WGC-Match Play golf: Day two preview and free betting tips from Ben Coley
Ben Coley previews day two of the WGC-Match Play Championship, where Branden Grace can bounce back from his day-one defeat to an inspired opponent.
Recommended bets:
4pts Branden Grace to beat Julian Suri at 20/21
1pt Brendan Steele to beat Tyrrell Hatton at 13/8
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Day one of the WGC-Match Play saw the top two in the market humbled by opponents who had done little to suggest they were capable. It saw Jordan Spieth win despite continuing to look shaky with the putter, and it saw Justin Thomas fall over the line against a player who improved the moment he swapped his putter for a wedge.
Jon Rahm got out of jail with a half, just like my selection Zach Johnson, and 12 of the 32 matches went down 18. That gave Austin Country Club the chance to show off once more, and it's a brilliant course for match play - almost as if Tom Fazio designed it specifically for use in this event.
While day one sets the scene, day two will begin to answer questions.
For both Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy, humbled by Bernd Wiesberger and Peter Uihlein respectively, the mission is simple: win both remaining matches. In doing so, they will still need to rely on someone else beating their day one conquerors, and likely have to come through a play-off on Friday evening. It's not an insurmountable task, but it's little wonder their respective outright odds have tripled.
At the head of the market now sits arguably the world's best player on current form, and Thomas may yet finish the week at the top of the Official World Golf Rankings for the first time in his career.
Thomas is the obvious winner now if we consider what's happened in this event since it switched to a round-robin group format. All three champions were seeded first or second, all six finalists won every match, and with Johnson having lost 3&1, that leaves Thomas as the only remaining candidate if these sequences are to be extended.
Yet he was not impressive on Wednesday, whether you take the scorecard literally or simply watched his clash with Luke List, who almost fought back from three down despite breaking his putter mid-round. Thomas still has enough to prove both in the format and at the course and a general 8/1 can be left alone for the time being.
More tempting is Jason Day, who we know thrives in the format and loves the course. The Aussie scored a little better than Thomas and was pleased with his performance against James Hahn; he's looking for a third win in the event and is arguably the man to beat at this stage.
For now, I'm hanging fire as in Day's group, it was Louis Oosthuizen who fared best of my pre-tournament selections. He held off a stirring fightback from Jason Dufner with a seriously good birdie at the last and I would expect him to beat Hahn today, setting up a Friday showdown with the only man in this event who has beaten him at this golf course.
If you are looking for an outright bet - and I strongly suggest holding fire for now - Jon Rahm may well be the answer. He's eased just a shade in the market after a day one tie with Keegan Bradley which doesn't change a great deal. If Rahm wins his next two matches, he'll either top the group or face Bradley in a play-off, and he could still earn the latter by staying unbeaten.
Rahm played scintillating golf early on yesterday but ended the match feeling like he'd stolen one. I expect him to beat Chez Reavie today and with such momentum, he'll be a strong favourite to beat Kiradech Aphibarnrat on Friday. Pre-tournament concerns as to how big a challenge that will be remain, but he looks a fair price.
A double on Oosthuizen and Rahm pays around the 7/4 mark and looks solid, but a better bet at a similar price is Brendan Steele to beat Tyrrell Hatton at 13/8.
Steele was on my shortlist pre-tournament due to the fact that he's playing the best golf of his career, he's a winner in Texas, and his strength off the tee should ensure his opponents are under constant pressure.
That was the case as he dominated the first 12 holes of his match with Charley Hoffman, who did well to fight back as Steele struggled a little to close the door on one of his closest friends on the circuit.
Hatton wasn't pleased with his swing at Bay Hill and while he saw off Alex Levy with relative ease yesterday, his post-round interview wouldn't have filled backers with confidence.
Perhaps crucially, he stated a desire for calm conditions to remain through the week - there's a little more wind in the forecast today, and I wonder whether it might expose him a little if he's not comfortable over the ball.
Either way, Steele played the better golf of the two against a more difficult opponent and he looks overpriced in what probably amounts to something like a 50-50 game.
Earlier on, Kevin Chappell is worth considering against Tommy Fleetwood, who struggled on Wednesday. Chappell made six birdies in a 3&2 victory over Presidents Cup team-mate Daniel Berger and 11/8 looks generous.
However, the best bet of the day comes midway through the afternoon with Branden Grace fancied to beat Julian Suri.
Grace was on the end of the biggest drubbing of the first round of matches, but he simply came up against Bubba Watson at his best. Grace was one-under on the scorecard for the first nine holes, yet found himself six down as Bubba made seven birdies to all but end the contest.
Grace, who fought hard to take it all the way to the 15th, will know that a second crack at Watson could yet await if he wins his remaining two matches, and prices of 20/21 and 19/20 about him beating Suri look an overreaction to the bare results.
Suri beat an out-of-sorts Marc Leishman but may in fact need to up his game again to beat Grace, despite what happened yesterday. The American says he's playing with a chip on his shoulder - the implication being that some don't believe he deserves to be in the field - and perhaps that contributed to a strong performance.
However, he's been struggling to follow one good day with another all year and Grace rates a strong fancy at the price. Had this been a day-one contest he'd have been a 4/7 chance and the move towards Suri looks far too pronounced.
Posted at 0920 GMT on 22/03/18.