Ben Coley's WGC-Mexico Championship golf betting tips
Ben Coley previews the WGC-Mexico Championship, where a trio of Englishmen can make their mark at a course which will suit.
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When the PGA Tour decided that Trump National Doral was no longer for them, they meant it, because the contrast between Doral and Club de Golf Chapultepec, home of the revamped WGC-Mexico Championship, looks to be a stark one.
Post-revamp, Doral had become a long-ball paradise unlike any other. The 2016 leaderboard confirms that it was all but impossible to get competitive if not among the longest drivers in world golf. Twenty-two players broke par and 19 classify as above-average in length terms; at least half are certified bombers.
Such dynamics help us to unravel tournaments, but they don’t create much of a spectacle, and so it’s a great thing for the event and the Tour in general that we’re now in Mexico City, where the altitude – around 8,000ft – means everybody can get the ball out there.
The trouble is, this 7,330-yard par 71 is unlikely to yield to such a straightforward plan of attack. A hole-by-hole flyover suggests that Chapultepec is tight and that suspicion has already been backed up by various players, with Tommy Fleetwood emphasising the importance of driving the ball well and comparing the track to some of those found in Italy and Spain on the European Tour.
The altitude factor must also be considered as the ball is going to travel a lot further than usual here, meaning preparation and clear thinking is key. The 2014 BMW Championship played in Denver, Colorado is a good reference point, as is the Barracuda Championship, while on the European Tour the closest comparison in altitude terms comes courtesy of the Omega European Masters at Crans Montana.
I’m of the belief that the course and conditions could change the dynamic of this World Golf Championship. The Cadillac, as it was known, has never been won by a non-PGA Tour player while the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational seldom is, but with a tight, potentially European-style course at altitude which only one of the field has played competitively, a shock may well be on the cards.
Altitude lends itself to producing strange results. The Barracuda is low-grade and therefore by definition likely to produce lesser-known winners, but even so names like Matt Bettencourt, Parker McLachlin and even Greg Chalmers would’ve been extremely hard to dig out beforehand.
The aforementioned BMW Championship threw up a semi-surprising winner in Billy Horschel, an 80/1 chance beforehand, with Morgan Hoffmann third courtesy of a stunning 62-63 weekend. Given that this was a FedEx Cup Playoff event, Bubba Watson being the highest-ranked player inside the top-five is a little surprising and perhaps a nod to the vagaries of golf in the sky.
A final point here: the one WGC to be played at altitude, albeit nowhere near the levels we’re set for here, is the Match Play – or at least it used to be. In six editions played at Dove Mountain, around 700m above sea level, there were just two US players who made the final, one all-European Tour showdown and a victory for Geoff Ogilvy, who has also won the Barracuda. In other words, they didn’t tend to go to the form book.
Despite all that, my intention for many weeks had been to side with an American in Gary Woodland.
A big-hitter who doesn’t need the help, Woodland has much more to his game than many bombers and in fact, much of his best form has come on tight courses – places like Kuala Lumpur and Copperhead.
Woodland has won the Barracuda, too, while he has WGC form having made the Match Play final last year. He won’t mind the poa annua greens having played some of his best golf on the west coast and that form at Kuala Lumpur could be reasonably significant along with a previous second place in Mexico.
Unfortunately, I can’t put him up at a best of 50/1 and shortening all the time. It’s approaching four years since the most recent of just two comparatively low-grade wins and while golf tipping is more about projection than reflection, Woodland simply looks a false price. I would have wanted 80/1.
In contrast, it’s less than a year since Danny Willett won the Masters, the culmination of a two-year climb up the rankings which included going close in this tournament under its previous guise.
Willett had previously made the semi-finals of the 2015 Match Play and finished third in the HSBC Champions, so his form at this level has been strong for some time. Indeed, given that he didn’t play a World Golf Championship in 2013 or 2014, three starts prior coming when he was not yet ready, he’s effectively hit the frame in three attempts from seven.
Such numbers only take us so far and it’s quite clear that Willett has endured an up-and-down 10 months since taking advantage of an opportunity handed to him by Jordan Spieth at Augusta.
Right now, he’s still bedding in some swing changes and in some part they help explain his poor display as 54-hole leader in Malaysia two starts ago, where he barely scraped a place after a closing 73 having led by three shots with a round to go. It’s an opportunity he will have expected to take.
There are further examples of disappointing weekend play from last year, notably at Wentworth and in the Irish Open won by Rory McIlroy, but he didn’t do much wrong when pushing Francesco Molinari all the way in Italy and what all of this demonstrates is that, despite being inconsistent, he’s still had several chances to win for what would be a sixth time in less than five years.
Even last week’s Honda Classic effort, where he missed the cut, offered some encouragement. Willett fought back from a nightmare start to shoot an opening 69 and was three-under with seven to play in round two, only for a couple of bogeys followed by a double at the difficult 17th to see him miss out by one.
The case for Willett extends beyond his fair form and relative class compared to those around him in the market as the fundamental reason for siding with him is that I’m convinced he’s going to love this golf course.
Look at where Willett tends to contend, and there’s a common theme: definition from the tee. Tree-lined golf courses are without doubt those he prefers, from Augusta to Fanling and stopping at various places – Milano, Saujana, Kuala Lumpur, Wentworth, Crans – inbetween.
He’s won at altitude and he’s beaten the best in the world, so in an event packed with in-form superstars we at least know that Willett can stand alongside them and hold his own.
Accepting that he could play poorly, Willett simply looks overpriced at 125/1 and on a course which really should suit, that’s enough for me.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello is another frequent contender on the European Tour’s tighter courses and he's a factor here at 100/1, but again that’s a price which says his consistency should be considered a more valuable asset than Willett’s class and with four rounds for everyone, I’m not sure that’s the case.
Instead, I like the look of Tommy Fleetwood at twice the price.
The Southport man is back where he belongs following a difficult couple of years and in many ways reminds me of Willett, who placed in this event last year before going on to win the Masters, having started the season with a victory in the Middle East.
Fleetwood beat a field including Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson to land the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and while that event does tend to see the favourites come up short on what’s typically their first start in months, this year’s winner is good enough to use victory as a springboard.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, his run of weekends ended after that triumph – a dip we often see from winners – but he was flushing it again in Malaysia last time. The last four cuts Fleetwood has made, he’s led the field in ball-striking each time, and since last summer he’s had his ball on a string. In that department, he is world-class and make no mistake.
It’s also worth noting his strong record at Crans where he’s twice been inside the top 10, while Fleetwood has contended at Fanling, in Italy and at Wentworth to further underline the suitability of this type of golf course.
An in-form ball-striker with potential to really establish himself on the world stage, the switch from Doral comes at an ideal time for Fleetwood and at 200/1 he’s worth having on-side.
It would be peculiar not to at least reference the top of the market, given that Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, Sergio Garcia and Jon Rahm have all won already this year.
Victory for any one of them would further whet the appetite with Augusta approaching, while Henrik Stenson and Rory McIlroy are of course in there too even if the latter will do well to win on his first start since he was sidelined with a fractured rib.
I suspect this may be more Spieth’s bag and he played well at the 2014 BMW Championship, so he would get the token vote even if victory at Pebble Beach shouldn’t hide the fact that poa annua putting surfaces are his least favourite.
The poa annua/kikuyu mix we’re set for here is one found at Riviera, where Johnson won a fortnight ago, and he’s a worthy favourite but if there’s a flawless case for him being value and worth backing at 7/1, I can’t see it.
In fact I’m not joking when I say I’d rather back Sam Brazel, a 750/1 chance who won at Fanling, has played well a couple of times since and could further enhance the strong record of Australians at altitude – even if that may well be a spurious link.
However, it’s stretching things to suggest he can go from 37-year-old maiden to 38-year-old WGC winner so I’ll stick with two more outsiders who have what I consider realistic prospects.
First is Matt Fitzpatrick, the European Tour’s standout young talent who won the DP World Tour Championship at the end of 2016.
That’s three wins in his first two seasons at the top table and underlines that this former US Amateur champion has all the tools to go to the very top of the game.
Fitzpatrick is a straight driver with a big-time mentality and he was runner-up to Willett in the Swiss mountains a couple of years ago, two months before breaking through at tree-lined Woburn.
After that, he added seventh place on his WGC debut in China and last year’s similar finish on his first start as a professional at Augusta further demonstrates that he has the class to win this week, regardless of who else is in contention.
As with so many of his age, Fitzpatrick is in and out so while a modest effort in the Honda Classic last week may raise some concerns, it’s no more relevant than a previous tie for fifth in the Dubai Desert Classic where he told reporters that his game had felt great for some time.
Form at courses such as Fanling and Golf Club Milano further underlines that this week’s venue should prove suitable and there may not be many more chances to back Fitzpatrick in this sort of field at this sort of price.
Finally, I want to side with Kevin Na in some way and the top-five and top-10 markets look best.
In essence, Na is another accurate type, with form at altitude and at some of the PGA Tour’s tighter courses, such as Harbour Town and Silverado.
He’s twice placed at Riviera, including on his latest start two weeks ago, and has also gone close at Kuala Lumpur, home of the CIMB Classic, plus Copperhead and Sawgrass.
These events have all allowed Na to flourish with a game based around accuracy, and having looked in really good shape last time I can see him carrying that momentum to his best WGC finish, having done really well to share ninth at Doral a couple of years ago.
Na is 25/1 for a top-five finish and 10s for a top-10, both of which look good business and the right way to go given that he has just one win to his name from over 300 starts.
Posted at 1230 GMT on 28/02/17.