Sporting Life
Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best bets for Week 14 in the NFL
Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best bets for Week 14 in the NFL

Free NFL betting tips: Value touchdown scorers for Week 14

By Matt Temple-Marsh
NFL
Sat December 12, 2020 · 4y ago

After a number of winners across recent weeks, and playing a part in a 10/1 winning RAB on Thursday, Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best bets for Week 14.

NFL Week 14 recommended bets

1pt Darnell Mooney anytime in Chicago Bears v Houston Texans at 7/2

1pt Carolina Panthers defence/special teams anytime v Denver Broncos at 11/2

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Sure, Dalvin Cook looks like he’ll score every single week – but at 4/11 for an anytime touchdown, the value simply isn’t there.

In this article I’ll be looking for offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.

Chicago Bears v Houston Texans

The Bradley Roby-less Texans secondary allowed T.Y. Hilton to go off for 110 yards and a score last week, as they have now conceded 16 touchdowns to WRs on the season (3rd worst in the league).

Darnell Mooney’s target share is increasing, with 28 targets in his last four games. It’s his big play potential that will be key here – he has 28 deep ball targets on the season, that’s the 10th most in the league. We saw Hilton beat this defence last week, so expect the same from the Bears’ speedster.

Cole Kmet has become TE1 in Chicago, but he’s still priced as TE2. In his past three games he’s ran more routes than Jimmy Graham, and against the Lions last Sunday he had a huge 21% target share, as he found the end zone.

Houston have allowed the sixth most yards in the league to TEs, so Kmet is likely in store for another plus-matchup. Take advantage of this high price before its gone next week.

Carolina Panthers v Denver Broncos

This is the first time I’ve tipped a defence in this article, but it’s for a good reason: Drew Lock, the walking interception machine. He’s thrown 13 picks in his last seven games, as he’s completing just 55.4% of his passes.

This Panthers defence is young, but they’re improving every week with playmakers on every level.

They’re coming off two monster games, with five sacks & one fumble recovery against the Lions, and a simply ridiculous game against the Vikings – two sacks, two forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries and even two touchdowns from rookie Jeremy Chinn.

Expect more of the same against Locks’ Broncos.

Detroit Lions v Green Bay Packers

The Detroit Lions are the most porous team in the league to running backs. They have allowed the position to score a HUGE 23 touchdowns – the second worst in the league is just 16.

They’re on the verge of a major rebuild, and have nothing to play for but just a high draft pick. The Packers are flying high at 9-3, and will handle business with ease against the lacklustre Lions.

This will be a very positive game script, so we can expect an increase in rushes, particularly so from backups – enter Jamaal Williams.

Even as a backup Williams gets serious volume, with 103 carries on the season. He’s averaged a 46.9% snap count on the season, and with the Packers keen to rest starters ahead of crucial matches, we know Williams will get more opportunities.

Los Angeles Chargers v Atlanta Falcons

Bill Belichick against rookie quarterbacks is virtually unfair, as the Patriots completely neutralised the Chargers - but we can expect a bounce-back game for Justin Herbert.

The Falcons defence on the road is giving up over 400 yards per game, and they have the joint second overall worst defence to TEs.

Hunter Henry has seen at least seen targets in eight games this season, and in his past five games he’s seen six red zone targets. Expect Henry to find the end zone.

Odds correct at 1300 GMT (12/12/20)

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