NFL betting tips: Week 11 best bets including Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
Ross Williams has been in terrific form all season and he has a range of selections for Week 11 in the NFL, with two star quarterbacks featuring.
NFL betting tips: Week 11
2pts Ravens @ Steelers - over 48.5 total match points at 10/11 (General)
2pts Justin Jefferson (Vikings) to score a touchdown at evens (General)
1pt Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) & Josh Allen (Bills) both to throw an interception at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Sunday, 1800 GMT - live on Sky Sports
Bookmakers make 49 the magic number of points required to land the ‘over’ in Pittsburgh, and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest we can expect a heap of points as two AFC North giants do battle.
The Ravens and Steelers always attract attention when they cross swords, but especially when they’re both at the peak of their powers. With a combined record of 14-5 heading into week 11, both teams are on course for postseason football and Sunday’s match-up could even be a dress rehearsal for the AFC playoffs.
High-scoring contests have been a feature for Baltimore in particular this season and history points to more of the same this weekend. Eight of their 10 games have seen 49 points or more and even in week four – the last time a Ravens game failed to clear 49 points – Baltimore upheld their end of the bargain by scoring 35 against an unusually flat Buffalo Bills.
With an average of 31.8 per game, the Ravens are the highest-scoring team in football and there’s no obvious reason why they should fall away now.
Lamar Jackson, the reigning NFL MVP, is the current favourite to retain the game’s highest individual honour and it would take an almighty drop-off to take him out of the race now. Through 10 games, Jackson has thrown 24 passing touchdowns – already matching his 2023 seasonal mark – and just two interceptions. He’s also picked up two rushing touchdowns, despite the dominance of Derrick Henry in Baltimore’s ground attack.
Three all-purpose touchdowns this weekend would see Jackson match his 2023 total with six games to spare.
On a side note, if you’re in the market for a midseason futures bet, the 11/10 on offer for Jackson to become a back-to-back MVP seems almost too good to be true. Only a Jackson injury could realistically derail his chances from here, unless Kansas City complete an undefeated season and the narrative around Mahomes is just too potent for the voters to ignore, despite his middling individual performances.
Back to it. Baltimore’s scoring shouldn’t be a worry on Sunday, but what about Pittsburgh?
Well, their offence matches up really, really well.
Over the past three weeks, with Russell Wilson at the helm, the Steelers have averaged over 30 points per game and their passing attack has turned a corner. They’ve bested their seasonal average of 188 passing yards in each of the three victories and George Pickens has been unlocked, averaging 92 receiving yards in this recent spell.
The importance of this lies in Baltimore’s vulnerability. The Ravens’ pass defence is the worst in the NFL right now and a genuine Achilles’ heel in terms of their title hopes. They’re allowing 294.9 passing yards per game, a full 30 yards more than any other team.
It’s a real problem for Baltimore and it’s certainly something that Wilson and his upbeat offence will be looking to exploit.
This divisional clash has all the shootout potential to live up to its billing, and it would take something of an anomaly for the ‘over’ to not be in play.
CLICK HERE to back over 48.5pts with Sky Bet
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans
- Sunday, 1800 GMT
It’s been two years since JUSTIN JEFFERSON went four games without a touchdown. The star Vikings receiver – arguably the league’s finest – doesn’t take kindly to stints without an endzone visit and I suspect he’ll be back in the scoring column this weekend, having blanked in his previous three outings.
Indeed, his last score came against Detroit in mid-October, but his recent drought hasn’t been through a lack of trying. He’s been targeted nine times in each of the three games since and has secured impressive production despite the lack of touchdowns. He has had two 100+ yard games in this recent period.
Minnesota take on the Titans this weekend, their third-straight AFC South opponent, and Jefferson should get his opportunities.
Interestingly, the 2-7 Titans actually allow the fewest receiving yards per game in the league, but the statistic certainly doesn’t paint the whole picture and shouldn’t scare us away from taking on their defence. It’s a bit of a phantom stat, to tell the truth.
Despite technically having the second-best defensive unit in the league in terms of total yards allowed, only three teams concede more points per game than Tennessee.
In short, teams don’t rack up the yards on the Titans because they simply don’t have to.
More often than not, Tennessee’s opponents receive the ball in good field position and quickly find themselves in scoring territory, due to the inefficiency of the Titans’ offence. Tennessee might allow the fewest receiving yards, but they’ve allowed 13 receiving touchdowns. The second-best defence in terms of receiving yards allowed, the Jets, have allowed just seven.
Just a few weeks ago, Detroit blew the doors off in their clash with the Titans, connecting with four separate receivers for touchdowns. Sam Darnold’s Minnesota offence haven’t been quite at Detroit’s level over the last few weeks, but they’ve shown more than enough flashes over the course of the season to prove they’re capable of causing substantial damage.
The Titans are sure to give Jefferson opportunities to find the endzone on Sunday and – after a three-week drought – his price to score a touchdown is too good to turn down.
CLICK HERE to back Jefferson to score a TD with Sky Bet
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
- Sunday, 2125 GMT - live on Sky Sports
It feels almost absurd to say, with the Chiefs undefeated and his MVP odds still at a very reasonable 13/2, but PATRICK MAHOMES is having a down year.
By his own lofty standards, 12 passing touchdowns through nine games feels sub-par (he’s on pace for his lowest NFL season total) and the fact he’s thrown nine interceptions already this year is a little puzzling. At this rate, he’ll finish up the season with 17 picks, three more than his worst previous return.
Does it matter? Perhaps not. The Chiefs remain 9-0, they’re the only unbeaten team in the NFL and the price for them to retain the Vince Lombardi in February has only shortened, which is good news for those who followed my pre-season outright selections.
However, there’s money to be made if we capitalise on this bizarre period of Mahomes form. As mentioned, the Chiefs’ QB is averaging an interception per game at the moment and the Bills look primed to maintain that run.
Buffalo have picked off quarterbacks 11 times already this season – fifth-most in the NFL - and everything points to this huge AFC match-up requiring some risky throws from Mahomes.
In a rarity, the Chiefs are underdogs as they head to Western New York and there’s every chance that Kansas City will have to chase this game at times, against a side that have won five straight in stylish fashion.
A Mahomes interception makes plenty of sense but value is scarce, so I’m willing to double it up with his quarterback counterpart.
JOSH ALLEN is a superstar in his own right and he’s been far more effective at keeping possession this season. The Buffalo signal-caller has thrown just four interceptions so far but – and here’s the kicker – all four have been thrown in the past three weeks.
Both the Seahawks and Dolphins managed to take the ball away from Allen, and Indianapolis caused him all kinds of problems last weekend, picking him off twice and restricting his completion percentage to under 60%.
Allen is working with an inexperienced group of receivers in Buffalo and as talented as the likes of Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir are, there’s a whole different feel to a game against the Chiefs. It’ll be a pressure cooker on Sunday, and that causes mistakes even at the highest level. Steve Spagnuolo’s defence is well aware of this, and I fancy them to capitalise and take the ball away from the Bills at least once.
Buffalo and Kansas City have played out some absolute blockbusters in the Mahomes-Allen era and here’s to hoping that Sunday’s edition follows suit, albeit with one or two quarterback mishaps.
Posted at 1425 GMT on 16/11/24
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