Sporting Life
NFL Week 4 cheat sheet

NFL betting tips: Week 11 touchdown scorers, prop and stats bets

By Matt Temple-Marsh
NFL
Sat November 26, 2022 · 2y ago

Matt Temple-Marsh is +23.71pts in profit over the past four weeks, an ROI of 99%, and he has five best bets for Week 11.

NFL betting tips: Week 11

5pts Parris Campbell over 36.5 receiving yards in Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts at 5/6 (Sky Bet)

2pts Justin Fields anytime touchdown in Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons at 7/5 (bet365)

2pts Parris Campbell anytime touchdown in Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts at 5/1 (bet365)

2pts Allen Robinson over 48.5 receiving yards in Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints at 5/6 (Sky Bet, bet365)

0.5pts Parris Campbell to score a brace in Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts at 75/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

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Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts

With Matt Ryan back under centre, I love Parris Campbell.

Under Ryan’s last three starts, Campbell has a touchdown in every game, alongside 203 receiving yards & a 25% target share – averaging over ten targets per game.

The Eagles matchup is at face value worrisome (fourth best secondary in the league) – but they have allowed the 12th most yards to slot WRs in the NFL.

Campbell plays 79% of his snaps from the slot, and we can likely expect a negative game script with the Eagles looking to bounce back after their shock defeat to the Commanders.

Darius Slay & James Bradberry will look to remove Michael Pittman from the game & Eagles starting slot corner Avonte Maddox landed on IR just this week – this is a great matchup for Campbell.

He’s averaged over 67 yards per game through this stretch, making his 36.5 receiving line look like light work. Plus, the touchdown price is very generous, other bookmakers have this down at around 5/2 – which also makes the 75/1 brace tempting.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Justin Fields is becoming a superstar.

Over the past four weeks Fields has the seriously talent poor Chicago Bears offence averaging over 30 points per game – and has placed himself into the conversation as best rushing QB in the league alongside Lamar Jackson.

He has 325 rushing yards in his last two games – the most ever by a quarterback – and 467 in his last four games total.

He has five touchdowns in this span, and I’m predicting another against Atlanta.

The Falcons are conceding 25 points per game, the sixth most in the league – and Bears matches have seen a bounty of points as of late.

They are also allowing 119 rushing yards per game, and are conceding more passing yards per game than any other team in the league, by some stretch.

This may sound confusing when I’m tipping fields to score a rushing touchdown, but this means Fields will be offered more passing opportunities – and ultimately more scramble attempts as he drops back to pass, which is where he thrives – finding holes in the open field.

He’s had nine red zone carries over the last four games, with five of them coming with just goal to go.

Back Fields to find the end zone once more.

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints

Cooper Kupp is on IR with an ankle injury – leaving a gaping hole in the Rams’ offence – Kupp has seen 98 targets this year with a 30.2% target share – and this is now up for grabs.

May we finally see the Allen Robinson that was raved about all pre-season?

Robinson has been slowly getting more involved with this offence – his target share over the last three weeks has increased from 14.5% to 18.6%. There’s no doubt he’s by far the most talented WR now for the Rams – with Ben Skowronek & Van Jefferson as his competition.

Matthew Stafford has cleared concussion protocol and will be playing against the Saints – who have allowed the tenth most yards to WRs this season (154.3 yards/game).

Over Robinson’s last four games he’s racked up 185 receiving yards (46.25 yards/game). With nearly 11 targets up for grabs in Kupp’s absence, Robinson looks a good bet to step up & clear his yardage line.

Odds correct at 1540 GMT on 18/11/22

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