There were few surprises and not many disappointments on day one of the PGA Championship, where Brendon Todd’s outstanding 65 saw him join Jason Day in a share of the lead.
Recommended bets
3pts Scott Piercy to win his three-ball at 5/6
2pts Dustin Johnson to win his three-ball at 6/4
1pt double Piercy and Johnson at 3.3/1
There were few surprises and not many disappointments on day one of the PGA Championship, where Brendon Todd’s outstanding 65 saw him join Jason Day in a share of the lead.
There had been talk on the eve of the tournament of two kinds of draw bias: the one that I touched upon which suggested those hitting the ball right-to-left might be at an advantage; the other of the weather kind, with strong wind forecast to make life difficult for those teeing off in the afternoon.
As you'd expect, 18 holes weren't enough to answer the first question definitively, though there's a draw-heavy presence on the leaderboard. Martin Kaymer is the obvious exception, the German producing a brilliant 66 and an even better post-round interview, but it was a little disconcerting to see him continue to hit fades off the tee on holes turning significantly the other way.
I would think that as the fairways become faster and therefore smaller targets, Kaymer might be found out, and yet it would be foolish to write off him, Zach Johnson, and any other surprise contender who has shown that they know how to do this.
The weather bias which had been feared by some, hoped for by others, was not as pronounced as expected - a point underlined by Todd's superb display of approach shots and putting. Granted, he was a little way ahead of the others in his wave, but the difference in scoring average come the end of the day was less than a stroke.
There's probably not much to say about the outright betting at this stage - it is as you'd expect it to be - but some may want to consider taking on Justin Rose in the top Englishman market. Out of form coming in, Rose rode a hot putter to a round of 66 and while he may build on that strong platform, he will need to hit the ball a heck of a lot better.
Tommy Fleetwood, who gave away a good round with a clumsy, two-hole run early on in the back-nine, should close the gap today and is 9/2. Paul Casey, who loves playing out on the west coast, is a similar price and just two behind after he too finished poorly, and Tom Lewis is a shot closer. All three are considered and the temptation to dutch Fleetwood and Casey is undermined by the lingering threat of Lewis.
On to the three-balls and the best bet may appeal only to night owls, with SCOTT PIERCY (2242) expected to be the pick of his group for the second day running at 5/6 (William Hill, Betway).
Piercy - who slings everything from right-to-left - ranked ninth in strokes-gained approach on his way to a level-par 70 which ought to have been so much more, as he doubled his final two holes to waste a fine day's work.
There's a slight concern that may play on his mind and he has a long time to wait to tee-off, but such was his superiority over Andrew Putnam and PGA pro Alex Knoll that odds of 5/6 are more than big enough to allow for that risk.
Knoll bogeyed his first two in a round of 77 and is on his way to finishing last or close to it on his debut in the event. As you might expect, he was way down towards the bottom of the ball-striking rankings, leagues away from Piercy, and that shouldn't change today.
Putnam though is the PGA Tour winner who in theory ought to be a threat, and helps hold Piercy's price up in what is surely a match. And yet his tee-to-green performance was by some distance the worst of the touring professionals in this field, only a hot putter keeping his score respectable.
Even then, he was seven behind Piercy with two to play and in the end lost by three. He lacks the selection's power and these ball-striking issues are not restricted to one round of golf in a major. He's been in terrible form for some time, last producing a good tee-to-green display in January, and it's hard to see how he threatens to break par today.
Piercy could win this with a 75 if his playing partners hit the ball as they did in the first round. He should be aiming higher than that and is a confident selection for all that his own form coming here was not strong.
An hour earlier, DUSTIN JOHNSON (2147) can put behind him a frustrating end to an otherwise encouraging first round and account for Jordan Spieth and the aforementioned Rose.
Spieth continues to struggle badly off the tee and was on the range for several hours after an opening 73. He's remains an admirable, exceptional player who can be fancied to eventually figure things out, but his game just doesn't look quite ready for a major and for now he's going to struggle to make the cut.
Perhaps he'll rally like the champion that he is, but this issue with the driver is going to become more of a problem as the course firms up and he can't be expected to do much better than on Thursday.
As mentioned, Rose rode a hot putter himself and has been playing poorly so Johnson, strong throughout the bag, effective on these greens, and having played well now for five rounds running, probably ought to be shorter than the standout 6/4 (Betfair Sportsbook). Anything odds-against looks value and upwards of 3/1 the double the same.
Posted at 0850 BST on 07/08/20
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