AFC North offseason update and odds: The last stand for ‘Big Ben’?
Can reigning division champions Pittsburg Steelers triumph again? OddsCritic analyses the AFC North.
Pro football, like betting on sports, is very much a ‘what have you done for me lately’ business. The AFC North market this offseason is the poster boy for that.
Who else could explain the reigning division champion Pittsburgh going into the 2021 season as third favourite to retain its title. Way, way bigger than its main rivals.
Recency bias is alive and well in NFL betting circles, and online bookmakers are absolutely taking it heavily into account here for a Steelers team which started 11-0 in 2020 before stumbling into and then out of the playoffs.
Baltimore and Cleveland on the other hand come into 2021 with high hopes. Both have exciting young quarterbacks (as opposed to the creaking 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger) and talent-laden rosters.
Even Cincinnati goes into 2021 with the needle arguably pointing north - assuming young QB Joe Burrow recovers adequately from that horrific knee injury which wrecked his rookie season.
Pittsburgh has one of THE best head coaches in the league in Mike Tomlin, and a winning culture built up over a long long time. But how long can he keep squeezing every drop out of what he has?
The rivalries in the North are brutal, and the games play out accordingly - historically it’s one of the best division races of all. 2021 should be no different.
AFC North in 2020: Steelers stumble over the line
Like we said, if you’d written this segment at the start of December, it would read very differently.
Tomlin and the Steelers were heading towards the post-season at 11-0 and looking strong on the back of the best start in franchise history.
From then on the wheels started to come off though - the season ended with five losses in six games, the final two at the hands of bitter rivals Cleveland. The second of those - a 48-37 shocker in the first round of the playoffs, ended their year in disappointing fashion.
For Baltimore and Cleveland, things looked much more promising. The Ravens were struggling at 6-5 before finishing with five straight wins to clinch a wild-card berth. They would knock off Tennessee in the post-season before eventually falling to Buffalo.
The Browns meanwhile finally started to really maximise the value of all that talent which has been assembled in recent years. A balanced offense paid rich dividends with the league’s third best rushing attack taking some of the pressure away from the fast maturing Baker Mayfield at QB.
Those two wins over Pittsburgh hinted at a power shift in the AFC North, and the Browns were far from disgraced in their eventual playoff exit - 22-17 at the hands of Kansas City.
Yet another new era started meanwhile in the moribund modern-day NFL wasteland which is Cincinnati. The Bengals used the first pick in the 2020 draft to select LSU’s Heisman-winning quarterback Burrow. Despite the lack of a stellar supporting cast, he showed moments of real promise before that knee injury in a Week 11 loss to Washington ended his year early.
Final Standings
1. 12-4 Pittsburgh Steelers
2. 11-5 Baltimore Ravens
3. 11-5 Cleveland Browns
4. 4-11-1 Cincinnati Bengals
If you looked at those standings without knowing the back story, the odds you are about to look at would not make a lot of sense. Things change fast in the NFL.
The aforementioned Roethlisberger is now very much in the twilight of his NFL career - we don’t expect to see him still winging it around in his mid-40s like Tom Brady.
‘Big Ben’ has taken some fearful punishment down the years, as well as leading the Steelers to almost perennial Super Bowl contention.
Having a great head coach and a great starting QB can set a franchise up for a long time, and Roethlisberger and Tomlin have been the constants for an era of non-stop winning.
It feels like 2021 could be the last stand for this era in Pittsburgh though. Ben took a pay cut and a one-year deal to come back - that is the move of a man who is all about one last dance and not a bank balance.
The Steelers will somehow need to protect Roethlisberger from further punishment, and that isn’t made easier by the recent turnover on the offensive line.
Center Maurkice Pouncey retired, Matt Feiler and Alejandro Villanueva both bolted in free agency and the team recently released multiple Pro Bowler David DeCastro. A lot for any team to overcome.
Pittsburgh used its first pick in the draft to snag Alabama running back Najee Harris, but while he is an exciting talent, who is he going to be running behind? The early signs are not good for a ground game that really struggled in 2020.
The Steelers did pick up three linemen in free agency, but none were banner signings. And it was Rounds 3 and 4 of the draft before it addressed a glaring need - taking Illinois center Kendrick Green and Texas A & M tackle Dan Moore Jr.
The Steelers also used their first pick after Harris to give Ben another safety blanket in the shape of Penn State tight end Pat Freiermuth. He should bring dual value, both as a blocker and a pass catcher.
On an entirely positive note, Roethlisberger does have plenty of weapons on the outside, in the shape of talented WR trio Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Pittsburgh also has blue-chip pieces still on the defensive side of the ball - notably sensationally talented LB T.J. Watt (15 sacks in 2020). It did though lose his partner in crime Bud Dupree to Tennessee in a big-money deal in free agency.
Most of the resources spent in free agency and the draft were spent on offense to give Ben weapons and shore up that glaring weakness on the line. A defense which was third in the NFL in 2020 should be good again, with a very similar cast bar the departed Dupree.
Summary: We expect Tomlin to perform miracles again and Pittsburgh to have yet another winning season. But clearly they are all in on giving Ben one final shot at a ring. Are they good enough to do that?
While Roethlisberger has been pretty durable in a long NFL career, he is definitely creaking now. And the difference between him playing and playing hurt is significant.
We are not particularly comfortable with having Mason Rudoph as his backup, and the Steelers are one hit away from a winter of discontent.
Plenty has to fall right for Pitttsburgh to repeat in the North. If you believe that awful end to 2020 was a blip though, then the 9/2 now available is terrific value.
Just like the Steelers, the Ravens very much enjoyed a 2020 made up of two starkly different chapters. A 6-5 start was followed by six straight wins including success in the post-season.
The early part of the year saw Baltimore deal close up with the realities of COVID - with superstar QB Lamar Jackson going down with the virus.
Jackson was not at the incredible MVP level he reached in 2019 - maybe that was impossible to recreate anyway - but he looked much more like his old self in that strong finish to the season.
Lamar has proved he can win a playoff game, now surely the next step is to prove he can reach a Super Bowl? That has to be the aim for the Ravens in 2021.
Extending their QB1 will be priority #1 for Baltimore in the coming months, and surrounding him with the weapons he needs to succeed.
The offensive line has undergone something of an overhaul. Orlando Brown Jr was traded to Kansas City while fellow tackle D.J. Fluker and center Matt Skura headed for Miami in free agency.
To counter those losses, the Ravens picked up former Steeler Villanueva and former Giants guard Kevin Zeitler, as well as drafting Georgia guard Ben Cleveland in the third round.
Baltimore also added receiving weapons to its arsenal in the draft, taking Minnesota wideout Rashod Bateman at 27 overall, while Oklahoma State’s Tylan Wallace was an intriguing pick in Round 4.
Baltimore was excellent again defensively in 2020 (yet again allowing less than 20 points per game), but it did lose a couple of key pieces in the offseason. LB Matthew Judon signed a big-money deal to move to New England while DE Yannick Ngakoue bolted to Las Vegas.
The Ravens have a really good secondary, anchored by corners Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, but will they be able to produce enough pressure up front? The addition of Penn State standout Odafe Oweh with a second first-round pick should help shore things up.
It would still be no surprise to see Baltimore move to add a further veteran into the mix to beef up the pass rush potential before the season gets under way in September.
Summary: There is every reason to believe Baltimore will be really good again in 2021, more like the team which finished 2020 and not the one which had a nasty 1-4 skid in the middle of the year.
Jackson should be at his best as the ultimate dual threat, and if the offense is even middle of the pack the Ravens will contend.
On the defensive side of the ball the pass rush is the concern, and the jury remains out on whether the team has enough in that area just yet.
Baltimore is a worthy favourite to win the division, but that 11/10? Very very skinny.
Everything finally started to fall into place for the Cleveland Browns in 2020. Now can they take the next step in ‘21?
The Browns - thanks mainly to their lamentable annual performances in recent years - have been able to stockpile a talent-laden roster with the potential to make a Super Bowl run.
Finally they appear to have a front office, a head coach and a starting quarterback with the nous and ability to play up to and not down to expectations. In 2020 for example they had literally no receivers for a game (COVID), no HC for a game (COVID) and still managed to win.
Improvement from 6-10 to 11-5 was significant as GM Andrew Berry and HC Kevin Stefanski put the aforementioned Mayfield in a position to win.
The key was a potent ground game powered by the superb Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, which ranked third in the NFL, ate up the clock and allowed Baker to post impressive numbers (3563 passing yards, 26 TDs and 8 INTs). The very definition of a balanced attack.
While the rushing attack in Cleveland is stellar, Mayfield has an all-star receiving cast too with Odell Beckham Jr on the way back from injury. He teams up with Jarvis Landry to form a potenti combo when healthy. Rashard Higgins is another nice target while third-round draft pick Anthony Schwartz adds more talent to the group.
Cleveland is also stacked at tight end, with David Njoku, Austin Hooper and Harrison Bryant a potentially formidable trio. They provide not only more options for Mayfield, but also further anchor that ground game. The Browns on play-action are pretty special.
With a stellar rushing attack, it’s no surprise that Cleveland is good up front, and that goes for both sides of the ball. While the O-line is one of the league’s best, Cleveland has some pretty serious defensive line talent too.
Former #1 overall pick Myles Garrett needs no introduction - he’s a beast - and the free-agent addition of Jadeveon Clowney means some terrifying Sundays for opposing QBs in 2021.
The Browns didn’t stop with the acquisition of Clowney - they also snapped up depth in the shape of Malik Jackson and Tak McKinley.
Cleveland sunk significant resources into improving its linebacking corps too, with the choice of Notre Dame standout Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah in the second round of the draft.
If this team had a notable weakness in 2020 it was the secondary - susceptible to the deep ball and giving up too many points.
Help is arriving on the back end though, in the shape of Northwestern CB Greg Newsome II - taken in the first round of the 2021 Draft. Greedy Williams and Grant Delpit should return from injury to further bolster the unit.
Summary: Cleveland undoubtedly has the talent to win the North, the roster is built to win. That playoff win in Pittsburgh wasn’t even close (despite the final, the Browns were up 28-0 early).
There is star power everywhere and the house appears to be built. A championship has been a long time coming in Cleveland and we would not be surprised to see the Browns make a deep playoff run in 2021.
As an aside, if you think Mayfield will continue his positive progression in 2021, you could do worse than look at his odds for league MVP - he’s an enticing 33/1. There are worse bets at big prices.
If Burrow had not suffered that devastating knee injury against Washington in Week 11, we’d be pretty high on the chances of a winning record in Cincy in 2021. Now we are not so sure.
Joe looked like the future star the Bengals expected when they took him #1 overall, throwing for 12 TDs and just 5 INTs through 10 games. Then disaster struck.
Much now depends on how healthy he will be for training camp and then the 2021 season - the injury was significant. This Cincy team did flash potential with and without Burrow - wins over Tennessee and division rival Pittsburgh are not to be sniffed at.
Not surprisingly the Bengals looked to build around Burrow in the offseason, though we were a little surprised at how.
We expected Cincy to grab generational left tackle prospect Penei Sewell at #5 to protect Burrow’s blindside for the next decade. Instead it took his BFF WR from LSU in the shape of Ja’Marr Chase. He’s an elite talent, but the Bengals know what happens if you don’t protect…
Cincinnati did address its O-line in Round 2, taking Clemson tackle Jackson Carman in a bid to shore up the front. The signing of former Minnesota tackle RIley Reiff in free agency is a really smart move to back that up.
Chase, given his history with Burrow, should be able to hit the ground running and give Cincinnati an elite threat outside. Tee Higgins meanwhile is another fine option. On the ground though the Bengals need to finally see that potential of RB Joe Mixon being realised on a weekly basis.
On the defensive side of the ball Cincinnati must start getting to opposing quarterbacks - something they hardly did at alli in 2020.
The signing of former Saint Trey Hendrickson (13.5 sacks in 2020) for $60million over four years is a statement of intent. DT Larry Ogunjobi adds veteran depth after jumping across the division from Cleveland.
The Bengals also invested in defense in the draft, taking Texas DE Joseph Ossai in Round 3 and following up in Round 4 by snagging both Tulane DE Cameron Sample and LSU DT Tyler Shelvin.
The secondary also got some much-needed upgrades with the signings of former Dallas CB Chidobe Awuzie and former Steeler Mike Hilton. Not stunning moves, but you can’t have enough decent corners in the NFL.
Summary: It’s Year 3 for HC Zac Taylor in Cincinnati and he needs to start winning now or the experiment will not last much longer.
Taylor has the offensive pieces to hang in most games in 2021, while the defense is in clear need of improvement.
The Bengals absolutely must protect Burrow and keep his jersey clean for 17 games. If they can, then a respectable showing is eminently possible.
Odds correct at 1800 BST (27/07/21)
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