Sporting Life
Matt Temple-Marsh picks out the best value touchdown scorers for Week Ten
Matt Temple-Marsh picks out the best value touchdown scorers for Week Ten

Free NFL betting tips: Value touchdown scorers for Week 10 games including Los Angeles Rams v Seattle Seahawks

By Matt Temple-Marsh
NFL
Sun November 15, 2020 · 4y ago

Matt Temple-Marsh has scoured through the touchdown scorer markets for some extra value in Week 10 of the NFL.

Recommended bets

1pt Josh Reynolds to score anytime in Los Angeles Rams v Seattle Seahawks at 2/1

1pt Kyler Murray to score a brace in Arizona Cardinals v Buffalo Bills at 3/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Sure, Ezekiel Elliott looks like he’ll score every single week – but at 1/2 for an anytime touchdown, the value simply isn’t there.

In this article I’ll be looking for offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.

Los Angeles Rams v Seattle Seahawks

In his last two games Josh Reynolds has seen 21% of Goff’s pass attempts, and that averages out to 16% in his last six games. Reynolds has become a key member of this offence, with two touchdowns in his last three games.

He faces the Seahawks, who stack up as the worst defence in the league to WRs. This price is too high for Reynolds, he’s going to be heavily involved in this high-scoring game.

Detroit Lions v Washington Football Team

Against the Giants, McKissic saw a HUGE 35.9% of Washington’s targets – catching 9 of 14 for 64 yards. Alex Smith coming in to replace the injured Kyle Allen bodes well for McKissic, with the frequency that Smith dumps it off to his running backs.

McKissic has seen a 17% target share on the season, and that number will only continue to rise. Somehow the running back still hasn’t found his way into the endzone, but he has 9 red zone touches on the year, and is definitely due a score.

McKissic is guaranteed to get volume, and this price is attractive enough to see him go for six.

New York Giants v Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Reagor’s return from injury wasn’t spectacular, but he did score a touchdown and manage a target share over 23%. Reagor is an electric receiver and getting more comfortable with this offence every week.

He faces the Giants who have the seventh ranked worst defence to WRs, and with James Bradberry likely covering Travis Fulgham, it could be a huge Sunday for Reagor.

In his past three games Engram has been targeted 29 times, as he has established himself as Jones’ favourite weapon. Drops are becoming a real issue for Engram, but he finally caught a touchdown against Washington last week, and over the past three contests he has seen five red zone targets.

He faces an Eagles’ defence that cannot stop TEs - they rank as the joint third worst in the league to the position, with 476 yards & six touchdowns surrendered.

Arizona Cardinals v Buffalo Bills

Kyler Murray scrambling is the best play in the NFL. The quarterback has eight rushing touchdowns in as many games this season, and he’s fresh off a 106 yard rushing performance against the competent Dolphins’ defence.

Murray is playing at an MVP calibre, and faces the Bills in arguably the game of the week – they’re going to have a problem trying to stop him.

Whether we look at the stats for a quarterback or a running back (however you want to class Murray’s scrambling), it doesn’t look good for Buffalo. They’ve conceded four rushing TDs to QBs (second worst in the league), and nine rushing TDs to RBs (third worst in the league).

We know Buffalo’s secondary is loaded, so expect the Cardinals’ receivers to be locked up and Kyler to take the game into his own hands.

Odds correct as of 1915 GMT on 13/11/2020

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