Golf betting tips: Final-round preview of Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Golf betting tips: Zurich Classic of New Orleans
1.5pts e.w. Bubba Watson and Scottie Scheffler at 9/1 (Betway 1/5 1,2,3)
Whisper it, but the Zurich Classic of New Orleans looks like it will produce a result which could be described as predictable — some would say despite its pairs format, when perhaps it's because of.
Whether or not you happened to fancy 54-hole leaders Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen, here we have two major winners who both played quite well in the Masters last time. Behind them, Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith have renewed their World Cup partnership with great success, while Cameron Champ and Tony Finau have put their similar games to use.
Then we have have Viktor Hovland and Kristoffer Ventura, another same-nationality pairing between the PGA Tour's two Norwegian players. They're two back after an excellent finish to round three, Ventura more than doing his bit. Alongside them sit Bubba Watson and Scottie Scheffler, the latter again demonstrating that any format which emphasises the worth of his prolific birdie-making is especially suitable.
Five teams, each with at least one genuinely world-class talisman. In fact, they all have a player inside the top 35 of the world rankings, and given that just 13 such players turned up, class has been key. More to the point, it is very hard for any player to carry another over 72 holes of team golf and among the 10 players mentioned, only Ventura is yet to really establish himself as a global star.
It could all very well end in tears for followers of my pre-event selections, with Leishman and Smith put up win-only at 12/1, and 55/1 shots Thomas Pieters and Tom Lewis sitting in the final place payout, but a similar line-up next year would again make this a tournament worth taking seriously. There aren't that many realistic winners and you still get seven places and 15/2 the field.
Taking it seriously precisely what those in the mix will do and it's 33/1 bar the five teams mentioned ahead of Sunday's foursomes, an alternate-shot format which will expose any frailties on a course which has more than played its part.
It's foursomes which has so far determined the outcome of this event, and that is the sole negative when it comes to Leishman and Smith who for my money should be favourites. It isn't my style to be bullish, but it really is tempting to go in again at 100/30 as they look to hold an outstanding chance, but for the fact they shot 72 in this format on Friday.
So far, all three winners of this event led in foursomes scoring, and it's unlikely Leishman and Smith will do so. Their first go highlights the volatility of the format, Leishman's wayward tee-shot to the 17th costing them two shots, but otherwise they were a little unfortunate to make one of just two other bogeys and I still rate them an ideal match for this, particularly with Leishman having warmed to his task throughout the week.
There's no doubt in-form Smith carried him early on, but Leishman was responsible for the three back-nine birdies which helped them climb to second at the end of round three, and if he continues to fire they could take a heck of a lot of stopping. Those yet to get involved should certainly back the Australians to deliver.
Oosthuizen and Schwartzel have been friends since they were teens and I don't wish to underestimate them, particularly as it was the latter who produced much of their best golf in the third round. Schwartzel has made a few cuts lately, and played well in the Masters, so there are signs he's hit form at just the right time.
Nevertheless, both have found winning in the US a little difficult — Oosthuizen is in fact yet to manage it — and I would be a little surprised if they did any better than Friday's 71. The fact Schwartzel is the only player on the circuit who uses a Clear golf ball is also a bit of a worry, for all Oosthuizen said it felt similar to his ProV1, and the bottom line is I think they'll get turned over.
By whom is difficult to say, but BUBBA WATSON and SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER look the ones for a cover shot if you did follow the pre-tournament advice.
Having been just one off the best foursomes score on Friday, these two have shown they can get it done in the format and in making six birdies they demonstrated the damage they can do thanks to brilliant long-games.
The worry coming in would've been Watson's form, but he's found something back at a course where he won as an individual before the change in format. In that respect he could emulate Billy Horschel, who collected his second title here when partnering Scott Piercy to victory in the 2018 edition.
Scheffler is yet to win on the PGA Tour but is plainly close to doing so and was outstanding at the Match Play last month. He makes stacks of birdies, as we saw on Saturday, but it's the way he found comfort in this format which offers encouragement.
"I think for alternate-shot, especially the way he plays golf, I feel like I'm never going to put him in a bad spot," said the Texan. "I feel like he can play from anywhere. I just have a lots of confidence in him and the way he plays golf, and it makes me really comfortable out there playing alternate-shot."
Just as Leishman will feel Smith can conjure something if he hits a poor approach shot, Scheffler clearly feels comfortable placing his faith Watson's powers of recovery, and at three times the price of the favourites they look a good bet.
Finau and Champ are respected having shot 68 in foursomes on Friday, but Champ's short-game in particular is a worry. Hovland and Ventura would be of greater interest at the prices but there's no doubt Ventura is the weak link among the five most likely winners and his illustrious playing partner may have to do too much heavy lifting.
Beyond these it's 33/1 and bigger, and only one other team broke 70 in the foursomes — that was Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose, who are eight back and 750/1 with bet365. Silly as it sounds they might place if they can go one or two lower than their 68, with a 66 taking them to 19-under, the score the leaders are on. With foursomes typically resulting in an over-par average the potential for a skinner from off the pace does exist.
Perhaps backing them for a top-10 finish would make more sense and of the more realistic threats, it's Lewis and Pieters who I like. Again, that's an uncomfortable feeling having put them up at 55/1, but these two strong drivers made just one bogey on Friday, which was a three-putt on their very first hole, and were excellent on Saturday.
There's definitely a concern Pieters will hook one into water at some stage but until they reach the 16th things might look promising. Well capable of winning from three back, this European pairing should also be considered but having put them up pre-tournament, there's no temptation to go back in.
That isn't the case with the Australian duo, who look the most likely winners of a tournament which follows the form book more than some might have you believe.
Posted at 0740 BST on 25/04/21
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