NFL betting tips: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns preview, predictions and best bets
Matt Temple-Marsh is backing Pittsburgh Steelers to put on a show when they host Cleveland Browns on Thursday night.
NFL betting tips: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
3pts Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at 11/10 (bet365)
2pts Over 36.5 match points at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Steelers -3.5 @ 10/11
- Total: Over 36.5 @ 5/6
Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off with the Pittsburgh Steelers travelling to Cleveland to face the Browns.
The Steelers are the surprise story of the season – they’re on fire. Mike Tomlin’s team sit atop of the AFC North with an 8-2 record, having won 5 in a row, and they boast an impressive 4-1 record on the road.
They face the Browns who are 2-8, dead last in division. They’ve lost their last two games and are just 1-4 at home. It’s a lost season for Cleveland, with Deshaun Watson’s poor performance and ensuing injury derailing their project.
The Browns rank dead last in offensive net yards per play (-1.4), and while they’ve improved with Jameis Winston under centre, it’s only marginal. Their offence now ranks 22nd in both EPA (expected points added) per play and success rate.
And as a result, their defence is crumbling too. The once vaunted Cleveland defence now sits at 20th for EPA allowed per play, and 27th in opponent yards per play. Just last week we saw Taysom Hill run wild against the Browns – something that has seldom happened in the NFL.
For the Steelers, you can argue that they’re the best coached team in the league – with the best defence. Only the Chargers are conceding fewer points per game than the Steelers (16.2) – and in back-to-back weeks they’ve nullified Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson.
It was a shock to see the Steelers bench Justin Fields, but Russell Wilson has surpassed expectations for the Steelers. He’s thrown for 6 TDs and just 2 interceptions, with an impressive 94.4 passer rating.
We’re never going to see Wilson at his peak from his Seahawks days, but this current version is more than enough for Pittsburgh, and a major improvement on his time with Denver. Plus, in three career games against the Browns, Wilson has thrown for 6 TDs, no picks and boasts a 114.7 passer rating, with three wins.
The Steelers are 8-2 against the spread this season, whilst the Browns come in at 3-7. The 3.5 line seems very light when diving into the metrics. The Browns offence is an embarrassment right now – and they couldn’t have wished for a harder opponent than the Steelers, especially coming off a short week.
The last time they were 3.5 favourites was against the Raiders five weeks ago – they stormed to a 32-13 win. And for what it’s worth – the overs has been profitable for the Steelers as of late, hitting in four of their last five games.
Posted at 0955 GMT on 20/11/24
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