European Tour: ISPS Handa Wales Open betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Gavin Green at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Jordan Smith at 35/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Sean Crocker at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Brandon Stone at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Joachim B. Hansen at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Martin Simonsen at 250/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

In any other year, back-to-back tournaments at the same golf course would be uniquely underwhelming. In 2020, it's a move both the PGA Tour and the European Tour have been forced to make. That's why, when you tune into Sky Sports on Thursday, you might think you're watching a replay: Celtic Manor's 2010 Course will look and possibly even play exactly as it did last week.

Speaking of replays, you would've been forgiven for thinking you were watching one on Sunday as Sam Horsfield beat Thomas Detry, just as he had a fortnight earlier at the Forest of Arden. Things were a little more straightforward this time as the American-Englishman completed a run of 1-MC-1 which is in keeping with his profile. He had to call upon a fabulous short-game late in the tournament, but ultimately looked in control from the moment a 20-foot birdie try found the cup on the third hole. Playing the weekend without a bogey, he was a class apart.

Winning for a third time in four weeks is perfectly possible, and as he grows in confidence and stature he'll likely find a way to if not eliminate then at least minimise his mistakes. Horsfield gave the chasing pack a lifeline with a triple-bogey at the 17th hole in round two of the Celtic Classic, before making eagle at the 18th. For now that's him, but you watch him go if he can turn triples into bogeys without losing all that makes him so electrifying. If he does it this week, even prices of 12/1 - cut in half and then a little bit more - might look generous.

First it's important to establish whether last week will be as reliable a guide to this one as we might reasonably expect. That was not the case in the Memorial Tournament on the PGA Tour, where crossover from the preceding Workday Open was limited. However, there's a big asterisk: Jack Nicklaus wanted his event, the second one, to be a major-like test, and as the greens were being dug up afterwards he was able to let things get out of hand while thick rough grew thicker. Celtic Manor's rough is wispy and sparse, and its greens will be kept slow by a combination of rain and necessity.

The spanner in the works, potentially at least, is wind. It can really blow through this course, which sits in a valley, and with water in play at least half the time that can change the dynamics quite drastically. It's why we've seen tournaments won in single-figures under-par here in the past, and not because fields were weaker than this one. To an extent what happened in the Celtic Classic, where young birdie-makers dominated, is symbolic of the changing of the sport, but it's also true that conditions could not have been friendlier, yet it still played tougher than Hanbury Manor.

With more rain around this week, Celtic Manor's 2010 Course should be soft, long and ideal for scoring, but that breeze in the forecast - enough to demand attention throughout but genuinely stiff on Friday and Saturday - should be enough to steer you clear of Horsfield. He'll have to show another string to his bow entirely and let's not forget how poor he was after the first win. Even if he is learning quickly enough, will he get those small breaks every player needs to triumph twice in three weeks? It might have been none had Thomas Detry holed from four feet in the Hero Open, after all.

Despite bagging place money with Andrew Johnston, I felt I got the Celtic Classic wrong, but that was largely down to the weather and in the hope a bit of wind does keep a lid on scoring, the first port of call was last week's staking plan. With Beef much shorter, Richie Ramsay disappointing and Thorbjorn Olesen hitting it horribly, that left Alex Bjork and JORDAN SMITH, and it's the latter who gets a second chance.

Bjork made a nice move in round three, but was never in the conversation yet is a slightly shorter price here. Smith, on the other hand, was firmly in contention during round two, only to struggle from the moment television coverage went live. That could be significant, because he was wearing a microphone, a new experience for him and one which may or may not have affected his performance.

Whatever the case, he was a little unlucky at the 14th, his three-wood hit so purely that it ran out of fairway and into water. At the 15th, the easiest hole on the course, a mishit three-wood and three putts cost him a shot, or rather a shot and a half the way that driveable par-four was playing. Suddenly, in 15 minutes, he'd fallen from inside the top 10 to outside the top 20 with hopes of winning the tournament all but gone.

That's been the case for much of Smith's play since the UK Swing began: one step forward, two steps back, never better demonstrated than when he went from five-under through 11 in the Hero Open to missing the cut for the first time since last September. On balance, though, the signs are positive, his tee-to-green stats right where they should be for one of the circuit's better ball-strikers and, crucially, more encouragement on and around the greens.

Late last year, Smith was hitting the ball well enough to win, but putting horribly. He seems to have figured things out as he gained strokes in three of his five starts to begin 2020, and has done in each of his last two. Year-on-year he's up from 165th to 76th and having had the chance to watch him for a few holes last Friday, there certainly didn't appear anything to worry about.

The case last week included his strong Le Golf National form, which worked out through the big three in contention - Horsfield, Detry and Thomas Pieters having all gone well on the outskirts of Paris. It also relied on toughening of conditions, and by rights we should get a slight turn of the difficulty dial with that wind which is forecast, plus perhaps some experimentation with tees. I don't think it'll be significant, but the European Tour would presumably rather a Wales Open be more demanding and any movement that way will be welcome.

Four par-fives and a driveable par-four play to Smith's strengths off the tee and top-six finishes at Hillside and Walton Heath, as well as in Doha, underline the fact that this really should suit. I didn't think Smith was far away at all in the Celtic Classic, and I don't think he'll be far away come the weekend.

Pieters made a fine return and managed not to snap a club when he too made a hash of the 15th, early evidence perhaps that fatherhood will be the making of him. Like Horsfield, though, he's halved in price and while he's a class apart from most of these, and has a US Open spot to play for, there's no temptation whatsoever to go in at short prices. Backing favourites so far during the UK Swing has been expensive and while that alone doesn't prohibit going in on the right ones, it probably serves as a reminder that at this level, we're not necessarily talking about players high on reliability.

GAVIN GREEN has played plenty of golf this year which is of a standard worthy of a place higher up the betting, and this Malaysian youngster can build on a final-round 63 on Sunday.

That dazzling effort, eight birdies and 10 pars of excellent play, suggests Green was not only getting to grips with Celtic Manor, but also finding his early-season form having been late to the party. He'd only started his own UK Swing the previous week, missing the cut despite a pair of 69s, and six rounds - each of them under-par - should have him spot-on for this.

Green's iron play and putting were both excellent, the former about as good as he ever gets, in fact, and it was only the driver which cost him better than a never-nearer 11th. Typically that club is a strength - he was 31st in strokes-gained off-the-tee last year and is 27th this - and again it's expected that he's able to fine-tune in time for another go at a course which suits.

Though Green is young, long, aggressive and capable of exceptionally low scoring, he has plenty of form in the wind including in both the Irish and Scottish Opens, plus the British Masters. Don't discount the Saudi International, either, at a water-laden course where the breeze was stiff throughout this year's renewal, in which Green finished third behind Graeme McDowell and Dustin Johnson, with Pieters and Phil Mickelson alongside.

His Czech Masters form also correlates well with an easier Celtic Manor on paper, and whichever way conditions go he looks a strong contender to be the next young slugger to take advantage of these resort courses and fairly weak fields.

Speaking of which, though SEAN CROCKER's price has been contracting week to week, that's a reflection of upward trends throughout his game and he's another with the ability to take advantage of these opportunities.

A one-time top-class amateur, Crocker found his feet as a professional under the watchful eye of Sergio Garcia and quickly showed himself capable of winning on the European Tour, contending for the Qatar Masters when playing on invites.

His first full year on the circuit was solid and included a runner-up finish on a tough course in Morocco, and this strong ball-striker showed a liking for Celtic Manor when 22nd last week.

It could and perhaps should have been better still, as he made an eight at the par-five ninth during round three, nevertheless that performance extends his good play which began at the Hero Open (15th) and continued through the English Championship (ninth) and over the border to Wales.

Crucially, Crocker's approach-play rankings have climbed throughout the UK Swing - 40th, 24th, 11th, seventh - and he'll likely have taken some inspiration from Horsfield's exploits. They are very similar talents, and indeed shared medalist honours at the 2014 US Junior Amateur, when making their way towards the top of the World Amateur Golf Rankings.

Like fellow 23-year-old Horsfield, Crocker grew up in America having been born on a different continent, and it would be no surprise whatsoever were he to produce a similarly assured performance to make his own breakthrough at a course which is not particularly complicated for all it can be demanding in the right conditions.

Sami Valimaki was the first name onto the shortlist having returned to form over the weekend, making just one bogey and producing the sort of strong, through-the-bag performance which preceded his 250/1 Oman Open win back in February. The big Finn has courage and class and took to Celtic Manor, but he's been heavily supported early on and the price just looks about right.

With players like him, nobody should be claiming they know what precisely the right price is - his current ability, rate of improvement and ceiling are all very hard to pin down - so it comes down to the individual and perception. Mine is that he'll likely play well again but that there are sufficient risks in a volatile profile to look elsewhere.

Those comments about risk and volatility apply equally to BRANDON STONE, the man who Valimaki touched off in Oman, but this quality South African has eased to the same sort of price now and looks worth chancing.

Stone was in the mix two weeks ago at Hanbury Manor and was on the radar for Celtic Manor on account of both that and two good performances in the Open de France at Le Golf National. Just to reiterate the comparison between that course and this one, both these Ryder Cup venues are stadium-like in nature, include wispy rough and water hazards, and have thrown up some remarkably strong leaderboard ties and several cross-tournament champions.

Typical of the man, in some respects, Stone let supporters down in the Celtic Classic but his ball-striking really stood out among those who didn't make the weekend. Stone gained 3.5 stokes off the tee and another on approach, both of which were in fact much better than the English Championship, the difference being his short-game last Thursday and Friday was woeful.

Had he made the cut and hit the ball as he had during those first two rounds, Stone would've comfortably led in strokes-gained off-the-tee and ranked around 18th in approaches. That would of course have been far from certain given his overall profile, but nevertheless underlines that this was no ordinary missed cut. In fact, he struck the ball well enough to be playing in the final few groups on Saturday.

Short-game numbers are harder to predict than ball-striking, and Stone had been very good on the greens in the English Championship. This is a player who produced a 12-stroke turnaround with the putter from one week to the next earlier this season and rather than get bogged down in what we should expect this time, my focus is on six rounds which will have generated real confidence in his swing.

Now living in London for much of the year and having won a Rolex Series event in Scotland, showcasing what he can do in a breeze, Stone should feel right at home during this part of the season and for all he's prone to a blowout, I've a feeling we'll see him at his best here.

His compatriot Jacques Kruyswijk caught the eye with some excellent long-game statistics last week and could build on a share of 14th. This 27-year-old is better than he's shown, particularly when able to showcase his power off the tee, and is one to watch along with the awesome Wilco Nienaber, who is going places and fast.

Both are respected but there are two I prefer at bigger odds, namely Joel Sjoholm and MARTIN SIMONSEN.

Sjoholm likes it here and has ranked second and first in strokes-gained approach in two of his last three starts, leading the field in the Celtic Classic. The Swede is yet to win at this level but went close in the Alfred Dunhill Championship towards the end of 2019, and from a ball-striking perspective has never been better.

He's respected, but Simonsen is the one who looks worth a roll of the dice after impressing when earning a late call-up following Alex Levy's withdrawal prior to the Celtic Classic.

The Dane was sent straight into one of those marquee groups and more than held his own, ultimately finishing 47th having been 26th a week earlier when getting into the English Championship as an alternate. In both events he's hit the ball really well, ranking 14th and 12th in strokes-gained approach, and he was sixth entering the final round at Hanbury Manor before a tough finish.

It struck me that he played 68 of the 72 holes in par or better last week, a mighty effort on his first look at the course, and it has to help that he's not waiting around for someone to drop out this time. Four competitive rounds plus knowing he has a tee-time guaranteed could make the world of difference to his preparation and he hasn't been far off in either of the last two events.

I'm also hoping that this wind in the forecast does help the Scandinavians in general and if it isn't Simonsen who follows Jeppe Huldahl and Steen Tinning in winning at this course, perhaps it might be J.B. HANSEN.

Having finished runner-up at Le Golf National last October, Hansen is of immediate interest despite having skipped last week. When last seen he was 53rd in the English Championship, where he impressed Lee Westwood in the third round after they were paired together.

It's no wonder he did, given that Hansen ranked second in strokes-gained approach for the week, and while yet to put four rounds together he has made 57 birdies and three eagles across his three appearances so far in the UK Swing.

At 17th in birdie average last season yet having shown he can tough it out when missing out on a fine chance to win in France, Hansen is another who should be able to adapt to whatever the weather brings, and his absence last week is less of a worry given that he was 22nd here back in 2014.

Back then a third-round 65 was bettered only by four and the hope is, now that he returns a much improved player, he can keep the big numbers off his card and work his way into the mix.

Posted at 1900 BST on 17/08/20

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