christian McCaffrey for much of the campaign, the Panthers haven’t rested on their laurels and settled into damage limitation mode. Instead, they plugged Mike Davis into the RB1 spot and set about taking scalps as underdogs.
Once again, the Panthers are not favoured in this one, but I’m not quite brazen enough to suggest that they will upset the odds again and take down the Saints in the Superdome. All told, a mostly fresh New Orleans outfit should be strong enough to beat the Panthers, and I think they will.
But, the seven points that Carolina are receiving on the handicap seems steep to me and that’s why I’m suggesting taking Carolina with an alternative spread of 4 points. The key to this one is that the Saints will be without both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders on Sunday, which significantly reduces their efficiency through the air and their ability to put on points.
Add in the fact that this game represents Teddy Bridgewater’s return to New Orleans and I can foresee a game that will surpass expectations and delight any neutrals watching. I like a fresh Drew Brees to lead the Saints to victory when all is said and done, but only by a field goal.
Best bet: Carolina Panthers (+4.0) to beat the New Orleans Saints at 11/8
Odds correct at 1530 BST (24/10/20)
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