US Open golf betting tips: Special bets and side markets for major at Torrey Pines
Golf expert Ben Coley unearthed a 28/1 winner with his specials preview at last month's PGA, and he has several selections for the US Open.
Golf betting tips: US Open specials
4pts Adam Scott top Australian at 11/4 (BoyleSports)
3.5pts Marc Leishman top Australian at 100/30 (Unibet)
2pts Edoardo Molinari top Italian at 5/2 (General)
1pt Taylor Pendrith top Canadian at 13/2 (General)
1pt Jordan Smith to finish in the top 20 at 14/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Chan Kim top American at 300/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/4 1,2,3,4)
Sky Bet odds - 11 places outright | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Top Australian
Of the myriad options in the specials markets I can find no better bet than dutching ADAM SCOTT and MARC LEISHMAN to be the top Australian player.
Even with the early 3/1 on Scott having been taken, 11/4 each of these two Torrey Pines specialists makes for a shade bigger than 17/20 combined, and in what I consider to be a three-way market, that looks a steal. There's even some 100/30 around for Leishman, which makes for just about bang-on an even-money chance.
In essence, we're taking on Cameron Smith. Though he has a sneaky-good record at Torrey Pines, it's not as strong as that of Leishman, a former champion, nor Scott, who was runner-up in 2019 and 10th on his return in January.
Smith has also struggled with his long-game lately, missing the cut at the Memorial having been 59th at the PGA Championship. Though the former was enough to finish ahead of Scott and Leishman, last time out he was behind them and at a long, brutal course like this one, I don't think he can compete unless his ball-striking improves.
Leishman, who was the top Australian at the Masters, drove the ball well last time and will relish a return to the South Course, where he won the Farmers at the expense of Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy in 2020. As for Scott, he was talking a determined game ahead of the Memorial, where he was just outside the top 10, and his experience playing a US Open here in 2008 will help.
Of the two I would narrowly favour Scott, but let's not complicate things. Take anything close to evens the pair and hope to capitalise on what I expect will be a tough week for Smith, with only Matt Jones considered a realistic threat among the other four Australian players.
Top Italian
Three Italians are in the field this week and perhaps Francesco Molinari will remind us all of his class. However, at 5/6 in places and no bigger than 5/4, he looks short enough and will do well to get the better of his brother, EDOARDO MOLINARI.
Right now, nobody on the European Tour is hitting it better than the elder brother, who has ranked first, second and fourth in strokes-gained tee-to-green across his latest four starts. Though continuing to struggle on the greens, he is playing as well as he ever has in all other departments.
A former winner of the US Amateur who has always thrived on difficult courses, Molinari has made the cut in both professional US Open appearances, and while handicapped by a lack of distance, he can do enough to again make the weekend.
I would be less sure of Francesco's game right now, given that he's played just four times since February, most recently six weeks ago, and has three missed cuts and a share of 52nd to show for his efforts. That sets alarm bells ringing and the only cut he's made was at Augusta, where a good chunk of the field is deadwood. He's seriously lacking in match practice.
The third Italian is Guido Migliozzi, and it's tempting to follow the Aussie method and back both. However, in-form Migliozzi is playing in his first major championship and the nous of Molinari, who will surely be lodging with his younger brother for the week, is preferred at a bigger price.
Top Canadian
Many will consider Corey Conners another strong favourite to be the pick of four Canadians. He's won this market in each of the last three majors, contending at some stage in two of them, and this fine ball-striker has been one of the most consistently impressive performers all season.
It's hard to find fault with Conners at 8/13, but since the Heritage his results haven't been quite so impressive and at the odds, TAYLOR PENDRITH represents a sporting wager against him.
Pendrith is a Korn Ferry Tour member who has a class divide to cross, but he's one of if not the biggest hitter on that circuit, and power is usually vital in a US Open. Here at the South Course, which can stretch close to 7,800 yards, it should be just as good a pointer as it was at Winged Foot, where he was by far the pick of the Canadians in 23rd.
His form coming in is similar, with a final-round 65 a fortnight ago setting him up nicely for another go, and at 13/2 he's the value play in a field of four, with neither Mackenzie Hughes nor Adam Hadwin expected to feature.
Top American
Having put up three Americans in my outright preview, I had been hoping to find another way to support CHAN KIM, but he's halved in price for a top-10 or top-20 finish, and not enough firms have priced up the top-40 market, for which he would be worth a bet at around the 5/1 mark.
Instead then I will roll the dice and hope he can do as he did at Birkdale in 2017, and be one of the top four Americans, for which you can get 300/1 and four places with Paddy Power and Betfair. Other firms go 250/1 but with an extra place, which is equally tempting.
The case for Kim is that he's a talented player who is trying to work his way back home. For now, he's out on the Japan Golf Tour, where he's ranked as the biggest hitter in three of the last five seasons and currently sits second. He's also a five-time winner out there, four of those victories coming under tough conditions, one of them in one-over.
More recently, he was an impressive 23rd at the PGA Championship, having been 35th in the WGC won by Collin Morikawa. The latter is no more than respectable, but when you consider Kim hadn't played tour-level tournament golf for three months, it can be upgraded.
Both those performances, and his dominant victory in a US Open qualifier two weeks ago, tell us he's at the top of his game, and having battled injuries he may now be ready to fulfil the promise he showed as an Arizona State amateur more than a decade ago.
Already, he's been 11th and 27th from just a handful of major appearances, and Torrey Pines may be even more suitable. He really could surprise a few and while he'll need to at least contend to win the top American market, I wouldn't totally rule that out.
Top-20 finish
Finally, JORDAN SMITH can exceed expectations and threaten top Englishman honours at 25/1 and bigger, but a better bet is to support him for a top-20 finish at 14/1.
Smith has been the best driver on the European Tour across his last two starts, a return to what we once expected of him, and the 28-year-old remains a short-game away from being one of the best players on the circuit.
There have been encouraging signs there, too, and it's only taken decent putting for him to turn some mediocre results into a run of 17-3-11 over the last month.
Four years ago, he won the European Open, then went over to the PGA Championship and finished ninth on a long, tough course which really suited him. This time he arrives having been 11th in a 54-hole renewal of the same event, and he could find Torrey Pines equally to his liking.
Posted at 1115 BST on 15/06/21
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