Ross Williams previews the Week 12 action in the NFL, including Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts and San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers.
NFL betting tips: Week 12
2pts Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) to beat the Chicago Bears at 10/11 (General)
2pts Anthony Richardson (Colts) to score a touchdown at 7/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Jauan Jennings (49ers) over 52.5 receiving yards at 11/10 (General)
1pt Anthony Richardson & David Montgomery to both score a touchdown at 3/1 (bet365)
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
- Sunday 1800 GMT
After a two-game midseason dip, the VIKINGS are back on a winning run and I fully expect them to extend the streak to four this weekend.
Minnesota’s assignment is an NFC North clash with the Chicago Bears, a team that look set to wind down the 2024 season with a whimper, despite some promising early signs.
Chicago have conceded their last four and there’s a sense of inevitability around the team’s downfall. There’s a definite argument that they were unfortunate in defeat to Green Bay last week, but seven days before that, they were humbled by a three-win Patriots team that have been among the worst in the NFL.
The handicap line is currently set at just 3.5 points and this has me leaning heavily towards a Vikings cover.
Minnesota have actually won and covered in their last four visits to Solder Field – so recent history isn’t an issue – and, quite frankly, they’re just the better team right now.
They score, on average, five points per game more than Sunday’s opponents and their defence is fourth-best in the NFL in terms of points allowed (17). Chicago’s defence is also pretty stingy to their credit, as they only allow 18.7 points themselves, but that figure is still on the wrong side of Minnesota’s total.
Numerically, a Vikings win by 4+ points makes a lot of sense and with Brian Flores’ defence standing between rookie Caleb Williams and Chicago success, I’ll go with Flores.
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
- Sunday 1800 GMT
Understandably, the Lions are fully expected to continue their hot streak on Sunday as they take on the Indianapolis Colts. The Michigan-based Super Bowl contenders are the form team in the NFL right now and it’s difficult to imagine anyone slowing them down at present, at least while they’re healthy and maintaining their level of performance.
However, I do think the Colts could have some success in this match-up. They’ll concede points, and probably too many for them to truly threaten Detroit’s win streak, but Indy have had a knack of staying around in their games this season.
Shane Steichen’s team have suffered six defeats, but they are yet to be blown out. Their heaviest loss – a fortnight ago at home to Buffalo – was by ten points and their average margin of defeat excluding that game is just over four points.
The Colts stick around, and with that in mind it’s worth looking at the touchdown markets.
The performance of the Indianapolis offence is in direct correlation to the play of young quarterback ANTHONY RICHARDSON – and he’s a week removed from his best display for the horseshoe.
Having been benched for Joe Flacco previously, Richardson re-emerged against the Jets and led the Colts to victory with a fantastic fourth-quarter drive. Notably, it was Richardson himself who capped off the win with a rushing touchdown, his second of the game.
He’s 13/8 to find the endzone again on Sunday and, at that price, it’s worth a swing. Both of his touchdowns last week came on near-identical plays and the Colts would be foolish to not attempt it again when faced with the Lions.
Due to injury concerns, there were fears that Richardson wouldn’t back himself – or even be backed by his play-callers – in these sorts of situations going forward, but it was far from the case last week. There was no stopping the towering Colts quarterback as he got into stride and lowered his pad height.
He’s good value to score for the Colts in this one, and I’d also consider doubling him up with DAVID MONTGOMERY. The Lions’ back has been in terrific form of late and he also picked up two touchdowns last time out, adding to a tally that has now hit double figures.
The Colts have allowed ten rushing touchdowns through eleven games and – with the mood Detroit are in – it would be pretty remarkable if Montgomery didn’t at least get one golden opportunity to reach the endzone.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
- Sunday 2125 GMT
JAUAN JENNINGS' receiving line is set at a touch over 50 yards this week and that appears to represent value.
The 49ers are in a tough spot at the moment, nursing a shaky 5-5 record, and they need to bounce back quickly.
In order to do so, they need to cut out the mistakes and focus on the things they’ve been doing well, even during the recent dry spell. Chief among the list of positives has been the involvement of Jennings.
The receiver caught the eye back in September when he went nuclear on the Los Angeles Rams, picking up 175 yards and three touchdowns, but that wasn’t a flash in the pan.
The Niners’ wideout has steadily upped his involvement and there’s no doubt that he has a good rapport with his quarterback Brock Purdy. In the last two weeks, Jennings has twice seen eleven targets – more than any of his San Francisco teammates – and he’s turned those opportunities into a pair of 90+ yard games. He also snagged a touchdown last week, which is only likely to maintain the trust San Fran’s playcallers have in him.
Even outside of the last fortnight and his monster game against LA, Jennings has gone over 53 yards twice more. The Jets (64 yards) suffered at his hands on opening weekend, as did the Patriots a few weeks later, to the tune of 88 yards.
Against a middling Packers pass-defence that allows an average completion rate of 65.8% and just over 200 receiving yards per game, the over on Jennings looks like great value this week.
Posted at 2045 GMT on 22/11/24
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.