Ross Williams previews the Week 14 NFL action, with selections at a range of prices for the games being broadcast live on Sky Sports.
NFL betting tips: Week 14
2pts Kirk Cousins (Vikings) 2+ interceptions at 3/1 (bet365)
1pt Minnesota Defence/ST to score a touchdown at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
2pts Bills @ Rams over 49.5 total match points at 10/11 (General)
Atalanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
- Sunday 1800 GMT - live on Sky Sports
The winds have been howling in the UK over the past couple of days and there’s a perfect storm also heading the way of KIRK COUSINS on Sunday, albeit in the sheltered surroundings of U.S. Bank Stadium.
Now at the helm of the Atlanta Falcons, Cousins is making his first return to Minneapolis and, frankly, the timing couldn’t be worse.
He’s suffered an abject run of three games that have resulted in consecutive defeats for his Falcons team and his personal numbers have been dire. Cousins has failed to throw a single touchdown pass during the three-game stretch and far too often, his passing has opened the door for the opposition.
The Atlanta quarterback has been picked off six times during this spell, with four interceptions coming last time out against the Chargers.
On three occasions this season, Cousins has been intercepted at least twice and that’s the area in which I’m focusing this week. With the 36-year-old at such a low ebb, the 3/1 on offer for Cousins throw at least two picks this week is decent value and worth a stab.
Failing to handle pressure has been an unfortunate hallmark of Cousins’ career and he’ll certainly be feeling it on Sunday. Facing his former team, on their home patch, is a considerable factor and that’s before we even dig into the quality of the defence he’ll be facing.
The Vikings have recorded 18 interceptions in 12 NFL games this season – that’s two more than any other team. Minnesota have also returned two of those interceptions for touchdowns, a mark only bettered by Denver.
It could be a long afternoon for Kirk and we can capitalise by getting behind one of the league’s leading scoring defences.
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
- Sunday 2125 GMT - live on Sky Sports
In the late window’s featured game, we’re going with a pure numbers play.
The TOTAL MATCH POINTS line has been set at 49.5 and I think that’s just low enough for us to favour the ‘over’.
The Rams are heading into this one off a win – and they have home-field advantage – whereas the Bills remain one of the form teams in the NFL, riding an impressive seven-game winning streak that stretches back to mid-October.
But let’s look at the maths.
Buffalo have the second-highest scoring offence in football right now – averaging 29.6 points per game – while the Rams are putting up 21.2 points per outing. The Los Angeles figure isn’t all that inspiring, it must be said, but a combination of the two averages works out at 50.8, which of course would be enough to land the selection.
It’s also worth considering that although there’s an 8.4-point differential between the averages of the two teams, the handicap line is actually only 3.5 points, so the bookmakers are expecting LA to keep this tighter than some of the core numbers suggest. Seeing as Los Angeles don’t have a particularly impressive defensive record, we can assume that the faith is in Los Angeles’ offence to outperform their usual, and that helps our cause.
It makes sense too. Rams quarterback Matt Stafford has been back to his brilliant best of late, racking up eight passing touchdowns over a three-game stretch, without conceding an interception.
Kyren Williams remains one of the most consistent running backs in the NFL and the receiver tandem of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are a threat to anyone in the league when Stafford’s on song.
Buffalo are electric and Josh Allen is compiling a strong MVP case, but I don’t suspect Sunday’s encounter will be a stroll in the park. The Rams won’t go away, and 50 points is a number these two teams can certainly reach between them.
Posted at 1640 GMT on 07/12/24
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