NFL betting tips: Week 3 best bets including San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
Ross Williams previews Sunday's Week 3 NFL slate, with Dallas Cowboys fancied to inflict another defeat upon Baltimore Ravens.
NFL betting tips: Week 3
1pt Alvin Kamara (Saints) & Saquon Barkley (Eagles) both to score a touchdown at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Stefon Diggs (Texans) to score a touchdown at 15/8 (General)
2pts San Francisco 49ers over 2.5 sacks at 4/5 (bet365)
2pts Dallas Cowboys to beat the Baltimore Ravens at 20/21 (bet365)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
- Sunday, 1800 BST - live on Sky Sports NFL
The New Orleans Saints have been the surprise package of the opening two weeks and, frankly, they’ve been a joy to watch.
No major additions in the offseason, no drastic changes anyone was highlighting prior to week one. The Saints are just executing at a far higher level than anyone anticipated.
What should have been expected is the explosive capabilities of ALVIN KAMARA – because we’ve been witnessing it ever since he entered the league in 2017.
In the past three seasons, the former University of Tennessee running back hadn’t been as prominent in the scoring charts since his remarkable 21-touchdown 2020 campaign, but on Sunday he looked to be right back at the very peak of his powers.
Faced with a Dallas defence famed for their sturdiness, Kamara went ballistic.
He ended the game with 22 touches, 180 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns. It was an incredible display and one he’ll be keen to replicate this week against a defensive unit that looks more than susceptible.
The Eagles have shipped 315 rushing yards through two games.
It’s not a great number but, at first glance, it isn’t catastrophic. The Colts, for example, are on pace to be historically bad as they have given up a massive 474 yards.
Philadelphia’s problem isn’t immediately obvious, but it smacks you in the face when you look deeper into the numbers.
The Eagles have only faced 49 rushing attempts so far this season, which means they’re actually giving up an enormous 6.4 yards per carry.
The Cowboys’ defence – who were absolutely slashed by Kamara last week – still only average 4.9 yards per carry. The aforementioned Colts, who have grabbed all the headlines after a torrid start, average 5.1.
Generally speaking, the worst rush-defence in the NFL every year tend to average a loss of five yards per carry over the season.
Shipping 6.4 yards each time the opposition hands the ball off is an eye-catchingly bad stat (comfortably the worst mark in the league) and it’s one that the Saints won’t – and shouldn’t – ignore, so I love Kamara’s chances of scoring once again.
Naturally after last week’s display, his touchdown price has been hit pretty heavily so the value in the single is considerably reduced. But I think we can remedy this.
There is merit to adding SAQUON BARKLEY into the equation here, based on his usage in the opening two weeks.
It was unknown how the former Giant would fare crossing the NFC East, but the talented running back has been an enormous part of Philadelphia’s plans in the early going.
He’s touched the ball 52 times so far, more than any non-quarterback in the league, and scored three touchdowns in his two initial outings as an Eagle.
The risk with picking running backs to score in Nick Sirianni’s system is often the presence of Jalen Hurts in the backfield, but Philly haven’t shied away from giving Barkley red zone carries.
His 13 attempts inside the 20-yard line is three more than any other player in the NFL and – even inside the ten-yard strip – Barkley has carried twice as much as Hurts thus far.
Having only faced the dire Panthers and the misfiring Cowboys, who immediately had to go to an aerial approach to keep the pace, New Orleans haven’t been tested against a decent rushing attack to this point and that gives me faith Philadelphia will have some joy.
Doubling up Kamara and Barkley could be a really nice start to our Sunday.
Houston Texas @ Minnesota Vikings
- Sunday, 1800 BST
STEFON DIGGS returns to Minnesota this weekend, the city in which he made his name after being drafted in the fifth round by the Vikings in 2015.
Nowadays, Diggs is second-fiddle to Nico Collins in Houston’s receiver room, but I’m backing him to score a touchdown on his old patch this Sunday.
Collins is the shorter price as he leads the Texans in many of the major receiving categories, having racked up over 250 yards already this season from 14 receptions.
Diggs’ tally of 70 yards from 10 catches looks measly in comparison, but it provides a real sense of the situations in which C.J. Stroud is looking to his veteran option.
Collins may be the more explosive option over the middle of the field in 2024, but Diggs has accumulated over 10,000 receiving yards in the NFL over an illustrious career and he’s caught almost 70% of the 1,190 targets that have come his way.
In other words, he’s one of the more dependable receivers we’ve seen over the last decade, so there’s little wonder why Stroud is using him in high-pressure, shorter-yardage situations where Houston simply have to get over the line.
In particular, Diggs has been active in the red zone and that’s what makes his price to score a touchdown so tempting.
Three red zone targets through two games may not seem a lot, but Collins doesn’t even have one.
It’s also worth considering that no one in the NFL has caught more than four passes inside the 20-yard line to this point and Diggs has a 100% catch percentage in these scenarios, amounting to 11 yards and two touchdowns.
For context, only three other receivers have caught two touchdown passes in the redzone so far this season.
When push comes to shove and Stroud needs to cap off a drive, it’s Diggs he’s looking to and that should continue to be a trend moving forward.
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
- Sunday, 2125 BST
There’s a long evening ahead for Matthew Stafford.
The Rams’ quarterback was sacked five times as the Cardinals ran through his team on Sunday and all the evidence points to an equally bruising night for the 36-year-old.
At the time of writing, Los Angeles have four offensive linemen confirmed to be out of this game and right guard Kevin Dotson has also spent time on the injury report this past week. The Rams are banged up in the trenches and even if the players they have at their disposal can provide Stafford a little time in the pocket on Sunday, his options down the field are scarce and will leave him vulnerable.
Both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will miss out, meaning Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson and Tutu Atwell will lead Los Angeles’ receiver unit against the Niners.
That trio have combined for 17 catches so far this season. Kupp has 18 by himself.
It’s the perfect bounce-back game for a 49ers team that disappointed in week two and there’s definitely value in taking San Francisco against the spread, while the number is dipped below seven points.
However, I’m more keen on the sacks market due to the line available.
The 49ers are 4/5 to record THREE SACKS against the depleted Rams and the maths works. Los Angeles have conceded seven sacks across two games at an average of 3.5. Had last week’s game been less of a blow-out, I suspect the Cardinals would have added to that total too, but they were able to put the cue on the rack in the second half.
The Niners have sacked the quarterback five times so far, but against better-equipped offensive lines in the New York Jets and Minnesota.
The one caveat that should be considered is the status of Nick Bosa, who hit the injury report himself earlier in the week, but there has been no indication at the time of writing that the star defensive end won’t play. The line is unlikely to move, so this is a rare example where it may pay to sit tight until his status is confirmed.
Regardless, San Francisco have plenty of firepower outside Bosa. Kevin Givens, Fred Warner and Leonard Floyd all have sacks to their name already this year and they should each find opportunities against a beaten-up unit that crumbled against Arizona a week ago.
Stafford has taken the third-most sacks among active quarterbacks in the league with 481 and I think he’ll be a touch closer to 500 after the Niners have had their way with him, angry after a week two defeat.
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
- Sunday, 2125 BST - live on Sky Sports NFL
The idea of the reigning MVP and his Baltimore Ravens starting the season 0-3 sounds absurd, but it’s a very real possibility.
Lamar Jackson’s team find themselves winless through the opening fortnight following an understandable defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs and a far less understandable capitulation against the Las Vegas Raiders.
It’s been a torrid couple of weeks and they’re now staring down the barrel of their worst start in nine years. What followed in 2015 was the Ravens’ worst campaign since their inaugural season in 1996, so it goes without saying that the franchise will be keen to avoid history repeating itself.
But I think it will.
The DALLAS COWBOYS are coming off a humbling defeat of their own, but they retain home advantage this week and I think they’re value as an underdog.
No one has been able to run the ball effectively – or often – against Baltimore as of yet, but the Ravens’ pass defence has been taken apart.
They’ve shipped 257 passing yards per game so far, the highest mark in the league, and quarterbacks have completed over 75% of their passes against them. Yes, one of them was Patrick Mahomes and that should be noted accordingly, but the other was Gardner Minshew, a player who has struggled to even tie down a starting role during his NFL career.
Dak Prescott falls somewhere between those two players, though his arm talent probably lands him closer to Mahomes on the spectrum.
Despite a poor team performance, Prescott still found some success with Ceedee Lamb last week, as he picked up 90 yards and a touchdown from just four receptions.
In the past two weeks, the Ravens have given up 100-yard games and a ton of receptions (16) to the #1 receivers of the Chiefs and Raiders respectively, so a big day for Lamb can be anticipated.
The Cowboys are 16-6 all-time in games where Ceedee Lamb has picked up 90+ receiving yards and besides last week, the other five defeats were all on the road.
The great Ravens of the past have all been built on solid defensive foundations and I simply can’t get behind a Baltimore side that is failing to execute its core principles. It’s very unlike Harbaugh’s team and perhaps points to deeper-rooted problems.
Home underdogs are always fascinating and particularly those that can win an obvious match-up against their opposition.
The Cowboys have still won 37 of their last 53 regular season games and, since 2018, they’re 7-1 against the spread as underdogs at AT&T Stadium.
With the spread under two points at present, this is a money line pick for me.
Posted at 1720 BST on 20/09/24
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