European Tour: Portugal Masters in-play golf betting preview and tips

Recommended bets

3pts Wil Besseling to win two-ball at 8/11

2pts Antoine Rozner to win two-ball at 7/5

1pt double Besseling and Rozner at 3.15/1

Make no mistake about it, 14-under for two rounds was a ridiculous score, even at the gettable Dom Pedro resort course, and Julien Guerrier wasn't being modest when he said "it looks easy but it isn't" at the halfway stage of the Portugal Masters.

Even two bogeys in his first half-dozen holes on Friday couldn't put him off scoring four unanswered birdies down the back and a five-shot lead looked pretty big going into Saturday's third round. Early scores indicated rounds of 65 and 66 were going to be commonplace throughout the afternoon but the wind got up, the greens got quicker and it got tougher for even the most talented out there.

The Frenchman, playing on medical exemption, looked nervous throughout the round despite a quality scramble from the back of the first hole. Having signed off with a round of 65 on his last visit and blitzed the field over two days of his return, that run of serene and sensational golf ended as he limped round in four-over.

Sixteen birdies over rounds one and two became zero in round three and he didn't play at all well - in fact he was dire. That he is still somewhat in contention is testament to something but having surrendered a massive, rarely-seen lead, he can't be fancied to turn this around.

History dictates that players turn up here, boom a long iron or wood of their choice, find a generous fairway or sparse rough, hit a receptive green and it's down to rolling the rock (a horrible phrase) to determine the winner. Indeed at halfway, the front two were not alone in having poor driving accuracy and scrambling figures - it doesn't matter when you can find even the toughest of greens from the rough.

Perhaps though the thicker rough which had been talked about prior to the tournament is ultimately the reason the leaders - Sihwan Kim included - weren't able to freewheel. That's why we have a tournament rather than the threatened procession, and with wind forecast on Sunday this course should continue to ask questions all the way through the 72nd hole and perhaps beyond.

Recent runnings suggest that it is tough to come from too far behind and but go back further and David Lynn stole the title from six back, a year after Shane Lowry had overturned a four-shot deficit. With the exception of leader George Coetzee there's not a great deal of pedigree among the leaders, and it's very possible we see someone steal it from off the pace.

The wind will be the main factor although there is also the fact that two of the three opening holes are playing above par, and that fearsome 18th demands a quality drive. Inbetween, however, the three par-fives and the driveable 15th are among a selection of holes which do open up opportunities whatever the weather, so it's fair to assume whoever does win this will have had to shoot something in the sixties.

I was all ready to cover the one player that the television commentators will be fawning over tomorrow, no matter where they are in the field, but Wilco Nienaber's couple of paragraphs will have to wait for another day after a bizarre round. Despite Mark Roe's flattery, he isn't Rasmus Hojgaard quite yet and Sam Walker's experience on the bag wasn't enough to settle him after his chance disappeared as he made a mess of the seventh out of nowhere.

Just by way of a note the 20-year-old said on Thursday he was low on energy and in a mid-round walk-along interview during the second round that he was missing family and friends at home. With a few players struggling over the past few weeks with the lockdown rules and with Portugal joining the quarantine ranks, these pressures have to be taken into account. He looked to have had enough by the time they hit the turn and he will do well to shrug that off on Sunday.

I expected much more of the two-ball of Nienaber and the first of my own pre-event picks ANTOINE ROZNER, and while all talk is of the South African, the 27-year-old Frenchman should have enjoyed being the less spoken about. Top-20 in greens found and ranking highly in par-four performance this year he has good memories of Portugal, having been runner-up at Morgado the year before his two victories on the Challenge Tour, one of which came in Spain.

He led the strokes-gained approach stats and was third in par-four performance last week, and those stats all combined should have made him a tricky man to keep out of the frame here. Not really under pressure in contention at the Andalucia Masters, the tied-third won't have felt anything but joy at his best result of the year and the escape with a bogey at the fourth today showed great temperament.

The two-time winner on the Challenge Tour seemed then to be overawed by his partner's eagle on five, bogeying that and the next couple before admirably fighting back with two late birdies. I'm convinced this was not anything like a true showing and I expect him to bounce back. That final-hole bogey gives him another go at the South African and there isn't as much between them as the odds suggest.

Well-fancied Coetzee looked as if he was going nowhere fast and justifying Guerrier's comment that this isn't as easy as it looks. In form at home and with a great record around these open tracks he was missing greens with eight bogeys in his opening two rounds, but then it got trickier, the leaders did what they did, he produced a brilliant finish, and somehow he's in front with a round to play.

The affable South African would still have thought he would be a couple off the pace after that near albatross on the par-five 17th hole, but now leading he has to be the rightful and overwhelming favourite here. He is easily the most frequent winner in the top ten and I can't see a negative - the question is only if he is worth a play at anything close to 6/4?

Given that he's yet to win outside of Africa, that there's a chance he tees off just as the wind gets up and that he's not always been the most resolute, the answer is probably no. Perhaps instead it could pay to watch him in-running with a view to siding with him if someone gets off to a flier and he goes off in pursuit.

Readers of this may well have followed Ben Coley's pre-tournament advice and are in a strong position regardless.

Many of the other pre-event market principals haven't played well with Haotong Li missing the cut by a mile and Ryan Fox again letting fans down, but favorite Tommy Fleetwood actually has a chance now, despite looking like he had got going far too late. He hasn't looked like being good enough with the putter and that may count against him, though a top-five is certainly not out of the question given the lack of winning form in front of him.

Notably, Fleetwood won the Nedbank Challenge from six back, when the course got appreciably tougher, and if he does get rolling he may yet be able to take a trophy with him to next week's US Open. Still, he'd presumably be happy enough to see some positive signs within his game.

Virtual unknown Masahiro Kawamura arrives on a top-10 finish last week and but is hard to weigh up, Sebastian Garcia-Rodriguez was awful in front at the Hero Open and will need help to win and while Niklas Lemke does have some correlating form to underpin Saturday's 65, he's been around a long time without yet winning. It happened for Steven Brown last year when Brandon Stone opened the door, and those closest to the leader may well need a similar favour from another South African if they're to cause a surprise.

Along with Ben, one of my own pre-event fancies as indicated on the Lost Fore Words podcast was Laurie Canter, who has stuck to his task really well despite having endured a frustrating week on the greens. He is looking terrific from tee to green and has already had a 10th, fifth and 13th in the half-dozen starts since returning but, despite those, really should have performed better through the final rounds at Hanbury Manor and The Belfry.

He's in there with a chance and as I don't think Coetzee will be going backwards, the chase may be the way that Canter would prefer to play. That said he still appeals more for a top five finish than anything else. If you are already on, having followed either advice, there is no need to play again.

Back to the two-balls and while WIL BESSELING is no youngster, he is playing as well as he ever has, and at a higher level. Another of my own pre-event picks, he is unlikely to win but wouldn't be a million to place tomorrow given his final-round efforts recently and it makes perfect sense to exploit that for the day's best bet.

The Dutchman's skillset is all about power hitting and finding greens and he ranks highly in every such aspect. His putting lacks a little but nobody can be perfect in every department and he's been in good form all summer, including when third at Valderrama.

He won't lose for accuracy but key to the bet are some excellent closing efforts, notably three recent rounds in the sixties and a perfectly solid 72 last Sunday in Spain. He is on an upward curve this week after two 70s and a third-round 68 and is fancied to make a move.

Opponent Grant Forrest has some transferable overall form in the desert but has only broken 72 on two occasions in his last 10 Sunday rounds, with efforts of 76, 75 twice and 74, and currently trails 5-0 in head-to-head fourth round scores. Besseling rates banker material.

Very simply, if Big George doesn't get the job done - and he really should - this is as open as anything. Canter is as likely as anyone to serve it up to him but shocks here do happen, and the list of potential champions is long. Much longer than it appeared at halfway, anyway.

Posted at 2000 BST on 12/09/20

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