Deebo Samuel

NFL Midweek Update: Playoff schedule, injury report & Divisional fallout

By OddsCritic

NFL

Tue January 25, 2022 · 3y ago

We are now deep into the NFL post-season, right at the business end of the 2021 season.

Just four teams remain in with a chance of lifting the Vince Lombardi trophy at SoFi Stadium next month, after a breathtaking weekend which saw Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen all exit stage left.

Whether it is picking against the spread or homing in on NFL prop bets, you now have plenty of evidence to sift through when making your pigskin picks.

Our midweek update is intended to inform you with some intel to take on the bookmakers each weekend. So without further ado, let’s get into it.

NFL Playoff Schedule

The new expanded NFL playoff schedule kicked off with the first ever Super Wild Card Weekend - featuring games across Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Then last weekend we had four incredible games as Cincinnati, San Francisco, the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City all won thrillers to advance to the semi-finals.

Now we move on to the Conference Championship weekend. Here is the schedule, complete with early spreads (all kickoff times are UK):

Sunday January 30

2000: AFC, Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
2330: NFC, San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

Injury Report

Our injury report is not intended to be exhaustive, but it highlights key narratives which will affect betting for the weekend’s biggest games:

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals have a banged-up defensive front as they prepare to make the trip to Arrowhead to face Kansas City. Not the ideal scenario when Patrick Mahomes is lying in wait to carve you up.

With Larry Ogunjobi already on IR, Cincy could ill afford to suffer more injuries to its DL in the Divisional round in Tennessee, but that’s exactly what happened.

Tackle Josh Tupou managed just five snaps before a knee injury forced him out, while end Cam Semple lasted only 19 plays before aggravating a groin injury.

If all this wasn’t enough, star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson failed to make it to the final gun after coming through concussion protocol just to suit up.

The Bengals will need everybody healthy and raring to go if they are to limit a Chiefs offense which has put up 84 points in two playoff games so far.

Of course you might say they should be worried about the other side of the ball, after Joe Burrow spent most of the afternoon in Tennessee on his back looking up at the stars. He was sacked nine (NINE) times, tying an NFL playoff record.

Despite the constant pressure in his face, Burrow still managed to throw for 348 yards - he is some talent. More of the same will undoubtedly be required this weekend.

Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs: The biggest concern for Kansas City coming out of the terrific win over the Bills was safety Tyrann Mathieu. The ‘Honey Badger’ left the game with a concussion and will need to come through protocol to face the Bengals.

This is not ideal for the Chiefs, who will face the aforementioned Burrow and a highly talented Bengals receiving corps, led by sensational rookie Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

Mathieu is not the only member of the KC secondary struggling to be fit to face Cincinnati either. CB Rashad Fenton has missed both playoff games so far with a back injury, and there is no word yet about his status for Championship weekend.

There was really positive news on the other side of the ball with WR Tyreek Hill clearly back to full health after being hobbled in the closing stages of the regular season by a foot injury.

‘Cheetah’ might be the NFL’s most exciting sight when he hits top gear, and the way he sliced through the Bills defense for a 64-yard TD reception on Sunday bodes well for the remainder of the post-season.

San Francisco 49ers: All-Pro LT Trent Williams left Lambeau Field on crutches following his team’s famous 13-10 win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Saturday night.

Williams had his right ankle taped during the third quarter and though he only missed one snap, he was limping for the remainder of the evening. The Niners will be desperate for a healthy Trent to suit up with the likes of Aaron Donald and Von Miller across the line of scrimmage at SoFi on Sunday. X-rays came back negative, but his status remains uncertain at this point.

San Fran also had concerns over the multi-talented WR/RB Deebo Samuel, who left the field twice in Green Bay - first after a brutal hit on a reception over the middle and then after taking a helmet to the knee. Deebo is possibly THE key catalyst for Kyle Shanahan’s offensive wizardry so his absence on Sunday would be a major blow - thankfully the Niners seem confident he’ll be good to go.

Running back Jeff Wilson meanwhile has an ankle sprain but San Fran is hopeful he will have a chance to figure on Sunday.

Defensively the Niners were terrific on Saturday, holding Rodgers and the high-powered Green Bay offense to a total of 10 points - seven of which came on the Pack’s opening drive.

DE Nick Bosa was stellar coming off that concussion he suffered in Dallas, racking up a pair of sacks and a forced fumble. Both he and LB Fred Warner, doubts going into game week, were a real force in slowing Green Bay.

The San Francisco secondary could get another boost in the shape of rookie cornerback Ambry Thomas. He may be fit to return after missing the win in Green Bay because of a knee contusion he sustained in Dallas.

Robbie Gould of the San Francisco 49ers runs off the field after kicking the game-winning field goal

Los Angeles Rams: The Rams won in Tampa without one of their key offensive pieces - LT Andrew Whitworth. He missed the trip to Florida with a leg injury sustained in the Wild Card win over Arizona.

While Joseph Noteboom was surprisingly good in relief, Whitworth’s veteran leadership is valuable for the Rams and he should be fit to return this Sunday.

L.A has also been experiencing issues at the safety position, with Jordan Fuller gone for the year and Taylor Rapp out since Week 18 thanks to a concussion. Rapp though should be back against SF to bolster a unit which was forced to bring 37-year-old Eric Weddle out of a two-year retirement for the playoffs.

The Rams have more potential reinforcements on the way back to boost their options vs the Niners - with four players all designated to return from IR. They are LB Ernest Jones, RB Darrell Henderson, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day and CB Robert Rochell. Jones is likeliest to suit up.

Divisional debrief: What’s next for playoff losers?

While a quartet of teams remain in the hunt for Super Bowl LVI, four more are now back home licking their wounds after dreams were shattered for another year.

So what is the fallout like in each city? And what are the questions which come next?

Green Bay Packers: As it seems to be pretty much every day in the state of Wisconsin, it’s all about Aaron. If you looked at Twitter in the immediate aftermath of Saturday’s upset loss to the Niners, you could probably expand that to the whole of America.

Few players divide opinion like #12, and in a tumultuous 2021 he first enjoyed an offseason standoff with the Packers before later angering large sections of the United States with his views on COVID vaccination.

In the midst of all that, Rodgers was again playing at MVP level, and he may well grab that prestigious honour for the second consecutive year when results are announced on Thursday February 10.

It seemed for a few short months that winning might cure all ills for the Rodgers-Packers relationship, but the loss to San Francisco at a freezing Lambeau Field came as a big reality check.

In the immediate aftermath, Rodgers told the media: “I don’t want to be a part of a rebuild,” and the smart money right now is that Aaron gets to move on before the 2022 season begins.

Green Bay is around $37million OVER the salary cap with Rodgers set to be on the books for $44million in 2022. And the team has not yet managed to sign superstar WR Davante Adams to a contract extension.

The contract restructure which accompanied Rodgers finally returning to the fold last summer voided the 2023 season, which means 2022 would be his last in Green Bay. It took him one step closer to freedom, and still allowed for the possibility of a trade in the upcoming offseason. Watch this space.

Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers

Tennessee Titans: Tennessee’s agonising playoff defeat at home to Cincinnati may have been devastating for the fans down in Nashville, but they should still look back fondly on an incredible season.

The Titans, thanks to a terrific coaching job from Mike Vrabel, never missed a beat despite a slew of devastating injuries, notably to superstar running back Derrick Henry.

Tennessee’s identity is clear - blue-collar mentality, elite coaching, the power of Henry in the backfield and Ryan Tannehill providing a game manager at QB. Oh, and the elite receiving talents of A.J. Brown.

If you’d told us before the season that Henry would go down in Week 8, Brown would be hampered by injuries, the Julio Jones trade would not really work out AND that Tennesse would still get the #1 seed in the AFC - we’d have struggled to contain the laughter.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tom Brady came so close to pulling off another win for the ages against the visiting Rams on Sunday afternoon.

Down 27-3 and seemingly set for an embarrassing end to their Super Bowl title defence, Brady hauled the Bucs back to 27-27 with just seconds remaining. Then Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp spoiled the party once and for all.

The ageless Brady, the Benjamin Button of NFL signal callers, will turn 45 before the 2022 season begins, the final year of his current deal ($25million is some bargain btw). At this stage we don’t know for sure if Tom will be back, but he will likely have a different team around him.

Roster turnover is a staple in the era of the cap and free agency, and the Bucs have a number of key pieces all set to hit the open market in March, including:

WR Chris Godwin
DE Jason Pierre-Paul
C Ryan Jensen
DT Ndamukong Suh
TE Rob Gronkowski
DE William Gholston
RB Leonard Fournette

The loss of Godwin and Gronk would be a significant blow to a receiving corps which allowed Brady to put up terrific numbers in 2021, and challenge Rodgers for MVP honours.

There is the potential for a changing of the guard, and we now wait to see if Brady and HC Bruce Arians will be around to usher in the new pieces.

Buffalo Bills: You have to feel for Josh Allen. When he connected with Gabriel Davis for a fourth touchdown of the day with just 13 seconds remaining at Arrowhead, it looked like it was Super Bowl ahoy for the Bills. But then Patrick Mahomes, somehow, spoiled the party.

Buffalo scored 83 points against New England (W 47-17) and Kansas City (L 42-36) in playoff combat in 2021, and Allen produced QB play which was on another level. His numbers:

vs New England: 21 of 25, 308 yards, 5 TDs, 157.6 rating, 66 rushing yards
vs Kansas City: 27 of 37, 329 yards, 4 TDs, rating 136.0, 68 rushing yards

And still, despite all that, Josh is going home.

While the season may be over, and Bills Mafia may be smashing up TVs around the state of New York, the future is bright. Allen has joined messrs Mahomes, Brady and Rodgers in that elite tier of NFL quarterbacks - worth every cent of his $258million contract extension.

Throw in an excellent defense (not many teams can live with Mahomes and the Chiefs) and we expect the Bills to contend for a number of years. Their rivalry with Kansas City is already reaching special heights, and we cannot wait for the next instalment.

Quarterback Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills

Game Of The Week

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (Sunday January 30, 2330 GMT)

If the woeful NFC East deserves it’s ‘NFC Least’ tag, then the NFC West absolutely fits ‘NFC Best’. Three of its four dwellers made the post-season in 2021, and two will fight it out for the NFC Championship at SoFi Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

The 49ers come in as 3.5-point underdogs, despite the fact they have won both meetings this season, the second by 27-24 in overtime at SoFi in Week 18. And don’t fall for that nonsense about it being impossible to beat the same team three times in a season (teams in this position have a convincing winning record since the league merger in 1970).

Make no mistake, Kyle Shanahan will be confident of outpointing Sean McVay yet again with his futuristic offensive scheme and unique playmakers - led by Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.

For the Rams meanwhile these are the highest possible stakes - L.A. has built a star-studded roster via high-profile trades in the ultimate ‘win now’ strategy. Matthew Stafford was acquired for just this moment and a Super Bowl is expected.

Los Angeles stands in a unique position now, two wins will make it a Super Bowl champion, and they will both be played at home. After the Bucs became the first team to play in a home Super Bowl in early 2021, we stand on the brink of a second within a year.

This should be a fascinating battle of wits on the sideline with Shanahan and McVay, once colleagues as assistants in Washington, battling for supremacy.

The galaxy of stars on show will be dazzling, but the final reckoning might come down to a man who is universally seen as a game manager and an obedient soldier, not an elite talent. Step forward Jimmy Garoppolo.

Jimmy G has already fought off the challenge of rookie Trey Lance to remain the starter this season, now he bids to move one step closer to atoning for Super Bowl defeat by the Chiefs in early 2019. At some stage he will need to make big plays on Sunday, or will it be big mistakes?