NFL Week 4 Midweek Update: Winners, losers and key injuries
Ahead of NFL Week 4, OddsCritic looks at the key injuries and trends to help find the value in the betting markets.
We are now three weeks into the 2021 season and things are really hotting up in the National Football League.
Patrick Mahomes is no longer a clear favourite in the race to be league MVP and the betting to win Super Bowl LVI is becoming more competitive by the minute.
Mahomes and the Chiefs - who started the 2021 season as clear market leaders - have now dropped two in a row, and Tom Brady and the reigning champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers have their first loss too.
Let’s look at some of the things we learned from Week 3, and ahead to some of the NFL betting pointers for this weekend’s schedule.
Injury Report
The phrase ‘next man up’ is one you’ll hear a lot from NFL coaches. It’s a brutal league and a brutal game, and here are some of the key injuries from Week 3
AJ Brown (WR, Tennessee Titans): Sunday was generally a pretty good day for the Titans as they defeated divisional rival Indianapolis to move to 2-1, condemning the Colts to an 0-3 start in the process. Brown left the game with a hamstring injury though, and if that slows him significantly it will be a blow to a Titans offense, and allow opposing coordinators to focus more on stopping Julio Jones.
Quenton Nelson (OG, Indianapolis Colts): Nelson had already undergone surgery on a fractured foot during training camp, and he added to Indy’s woes on Sunday when he left the loss to Tennessee with a sprained ankle. No confirmation yet as to when he will return, but yet more misery for a Colts team which is already in big trouble in the race to win the AFC South.
Kwity Paye (DE, Indianapolis Colts): Another blow for Indy as first-round draft pick Paye exited the loss in Tennessee with a hamstring injury he had already been playing through. Like Nelson, his status for this weekend’s trip to Miami to face the Dolphins is uncertain.
Blake Martinez (LB, New York Giants): Big Blue is another 0-3 team with mounting injury concerns. The latest shocker came on Sunday when middle linebacker Martinez tore his ACL in a heart-breaking loss to Atlanta and is gone for the year. These are grim times in East Rutherford.
Isaac Seumalo (OG, Philadelphia Eagles): Seumalo suffered a season-ending Lisfranc injury in Monday’s 41-21 rout by Dallas. Philly already had major issues up front with right guard Brandon Brooks on IR and left tackle Jordan Mailata missing the game in Arlington due to a knee injury. Good job Jalen Hurts can run…
K’Von Wallace (DB, Philadelphia Eagles): As well as losing Seumalo in Dallas, Philly ended the game with stand-in starting safety Wallace heading for IR after suffering a partially separated shoulder. Not ideal when you are preparing to face Mahomes and the Chiefs this weekend. If the loss in Dallas was bad enough, things could be about to get really ugly.
Justin Hollins (LB, Los Angeles Rams): A torn pectoral muscle took a little of the gloss off that terrific win over the Bucs on Sunday. Hollins had been excellent in helping the Rams to a 3-0 start and he is expected to miss 8-10 weeks after undergoing surgery.
Jamel Dean (CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers): There were fears Dean’s 2021 might be over when he left the loss to the Rams with a knee injury. It appears the injury is not season-ending but he is a doubt for Brady’s return to New England this weekend. The latest blow for a secondary which has struggled so far in 2021. No wonder the Bucs are looking to get a deal done with veteran free agent Richard Sherman.
Jaycee Horn (CB, Carolina Panthers): Horn was Carolina’s first-round pick in the 2021 Draft and had made a promising start to his pro career before sustaining a foot injury in the Thursday night win over Houston. Horn will now miss an extended period of time after undergoing surgery - a blow for a defense which has been the league’s best through three weeks.
Trending North
The Dallas Cowboys: Dallas looked terrific in that 41-21 demolition of divisional rival Philadelphia, and it now leads the NFC East standings after three weeks of the season. Dak Prescott looked as good as ever on Monday night, while Ezekiel Elliott appeared fresher than he has for some time. Even without injured WR Michael Gallup, the ‘Boys have enough weapons to beat just about anybody offensively. The defense though is the unit which is really outperforming expectations. Second-year cornerback Trevon Diggs is developing into one of the league’s finest ballhawks after snagging three interceptions in three games to start the year. Up front Dallas didn’t appear to miss injured DE Demarcus Lawrence too much as rookies Micah Parsons and Osa Odighizuwa spent most of the evening in the Philadelphia backfield. The loss of Lawrence was one of a string of injuries to hit the Dallas defense, and they are down to bare bones in terms of the front seven. So far though, new DC Dan Quinn appears to be getting the very best out of his somewhat limited resources.
Matthew Stafford: Impossible to leave Stafford out this week. When the Rams pulled the trigger on that blockbuster trade to acquire him from the Lions, experts were split on whether they’d overspent. So far though it appears the union of Stafford and boy genius HC Sean McVay is a match made in heaven. Stafford was excellent this past Sunday as he threw for 343 yards and four touchdowns in that 34-24 defeat of Super Bowl champions Tampa Bay. We have to admit we were very much in the ‘prove it’ camp when Stafford moved to L.A., but so far the former #1 overall pick is proving it, and proving us wrong.
Aaron Rodgers: Including high-profile QBs in this category could get a little boring - we’ll give you that - but two weeks ago Aaron had questions to answer after a horrific showing in that brutal Week 1 loss to New Orleans. All he has done since is destroy the Lions on Monday Night Football and then produce a trademark last-gasp comeback to beat the 49ers in San Francisco. We are still not sure the Pack are quite as good as 2020, but with Rodgers appearing to be back at his best they will remain a test for anybody.
Ja’Marr Chase: When the Bengals drafted Chase at #5 overall, and not highly-rated offensive tackle Penei Sewell, many experts felt they’d made a big mistake. How could Cincy, having seen rookie QB Joe Burrow going down with a devastating knee injury in 2020, not put all of their resources into protecting his health? Well it turns out drafting his BFF wide receiver from LSU instead wasn’t a bad move after all. ‘Burrow to Chase’ figures to become a household NFL term in the coming years, and Ja’Marr now has 4 TDs in three pro game - coming on just 11 catches at 20 yards a pop. The epitome of a big-play threat and one who should improve further as the season progresses.
Maxx Crosby: The Raiders defensive end, a fourth-round draft pick in 2019, looks terrific value right now as he blossoms into a real leader on a 3-0 team. He didn’t add to his sack tally during Sunday’s overtime defeat of Miami, but he did register six pressures to continue his progression into a real force in 2021. He is a cornerstone of a Vegas pass rush which is proving to be a nightmare for opposing offenses. Next Monday night the Raiders take on the Chargers in a key divisional matchup, and they need to get to Justin Herbert early and often. Over to you Mr Crosby.
Trending South
Houston Offense: Hardly surprising given the gloomy preseason predictions, but things could yet get even worse for the undermanned Texans. With Tyrod Taylor injured and Deshaun Watson under a cloud, Houston had to send out Davis Mills at QB for the Thursday night matchup against the NFL’s best defense in Charlotte. The results were predictably horrific. Mills struggled to complete anything against the Panthers until the dying embers of a one-sided game. That win over Jacksonville now seems an awful long time ago.
Ben Roethlisberger: We could be watching the beginning of the end for ‘Big Ben’ as an elite QB. He again struggled as Pittsburgh dropped its second straight game, this time to divisional rival Cincinnati. Roethlisberger is getting rid of the ball very quickly per PFF stats, but that isn’t a good thing. It’s more a sign he is tired of the beatings he has taken down the years, not confidence in hitting his first read. A struggling offensive line and faltering running game just exacerbates everything for Ben right now, and the results are not pretty.
Rookie Quarterbacks: As we mention regularly, there are always growing pains for first-year signal callers when they enter the pro game - no matter how good they are. Week 3 was the poster boy for that fact as some potentially elite talents suffered dreadful days:
- #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence was woeful as the Jags fell to 0-3
- Justin Fields just 6 of 20 for 68 yards as Chicago lost 26-6 to Cleveland
- Zach Wilson and the Jets were shut out 26-0 by a marauding Denver ‘D’
- Mac Jones threw three picks as New England lost to the Saints
Great QB talents don’t often go to good teams, that’s the way the draft works. Things generally tend to get worse before they get better.
Tampa Bay Secondary: The aforementioned injury to Jamel Dean won’t improve things here, and like we said - there’s a reason they are talking to Sherman. Tampa was torched by Matthew Stafford last Sunday and it now officially owns the league’s worst-ranked pass defense. It is #32 of 32, giving up a dire 338 yards per game. We still like Tampa to win the NFC South, but that isn’t the end goal here - another Super Bowl is. There is much to be fixed.
Kadarius Toney: When the Giants spent a first-round pick on speedy Florida wideout Toney, he was expected to help Daniel Jones become an elite passer. Three weeks into his rookie season and Toney has been almost invisible as Big Blue has slumped to an 0-3 start. Just four receptions for 14 yards is not the return expected from a premium draft pick, even if transitioning to the pro game is not easy.
Game Of The Week
Carolina @ Dallas
- Sunday, October 3, 1800 BST
While Brady’s return to Foxboro will earn most of the media column inches this weekend, it isn’t the best game scheduled for Week 4.That accolade could easily go to the Panthers’ visit to Texas to take on the Cowboys. The NFL’s best defense through Week 3 vs one of the best offenses around. Dak Prescott has been stellar so far on his return from last year’s season-ending ankle injury, while Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard team up in a formidable backfield tandem. This weekend they come up against a stout Panthers D with a ton of young talent which ranks #1 so far against both run and pass. Something has to give.