US Open betting tips: Specials, top players and prop bets for this week's golf major
Golf expert Ben Coley believes we may well see a hole-in-one or two at this week's US Open, where he has a range of specials tips.
Golf betting tips: US Open specials
1pt David Lingmerth to be the top Swedish player at 4/1 (General)
3pts Viktor Hovland to be the top Scandinavian player at evens (bet365)
0.5pt Lingmerth to be the top Scandinavian player at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts e.w. Adam Scott to be the top Australian player at 9/2 (Paddy Power 1/4 1,2)
0.5pt at least one hole-in-one in the first round at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt at least one hole-in-one in the second round at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Best bets in the top player markets
Whenever assessing specials markets, finding weakness can be as if not more important than finding strength. That was the case at the US PGA, where backing Robert MacIntyre to be the top Scot was largely to do with the idea that Russell Knox might struggle, and it's certainly an important part of the argument for DAVID LINGMERTH as the top Swede.
Favourite here is Alex Noren and while he's understandably been on the drift, he still looks short at around evens. Undoubtedly the class act among these four players, the problem is he has a poor record in the US Open, and that makes sense as he often struggles off the tee. Thereafter he can do everything well, but I suspect Brookline will help separate bad drivers from good, and he generally falls into the former category.
With five missed cuts in eight US Open starts, Noren's record suggests the winner of this market might only need to have made the weekend. That's a pretty low bar, and it's something Lingmerth has done on all three of his appearances in this championship. Yes, they were all some time ago (2013-2017) and he was a better player than he is today, but there have been clear signs of a reemergence this year with his approach play in particular catching the eye.
Last week's missed cut was by a single stroke in Canada whereas Noren has to fly over from Sweden, where he was tournament favourite but never really featured. As such I'm happy to take Lingmerth at around the 4/1 mark, with Sebastian Soderberg playing in just his second major and also flying across having been poor in the Scandinavian Mixed, and Jonas Blixt's long-game likely to be found out in this company and on this course.
A final factor potentially in Lingmerth's favour against the latter pair is that he has an early tee-time for Thursday, and right now that looks a good draw. I suspect either way he'll win this market if he beats Noren, and at the odds that's a chance worth taking. The favourite isn't to be feared.
For all these reasons, Lingmerth works as a nice saver behind a bet on VIKTOR HOVLAND in the top Scandinavian market.
This one concerns the same four players plus Hovland and Thorbjorn Olesen, and the latter's driving issues are enough for me to believe he'll have a hard time making the weekend. Hovland has done that in every major start except for when suffering a freak eye injury in last year's US Open, and his form at Pebble Beach (12th) and Winged Foot (13th) in previous renewals is really encouraging.
Thick rough around the greens will likely help this shaky chipper so he was very much shortlisted for an outright bet. There's just enough of a concern that his long-game hasn't fired in his last couple of starts, but even his B-game should account for most of these. At evens, he looks a very strong favourite, and 12/1 about Lingmerth has to be worth cover.
Taking on Cameron Smith in the top Aussie market isn't something anyone should do lightly, but he's very short now and that's despite some negatives: the way he hit the ball in the Memorial and the way he began the Canadian Open, where he salvaged an unspectacular 48th. Yes, he's hit the ball brilliantly in both majors and has been one of the stars of the season, but post-Augusta form of MC-21-13-13-48 isn't exactly sparkling.
At 10/11 in places he just looks short, especially with a US Open record of 4-59-MC-72-38-MC. The one bright spot came at Chambers Bay, a totally different test to Brookline and where his occasional big misses off the tee went unpunished. Here, they risk leading him to some big numbers, the like of which he's certainly prone to.
With Marc Leishman struggling and on record as no big fan of USGA set-ups, Lucas Herbert's long-game poor and Min Woo Lee largely having struggled of late, ADAM SCOTT looks a knocking each-way bet against the favourite.
Scott has beaten Smith in three of their five corresponding US Opens, including last year's, and leads Leishman 6-3 in the event. You might think some of this would be dated form but that's not the case, as Scott has figured out this tournament late in his career, beating Leishman in the last three renewals.
It would be fair to say he hasn't been at his best lately and 48-MC is uninspiring major form for the year so far, but Scott's approach play was exceptional last time, the strongest it's been for years. If he can tidy up around the greens he can comfortably progress to the weekend, by which time this top Australian market may not have many runners left.
Will there be a hole-in-one?
Finally, I do think there's genuine mileage in the hole-in-one markets, which aren't usually of any real appeal.
The reason for this is that all four are shorter than we often expected in a US Open, and the 11th hole in particular is a welcome change from brutal, 250-yard holes which for too long have been a staple of this championship.
At 131 yards and steeply downhill, the 11th is less than a full wedge for the pros and brings to mind the seventh at Pebble Beach. In fact, the quartet are more Pebble Beach than Torrey Pines and in six US Opens at the former, a shorter US Open course with small greens, there has been at least one ace in five of them, with eight in total.
There wasn't a single hole-in-one here in 1988 but remember the 11th didn't feature back then, and it looks to me like a hole where we'll see several shots threaten. Were this Augusta we might get a price on a hole-in-one at the 11th specifically, but as mentioned all four of the par-threes are in play, and there's potential at one or two par-fours depending on set-up, however unlikely that may be.
Backing a hole-in-one at 5/6 with Sky Bet is the most sensible way to go about things, but the same firm offers 9/2 about day one and the same price about day two. This means we get 1,248 shots to the par-threes and if there's a hole-in-one among them, we'll be paid out at an effective 7/4, with potential for the full 9/2 payout if there's one on each day. I'd rather do that, on balance, than include the weekend and far fewer shots, but this is small-stakes advice as plenty of guesswork is involved.
Posted at 1355 BST on 14/06/22
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