Sporting Life
Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best value touchdown scorers for Week Eleven
Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best value touchdown scorers for Week Eleven

Free NFL betting tips: Value touchdown scorers for Week 11 including Nyheim Hines and Jakobi Myers

By Matt Temple-Marsh
NFL
Mon November 23, 2020 · 4y ago

After returning profit in last week's preview, Matt Temple-Marsh is searching for more and has five players to back in the touchdown markets.

Recommended bets

1pt Damien Harris anytime in Houston Texans v New England Patriots at 6/4

1pt Nyheim Hines anytime in Indianapolis Colts v Green Bay Packers at 13/10

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Sure, Ezekiel Elliott looks like he’ll score every single week – but at 1/2 for an anytime touchdown, the value simply isn’t there.

In this article I’ll be looking for offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.

Los Angeles Chargers v New York Jets

Against the Dolphins, Ballage led all Chargers running backs in snaps, rushes & receptions, and whilst he didn’t find the end zone last week - I fancy him to punch it in this time round.

Last week, Ballage carried the ball 18 times & caught five catches too, representing promising volume, and he faces Joe Flacco’s lacklustre Jets. Against RBs, the Jets have conceded nine total TDs – stacking up as the sixth worst defence in the league to the position.

The Chargers officially named Ballage the lead back, so with a very positive game script on the cards, a brace could be great value here too at 9/1.

Indianapolis Colts v Green Bay Packers

Nyheim Hines is the most talented RB the Colts have, and they’re starting to realise it. Last week Hines ran the ball for 12 times (a season high, and team high last week), while hauling in five catches as he went off for two touchdowns.

This game is tantalising to say the least, and the Colts can win if they target Green Bay’s poor run defence. They have allowed 15 total TDs to the position this year, alongside over 1,300 yards.

There’s serious brace potential here with Hines too (8/1), if the Colts trust the hot hand.

Houston Texans v New England Patriots

  • When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
  • TV: NFL Redzone on Sky Sports Mix/Free to watch on Sky Bet

The Houston Texans have given up over 200 more rushing yards to running backs than any other team, alongside 11 touchdowns to the position - they cannot stop the run.

Harris is growing into the lead back that the Patriots need more and more every week, as he notched his third 100+ yard game last Sunday.

Somehow Harris has only found the end zone once this year, but he represents great value against this porous Texans D, in a game with a huge coaching mismatch. This should be business as usual for the Patriots, as they pound the ball early & often.

Nobody predicted this Myers usage, at all.

Through the last three games he has 31 targets, with 21 catches. PFF have him graded as the THIRD best WR all season?! Myers is getting serious volume and regularly producing, but he’s still yet to find the end zone this year.

I like his chances against the Texans – their DB group has allowed 13 touchdowns through nine games to WRs, ranking as the joint second worst in the league.

Washington Football Team v Cincinnati Bengals

Since Week Two, the Bengals’ defence has allowed over 28 points per game in a flurry of high scoring contests and brutal blowouts.

Statically they rank up as the second worst defence in the league to TEs, and Logan Thomas is turning into a crucial member of Washington’s offence. He’s seen at least four targets every week this season, and has eight red zone targets on the year.

This is his best matchup of the season, in what will be a high scoring shoot-out.

Odds correct at 2000 GMT (20/11/20)

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