After a 200/1 runner-up last week, Ben Coley is once again looking for a big-priced contender as he previews the Valspar Championship.
Recommended bets: Valspar Championship
0.5pt e.w. Bryson DeChambeau at 350/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) – point to prove on a course he knows well
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After a successful WGC debut in Mexico City, the PGA Tour returns to Florida and something of a deep breath between the top-grade events which have already ensured that 2017 will be a year to remember.
Not that the field for the Valspar Championship is devoid of quality, with Justin Thomas seeking a fourth success of the season and Henrik Stenson making his third trip to a course which has seen him produce quality golf through all eight rounds, finishing fourth in 2015 and 11th, despite nursing an injury, 12 months ago.
The latter performance is particularly encouraging with this week in mind, as it confirmed that some reasonably significant changes to the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort won’t harm the chances of one of golf’s foremost ball-strikers, who has an obvious chance if forgiven last week’s shocking golf which preceded a withdrawal on stomach bug grounds.
It’s probably fair to assume that Stenson will get back on track here, but it’s hard to gather confidence following a withdrawal – harder still to justify a bet at a relatively short price – and with JT having to bounce back from a poor Sunday for which his attitude was criticised, the favourites look there to be taken on.
A par 71 which winds its way up, down and around, Copperhead is unique among the Florida layouts used on the PGA Tour in that respect and is perhaps more reminiscent of tracks like Harbour Town, Southwind and even Colonial, which are found further along the east coast.
As such, leaderboards have tended to look a little different to those seen in the Honda and at Bay Hill. In fact, there was a distinctly Riviera flavour to last year’s renewal, won via a play-off by Charl Schwartzel, whose only other success on US soil came at another tree-lined classic in Augusta National.
Perhaps the most compelling course correlation would be with TPC Southwind, where Daniel Berger broke his duck last summer, and this Florida native with winning amateur form at Copperhead is among the more tempting options at a best of 30/1.
Last year’s runner-up Bill Haas is probably more solid at the same price but arguably less likely to go ahead and win the event, comments which also apply to Matt Kuchar and former winner Gary Woodland, while the unquestionably ruthless Patrick Reed has form questions to answer.
More appealing than all of them is Ryan Moore, placed here in both 2015 and 2016, but – and colour me predictable – I’m more inclined to roll the dice once more in an event where there are tempting propositions at every price bracket, right down to the most absurd, more on which later.
First, it’s to a reasonably sensible selection in Ollie Schiederjans.
Quite rightly, Thomas, Jon Rahm, Thomas Pieters and one or two others dominate conversations about who the next big thing is, even if that all seems a little silly given that 32-year-old Dustin Johnson is by far and away the old man of the current big thing brigade.
But Schniederjans might just be the next cab off the rank in terms of breakthrough PGA Tour winners, having already bagged three top-10 finishes in what’s his rookie season, on the back of a standout amateur career which included a remarkable 12th place at the Open Championship.
Clearly, Rahm’s exploits should be considered absurd, because that’s exactly what they are, but they also hint at the prospect of more rookies winning as the years pass and the average age of a world-class golfer dips.
Schniederjans will expect to go very close before the season finishes and while he wasn’t quite for me in the Honda Classic, I’m willing to chance him here at a slightly bigger price in what looks to me to be a weaker field.
Too many errors cost him the chance to get competitive at the Honda but there were still bursts of quality sufficient enough to suggest that the game remains in shape, and it’s perhaps significant that he now returns to the site of his PGA Tour debut two years ago.
Schniederjans also played this course in the Southern Amateur a couple of times so he’ll know his way around and can take inspiration not only from the winning form of college opponent Thomas lately, but also from the fact that Jordan Spieth kick-started his career here and returned to win the title in a thrilling 2015 renewal.
Our man has spoken of the impact of seeing those two doing what they do, given that he stood shoulder to shoulder with them on the junior circuit, and this strikes me as one of the better opportunities Schiederjans will have this season.
Ball-striking does tend to be the order of the day around this course so Lucas Glover’s continued excellence from tee-to-green earns him a place on the shortlist, while Seung-yul Noh’s form in the St Jude Classic catches the eye and he could leave behind a modest record at this layout if all the pieces come together as they’re threatening to do.
However, I’ll return to a young man who is something of an old favourite in the exceptionally talented Bud Cauley.
I’ve written before about what’s already been an up-and-down career for a player who took a Spieth-like route to the PGA Tour before Spieth himself, so I’ll give you the abridged version this time.
Essentially, Cauley looked to have the world at his feet and went close on a number of occasions straight out of college, but injuries and a loss of confidence then seriously hampered what promised to be an exceptional career.
However, a Web.com Tour win a couple of years ago signalled a return to where he belongs and Cauley went close in last year’s Byron Nelson before threatening to win again at the start of this year, eventually finishing third in the CareerBuilder Challenge.
A return to the east coast since that effort in California is a definite positive and I was on Cauley at a big price when he finished 27th in the Honda last time, when hanging around on the fringes of contention all week.
The hope is he can take another step forward here at Copperhead, where he was an impressive 16th on debut in 2012, towards the start of a rookie campaign which saw him climb to the fringes of the world’s top 50 thanks to a number of impressive weeks.
You can see how close Cauley came to elite level but, still 10 days short of his 27th birthday, time is on his side and this tournament gives him a genuine chance to kick off a week of celebrations with his first PGA Tour win.
As well as that top-20 here when arriving out of form, Cauley has a fourth-place finish in the Arnold Palmer Invitational to his name and having in fact been born in Florida before basing himself in Alabama, this is very much a home game.
The same goes for Morgan Hoffmann, whose (reasonably) nearby residence in Jupiter surely played some part in another place at a massive price in Florida last time out.
Like Cauley, he was once one of the bright young things of US golf and is tempting enough at 200/1, but consistency hasn’t been much of a strong suit in the past and the feeling is that particular ship has sailed.
Some would say that comment applies to Jim Furyk, but I can’t leave him out at 80/1 around this golf course.
Yes, Furyk is now 46 years old and has the US Ryder Cup captaincy to look forward to, but until qualification begins he’ll surely be determined to make the most of his comparatively stress-free existence as a player.
It’s just eight months since he became the first player in history to card a 58 on the PGA Tour, something he did not long after having hit the frame in the US Open, so I’m dead against writing him off just because of some mediocre golf to begin the campaign.
In fact for a number of years now, Furyk has taken a handful of starts to find his stride after a winter break so he’s certainly one to have in mind for some suitable events coming up, especially if he struggles to get competitive in truly elite fields and drifts out of consciousness as a result.
That certainly seems to be the case here, as he’s a huge price despite having managed one sixth-place finish from just five starts this season, and that on a suitable, familiar course in a less-than-outstanding field.
Those factors are in play again here at Copperhead, where he’s made the weekend on every visit bar his 2004 debut, won in 2010, lost a play-off in 2012, and has since finished seventh, 20th and 40th.
Unsurprisingly, he’s called this course one of his favourites and I’ve seen enough in Furyk’s play not just last year but over the last few weeks to believe he can get competitive.
Chris Kirk’s long game looks to have come good at a nice time given that he’s a Georgia man who is not currently in the Masters and it’ll be interesting to see if he can press on and first secure a place first in the WGC-Match Play which is coming up.
Charles Howell III is in a very similar boat at 65th in the world and is playing some lovely golf, but regulars will know the pitfalls of backing him a 40/1 and if you do want CH3 on-side, it’s worth being a little more creative with your approach.
I’ll leave him out altogether in favour of another Georgia man, one who has done us a good turn in the past – Russell Henley.
There’s no 300/1 on offer this week – the price he was when put up for the Honda Classic three years ago – but 80s looks very fair.
Henley has two wins in Florida to his name, the other coming on the Web.com Tour, and much of his best form elsewhere has come at courses which play to his strengths: good driving and, at his best, exceptional putting.
That’s a formula which works anywhere, but especially here and at other reasonably short, tree-lined venues like Waialae, scene of his breakthrough success in the Sony Open.
Henley has also played well at Harbour Town, which Kevin Streelman says is like a flatter version of Copperhead, but it’s his eye-catching recent efforts which are particularly encouraging with a slow start costing him at Phoenix and a poor finish undermining some good work at the Honda.
Fresher than some and still with stacks of potential, Henley can take another step forward as he improves all the time for a complete overhaul of his bag during the off-season, among which a new Titleist ball has him waxing lyrical.
One other point to note with Henley is that he was seventh in the St Jude Classic last season and, as I’ve mentioned before, I really like that as a form pointer.
Among the players to help draw comparisons between these two events is Robert Garrigus, who has to go in at 150/1.
Garrigus famously lost the plot to hand the St Jude Classic to Lee Westwood in 2010, and he’s been placed here at Copperhead on two of his last four visits.
He puts his success here in Florida down to the fact he can go fishing inbetween rounds and with a new putter in the bag that he says he will never consider changing, Garrigus seems to be in a good place to double his career tally.
That first win also came in Florida and more recently he’s caught the eye a number of times, notably when missing a short eagle putt which would’ve put him in the lead on Sunday at the CareerBuilder Challenge, which confirms that an eventual share of 17th doesn’t tell the whole story.
Over the last year he’s really done well to restore his status on the Tour and while perhaps not known for toughing things out on a difficult course like this one, much of his best form had indeed come under demanding conditions.
Finally – and here’s the absurd selection I referred to earlier – I can’t leave out Bryson DeChambeau at 300/1.
Among the many small reasons for expecting improvement from DeChambeau is his form here as an amateur, which includes guiding SMU to victory when he was the only player in a good field to break 70 in both rounds at the course.
Isolated, that’s nowhere near enough to make a case but DeChambeau caught the eye last time, striking the ball exceptionally well at the extremely difficult PGA National only to find all his work undone by one of the worst putting displays you’ll see.
What particularly impressed about his tee-to-green play was the fact that DeChambeau was nursing a nasty cut to his hand in practice, and on the assumption that he’s both recovered and able to bring that ball-striking to Copperhead, he might just have a chance.
Granted, putting is a major concern and I would be very happy to see him stick with a conventional stance this week, something he returned to at Riviera, but I am quite sweet on the idea that having come under attack for comments aimed at the USGA, he might just return to action with a little to prove - especially with youngsters he battled in college making waves.
Whatever the case, I’m willing to chance a player who looked to have the world at his feet when contending at the Masters less than a year ago. His talent has not disappeared and it’s highly significant that DeChambeau won on the Web.com Tour last season despite already having been written off in some quarters.
All the talk about his unique approach to the game shouldn’t hide the fact that he produced an astonishing amateur career in an increasingly competitive environment and, having hit 80% of greens last time and won at this venue before, he’s worth some loose change.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports
Posted at 2145 GMT on 06/03/17.