US PGA Championship betting tips: Specials, top players and prop bets for this week's golf major
Get Ben Coley's thoughts on Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and the best specials bets for this week's PGA Championship at Southern Hills.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship specials
5pts Robert MacIntyre to be the top Scottish player at 5/6 (General)
3pts Joaquin Niemann to be the top South American player at 13/8 (Unibet)
1.5pts Matt Fitzpatrick to be the top English player at 13/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Tommy Fleetwood to be the top English player at 9/2 (William Hill)
Best bets in the top player markets
My first instinct was to look for a way into the top Korean market, which is without Sungjae Im. De facto favourite Si Woo Kim has an abysmal record in this tournament and while it has no fixed home, that does have to rate a concern, and he's not at his best. That makes KH Lee the default option at 9/4 and he was sorely tempting given how little may be required to win this, but he's missed five cuts in five majors including days after landing the Byron Nelson last year.
Perhaps he'll get it right at the sixth time of asking but with Joohyung Kim difficult to dismiss despite his lack of experience, this looked more complicated the longer I looked whereas the top Scottish betting is nice and straightforward: ROBERT MACINTYRE is entitled to be shorter than 5/6 to beat Russell Knox, a late call-up following Paul Casey's withdrawal.
Pretty much everything bar experience is in MacIntyre's favour here. He's made all eight cuts in majors, faring best at Portrush and Augusta which could both provide decent clues given the short-game test we should get from Southern Hills. He's longer, another advantage at a course set to play in excess of 7,500 yards, and his form this year has more substance. Both times he and Knox have played in the same event, MacIntyre has fared best.
Knox has played in 17 majors, more than twice as many as his young counterpart, but has made fewer cuts – just seven in total. He has made plenty of cuts this year but his two best efforts came under very different circumstances, and more recently his short-game struggles saw him fail to make the weekend in Mexico, just as he had in the Heritage, before a decent 35th last time out.
The fact he didn't make the original field for the PGA underlines the difference in standards between these two – it's world number 79 versus world number 186 – and I expect if MacIntyre extends his flawless streak of cuts made in majors, that may well do. And if he doesn't, there's a good chance he'll outscore Knox over 36 holes anyway.
There are four South Americans in the field and each of the quartet has something to recommend them. In fact, they all made the cut in the Byron Nelson last week, where Sebastian Munoz fared best but Mito Pereira and JOAQUIN NIEMANN were also right in the mix.
Though Niemann produced a disappointing Sunday, that might not be a bad thing in terms of preparing for this versus Munoz missing a good chance to win his second PGA Tour title. And while Pereira may yet emerge as a second major contender from Chile, his friend and compatriot Niemann is a few steps ahead of him for now.
Crucially, Niemann is both the longest of this trio, and comfortably the best around the green so far this season, ranking 11th versus Munoz in 95th and Pereira in 119th. Jhonattan Vegas, who matches Niemann for power, is down in 141st and like Munoz and Pereira, he's had his share of putting issues, too.
Niemann, who is best on bentgrass, is also the most reliable of the four in that department and of course boasts the best form, having won impressively at Riviera. As such he was very much shortlisted having been among my selections for the Masters, where he made an excellent start and picked up valuable experience playing alongside Tiger Woods over the first two rounds.
All of this gives him a good edge over his rivals and while odds-on quotes are on the short side, prices of 5/4 and upwards offer some value. There's a touch of 13/8 around and that's considered extremely good business, with Pereira playing in just his second major, Vegas yet to manage a top-20 finish in 14 tries, and Munoz having to bounce back from a disappointing Sunday and end a run of three major missed cuts in a row.
Finally, there look to be two standout candidates for top Englishman honours and while first and third in the betting, backing both MATT FITZPATRICK and TOMMY FLEETWOOD ought to prove worthwhile.
Fleetwood is covered in my outright preview, while Fitzpatrick has put the pieces in place for a huge summer. To come he has a return to the scene of his US Amateur win next month's US Open, plus an Open Championship at St Andrews, but he can be a factor here too, having produced seven top-20 finishes in nine starts already this year.
Inside the top five in scrambling in four of his last six starts, an excellent mid-iron player and one of the best putters in the field, there aren't really any weaknesses to his game. He and Fleetwood were both T14 at the Masters where Danny Willett put his Augusta smarts to use to edge them out by a shot, but there are few compelling rivals among their fellow English challengers this time.
Paul Casey is out injured, Lee Westwood remains in the spotlight but out of form, Ian Poulter has been quiet all spring, Sam Horsfield has to go again after a win last week and subsequent journey over to the US, Laurie Canter's short-game is a worry and so is Richard Bland's lack of length. That leaves Justin Rose as a viable threat along with Tyrrell Hatton, but I can see the latter growing frustrated with this place and Rose is not the player he was.
Dutching the two provides a rock-solid 11/10 chance, but I'll weight stakes towards Fitzpatrick, knowing that if Fleetwood does win this market we'll likely have a nice each-way payout coming.
How will Rory McIlroy fare?
Perhaps out of fear, I didn't really give Rory McIlroy the attention he merits in my outright preview. This does look a good chance for him to continue the form he's shown lately, finishing second at Augusta and then fifth last time out at the Wells Fargo, both times from a long way back at halfway.
Slow starts have become a problem for McIlroy in majors, whereas fast starts were once his forte, and if and when his next major win does come I expect it'll be when he's been in the firing line throughout. He's a prime candidate for a wire-to-wire win at his best and that's one way to play him at 125/1, but again he will have to buck his own recent trend having played his way out of contention very quickly.
At the time of writing, a Thursday morning start looks potentially beneficial and if McIlroy gets one, he might be worth chancing to return to his explosive best out of the gates. Last time out he led the field in greens hit, which has become a bit of a problem area in recent years, and while soft conditions helped, he might also meet Southern Hills at its most tame. With a sharp short-game long one of his understated strengths, a big week is anticipated whether he gets lucky with the draw or not.
Granted a good set of tee-times I'd like to put him up for the first-round lead and win double, but odds of 60/1 are pretty terrible. McIlroy is 28/1 to lead after round one, and the prices about the double suggest he'd then be evens to win the tournament. He might be, of course, but that sort of price after day one of a major requires a sizeable lead and several big names misfiring. It's a no-brainer to play the round one leader market and reinvest if hitting the jackpot, with the added benefit of being able to stick should outright odds appear too short.
In a nutshell, McIlroy is a player I don't want to take on. At evens, he appeals to some degree to be the best Irish player, and his presence is enough to talk me out of a bet on MacIntyre in the top GB & Ireland market at around 20/1. MacIntyre won it at the Open last summer and was second at Augusta earlier in 2021, but McIlroy might just set the bar too high, just as he did in the Masters last month.
What are the best tournament match bets?
I tend not to advise bets in these markets, for one reason: they vary from bookmaker to bookmaker, and recommending wagers that a large number of readers might not have access to doesn't make much sense. By this I mean that your preferred choice of layer may price up Will Zalatoris v Shane Lowry, where another pits Lowry against Hideki Matsuyama, and so on.
This also means Oddschecker struggles to provide the information that makes accessing the best odds easier but in the hope it might be useful to someone, I will say that I'm surprise Paddy Power make Jordan Spieth 11/10 to beat Xander Schauffele. Spieth is shorter in the outright market with good reason and it's tempting to suggest this is a palpable error, but more likely is compilers have taken the view that Schauffele is a more reliable head-to-head proposition regardless of relative win prospects.
Similarly, Patrick Cantlay is very short with the same firm at 8/15 to beat Dustin Johnson. Granted, Johnson's form over the past year has been below the levels we've come to expect, whereas Cantlay has been one of the standout players in the sport. Cantlay was shortlisted and Johnson was not for this very reason. However, the favourite here has a very poor record in majors whereas Johnson's is very good, and they should be closer in the betting. Johnson at 11/8 has to be a value play just as Spieth is.
While shopping around, other players to look out for are Max Homa and Jason Day, both of whom I'd be happy to oppose in general terms. Homa's record in majors is very poor and until he's proven otherwise he'll remain one to take on, while Day's performance in the Wells Fargo wasn't enough to merit his position in the market. I'm surprised for instance that some firms have him shorter than Marc Leishman and Adam Scott in their top Australian lists, though the strength of favourite Cameron Smith and potential among youngsters Min Woo Lee and Cam Davis makes opposing Day a little more complicated than that.
And finally, what about Tiger Woods?
Ahead of the Masters, I was inclined not to take a firm view on Woods. It's best to avoid what amounts to guesswork, and it's equally wise not to underestimate the greatest player of all time. Woods of course went on to outperform many expectations with a bright start before fading as the physical demands of Augusta took their toll on his ailing body.
Forced to make a prediction for this week, it'd follow a similar path – a strong start which peters out. Reports suggest he's picked up swing speed and power, his health having improved, and while Southern Hills is a demanding walk, it's not Augusta. Put all this together and it's easy to envisage him playing better for longer, even if 72 holes is asking too much.
Then again, Woods is able to act on instinct around Augusta, those years of experience worth several shots to him. He might have won brilliantly here in 2007, but that's 15 years ago, the course has changed fundamentally, and there's just no comparison with the levels of comfort he has in the Masters, where making the cut is easier than it is most weeks.
Here, there's a better case for backing him to miss the cut at odds against. But that would fall into the trap of opposing someone who is capable of extraordinary things, and we've the luxury of choice. There are a hundred and more players we can take a view on in the PGA Championship, and do so with plenty of evidence and little guesswork. There's one in particular we don't need to take a firm stance on, and it's Tiger Woods.
Posted at 1345 BST on 17/05/22
More PGA Championship content
- Ben Coley's outright betting preview
- PGA Championship: The big questions
- PGA Championship specials
- PGA Championship longshots
- Southern Hills hole-by-hole guide
- Betfair... Only Bettor: US PGA podcast
- Spieth sets sights on career grand slam
- Tiger Woods will 'expect a lot more'
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