PGA Championship: Final-round betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

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1pt Paul Casey to win his two-ball at 11/5

Through 54 holes of the PGA Championship, we have a leaderboard made up of some of the most powerful players in the sport. Dustin Johnson, Cameron Champ, Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, Paul Casey, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood and Jason Day are all T7 or better. Matt Wolff is just a shot outside the top 10. The aim of organisers is to make a fair, exciting test, and that they've done. But, for the third year in succession and possibly even the seventh, it's very difficult to keep up in this tournament if you don't hit it a mile.

Collin Morikawa has managed to do so. He's currently on track for his best putting performance in a still embryonic professional career, which underlines what you have to do if you do not hit the ball over 320 yards on a pretty consistent basis. This is all a fair reflection of the sport as a whole in 2020, and unless Morikawa does it on his first major start as a professional, the next winner of the Wanamaker Trophy will be just like the last few: strong as an ox.

That said, Johnson earned his lead with a sensational putting display. He holed five times from outside 10 feet in the third round and such was his display on the greens than he now leads the field for the week. There's no guarantee he cannot keep it up - he did putt beautifully on his way to victory in the Travelers - but by his own admission, the 11/4 favourite will probably need to hit the ball a little bit better. Should he do so then a second major could well be forthcoming and a strike-rate of more than 50 percent with a 54-hole lead says the price is more than fair.

Leaderboard

-9 Johnson

-8 Scheffler, Champ

-7 Morikawa, Casey, Koepka

-6 Day, Fleetwood, DeChambeau, Rose, Berger, Finau

Johnson's cause is probably helped by the fact that the two closest to him are so inexperienced, for all they're also hugely talented. Champ has won twice in two years on the PGA Tour and that's from just a small number of chances - indeed, he's converted both leads and has never otherwise been closer than two shots behind. This freakish talent, born and raised in California, has something very special about him, but it will nevertheless be impressive if he can take this first opportunity to win a major championship.

Scheffler has been striking the ball beautifully of late for all that the putter has been his chief weapon this week. Like Champ, he's a player who has long been known about, who played well in a major as an amateur - in fact, they were the top two amateurs at the 2017 US Open, Scheffler just edging his young college rival. Just three years on it's a sign of the times that both are here contending for the PGA, but Scheffler is yet to win a PGA Tour title. If victory for Champ would be impressive, for the rookie we should call it staggering.

All of which is to say that this leaderboard is set up for someone to win from off the pace. I would never underestimate Johnson and he's the most likely winner, but coming here he'd carded two rounds of 80 in his previous five, and those ruinous shots are still there. Playing with a potentially twitchy Scheffler, we could see a repeat of Friday and Saturday, as those in front stalled and the top of the leaderboard reshuffled.

Many will comfortably pivot from this point of view to Koepka, two back after a rallying finish and now 5/1, but that price on this leaderboard really doesn't appeal. It's not so much those in front - as mentioned, all three appear somewhat vulnerable to varying degrees - but the quality both around and just behind the two-time defending champion.

Morikawa and Paul Casey, tied with Koepka, are both good enough to win this, as are the six players tied for seventh, and it's just too busy a front page to justify taking the odds available. In fact, to my eye the best value lies with 22/1 chance Jason Day, who was brimming with positivity after a ho-hum 70, which started with a tap-in birdie but ultimately saw him stagnate as others made their moves.

The Australian didn't do much right or much wrong on Saturday, but still leads the approach play stats for the week and might just be a good putting round away from posting a very competitive total. Given that he's putted poorly since making his share in the first round, which in part explains why he's advanced his score only by a stroke, there's some hope required here. And yet Day's strength has always been the putter; it's clear he remains confident with it.

I fail to see why he's a couple of points bigger than Tommy Fleetwood given their respective pre-tournament odds, and the fact Day has been more prolific throughout his career. Still, Fleetwood's closing birdie to get back within three keeps him firmly in the mix and, now away from the glare of the final group, he's not done with. With Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay also in the mix for places, the pre-tournament outright position remains strong for all the prospect of getting the winner diminished on an underwhelming Saturday.

My message would be fairly simple: this is wide-open, and I'm happy with my lot. Those who want a bet for the final round to keep them awake to the early hours are pointed towards Day as the standout value, with Johnson clearly the most likely winner. As for the man I haven't mentioned, DeChambeau, he putted even better than Johnson in round three, gaining five strokes, and I'd be against him.

Finding a bet isn't easy. Victor Perez to be top Frenchman still holds some appeal at 2/1, with Mike Lorenzo Vera likely to struggle again. The gap between them was five at halfway, it's now down to just two, and if Perez can shoot 70 that might be enough.

As for the two-balls, Russell Henley's ball-striking might enable him to outscore Phil Mickelson, but the latter has played quite tidily himself and 5/4 Henley doesn't seem big enough. Instead, and without wishing to get carried away in opposing the player many will expect to win, I'm willing to chance PAUL CASEY to beat Brooks Koepka.

We're talking polar opposites here when it comes to final-round ruthlessness, at least that's how the story is meant to go. But while Casey clearly wouldn't be one for total confidence during the latter stages of any event, he's a 20-time winner around the world and one or two issues with Sundays are probably overplayed.

Anyway, this is more based on the price as I can't have him as a 2/1 chance to produce the lower score here. Casey leads the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green and the return of his caddie, plus a move out to California, has unearthed a return to his best. He's played 51 of the 54 holes in par or better which speaks to how comfortable he is at Harding Park.

Speaking of comfortable, Casey said on Saturday night that this just doesn't feel like a major to him, and if that's a feeling he can retain, it'll help bridge the gap to the man across the tee box, whose performances improve as the pressure dial is turned.

Still, as I wrote yesterday, Koepka looks like he has a bad hole or sequence of holes in him. His sheer will and self-belief helped overcome them in the third round but he's no good-thing to press on and challenge the lead and I think he's far too short in this two-ball.

Stakes are kept to a minimum as a mark of the respect we have to afford the man who is seeking his third straight PGA Championship. He may well go ahead and get it, but this first major in more than a year has served up a wide-open leaderboard and there are a heck of a lot of potential winners as we go into Sunday.

Posted at 0825 BST on 09/08/20

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