We are now deep into the 2021 NFL regular season, with Week 14 in the books.
Whether it is going against the spread or putting together exotic parlay picks, you now have plenty of evidence to sift through when making your NFL betting predictions.
Our midweek update is intended to inform you with some intel to take on the bookmakers each weekend. So without further ado, let’s get into it.
Injury Report
COVID-19: The pandemic is really starting to cause major issues in NFL locker rooms as we approach the business end of the regular season. Monday saw 36 players added to the league’s COVID-19 list after testing positive. That’s the highest since the list was implemented in 2020. Among the high-profile players testing positive were Rams CB Jalen Ramsey, who missed the win over Arizona on Monday Night Football.
Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore Ravens): Things looked decidedly bleak for the already injury-hit Ravens when the former league MVP was carted off the field during Sunday’s 24-22 loss to Cleveland. Mercifully it appears the ankle sprain he suffered is not serious, and he could yet start in this weekend’s crucial showdown with Green Bay.
Tyron Smith (LT, Dallas Cowboys): Tyron being injured is a staple of the second half of most seasons these days. Those years of playing at an All Pro level have started to wear down the man mountain who protects Dak Prescott’s blind side. Smith aggravated his ankle injury during Sunday’s win in Washington, and will now miss this weekend’s visit to New York to face the Giants. If you like Dallas to go deep in the post-season it is worth monitoring this narrative - Dallas without Smith is just not the same team.
Kareem Hunt (RB, Cleveland Browns): No sooner than Hunt returned from a spell on IR, he is out again. The Browns back left Sunday’s win over Baltimore with an ankle injury and he is now unlikely to face Las Vegas in a Saturday game in Week 15. D’Ernest Johnson is expected to get more work alongside Nick Chubb this weekend.
Leonard Williams (DE, New York Giants): Another big problem for the banged-up Giants. Not only did they have to start Mike Glennon again (ugh) in Sunday’s loss to Justin Herbert and the Chargers, they lost Williams to an elbow injury. Reports suggest it is likely to be season-ending, dealing another blow to 4-9 Big Blue. The end of 2021 cannot come soon enough.
Derwin James (S, Los Angeles Chargers): Derwin was a late addition to the injury report for Sunday’s win over the Giants after sustaining a hamstring injury. The Chargers are reportedly hopeful James should be good to go against Kansas City on Thursday night but that must be in doubt coming off a short week.
Austin Ekeler (RB, Los Angeles Chargers): Ekeler gave the Chargers another headache when he left that win over the Giants with an ankle injury. HC Brandon Staley opened Chiefs week by saying Ekeler is “fine” so we can only presume he will start against KC on TNF.
Terry McLaurin (WR, Washington Football Team): McLaurin left Sunday’s loss to Dallas with a concussion, and now he must clear protocol if he is to face the Eagles in a crucial matchup of 6-7 teams on Sunday. The Football Team is still currently in a post-season berth, but that will change with a loss Sunday and it can ill afford to go in without McLaurin.
Taylor Heinicke (QB, Washington Football Team): Heinicke took a brutal beating from a fearsome Dallas front on Sunday, before eventually leaving the 27-20 loss with a knee injury. Kyle Allen was left to finish off that game but after undergoing an MRI, reports suggest Heinicke will be good to go vs Philly this weekend.
NFL Playoff Picture - Current Seedings
We are fast approaching the time of year when playoff talk ceases to become a dream and pretty quickly turns into reality. Things are looking good for Green Bay right now - newly in possession of the #1 seed in the NFC. Not so much for Buffalo though in the AFC...
If the post-season started now, these are the teams who would be playing deeper into January:
American Football Conference (AFC)
- New England Patriots (9-4)
- Tennessee Titans (9-4)
- Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
- Buffalo Bills (7-6)
On the bubble: Cleveland Browns (7-6), Cincinnati Bengals (7-6), Denver Broncos (7-6), Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6-1).
National Football Conference (NFC)
- Green Bay Packers (10-3)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3)
- Arizona Cardinals (10-3)
- Dallas Cowboys (9-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
- San Francisco 49ers (7-6)
- Washington Football Team (6-7)
On the bubble: Minnesota Vikings (6-7), Philadelphia Eagles (6-7), Atlanta Falcons (6-7), New Orleans Saints (6-7).
Remember, the top four seeds in each conference go to the division winners. The next three go to the teams who are not top of their division but have the best records in the conference. They are the wild cards.
The top seed in each conference receives a first-round bye in the playoffs along with homefield advantage throughout the postseason.
Against The Spread: Which NFL teams are best?
If you’re looking to bet against the spread (ATS), it always pays to know which teams you might be able to bank on.
You’ll note that those plucky Lions - not content with just savouring a first win of 2021 - are consistently good in outperforming lowly expectations. Arizona meanwhile - absolute money on the road.
Here’s an updated list of the best teams around at covering so far in 2021:
Game Of The Week
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (Friday December 17, 0120 GMT)
Probably the two most exciting quarterbacks in the NFL do battle in front of the primetime cameras on Thursday Night Football - what’s not to like?
Patrick Mahomes vs Justin Herbert provides a mouthwatering treat for pigskin fans to kick off the Week 15 slate of games.
Mahomes and the Chiefs travel into SoFi Stadium on the back of six straight wins, topped off by that 48-9 rout of Las Vegas last Sunday. But it’s the KC defense which has been the surprise key to success - allowing less than 11 points per game during that stretch.
On Thursday night that Chiefs defense comes up against the red-hot Herbert - who torched the Giants last Sunday, notably on an incredible 59-yard TD pass to Jalen Guyton at the end of the first half. Justin, like Mahomes, is a thing of beauty to watch when he is hot.
Kick back on the couch, load up on popcorn and enjoy the game...