US Open betting preview: Golf betting tips and analysis
Matt Cooper, Martin Mathews, Dave Tindall and Ben Coley pick out their best bets from the US Open sub-markets.
Billy Horschel to finish in the top 10
Matt Cooper is a long-time Sporting Life contributor who previews the women's majors for the website and provides tips for multiple tours for betting.betfair.com and others.
Since finishing tied fourth in his first major championship as a professional (the 2013 US Open at Merion), BILLY HORSCHEL has been slightly hapless in the tournaments that define a golfer’s career, never once adding to his top-10 tally in another 32 tries. And yet …
And yet in the last two years he has finished first and second in World Golf Championship events, he won the BMW PGA Championship last autumn, he was second in the major-like Arnold Palmer Invitational this spring, he won the Memorial Tournament last time out, and he is ranked 11th in the world rankings (and has been top 30 for the last 18 months).
If he’s ever going to land another top 10 why not this week? It’s purely coincidental, but if Matt Fitzpatrick can do it last month off a very, very similar track record why not Billy? The clincher is that some books go as low as 5/2 and others 5/1. The latter it is.
Hideki Matsuyama to be the top Japanese player
Martin Mathews writes a regular PGA Tour tipping column on his own website, provides in-play event previews for Sporting Life, and is a regular Paddy Power contributor.
Backing odds-on shots in golf is of course a risky business but I feel HIDEKI MATSUYAMA can’t be ignored to come out on top of his fellow countrymen.
There is not too much really to say about Matsuyama here that we don’t already know. He has made every cut in the majors played on US soil since this event in 2016, bagging the Masters on the way, and although hampered by injury at times this year there has been plenty of good stuff since his two wins in the earlier part of the season.
The question to address here then is what competition is he up against in this market?
Well with the better known name to PGA Tour followers, Satoshi Kodaira, struggling for form of late the layers make Rikuyo Hoshino second favourite over Keita Nakajima. Both are talented players however current world number one amateur Nakajima you would think has the greater potential. Ultimately though this is a huge step up for him at this stage of his career with his only major appearance resulting in a missed cut at Augusta.
Hoshino did post a solid 26th in this event last year, however this will be a very different type of test to the one that faced the players at Torrey Pines, one which should suit Matsuyama’s trademark long-game. With the other two runners surely out of their depth another made cut for the 2021 Masters champion will probably be good enough.
Tony Finau to finish in the top 10
Former Sky Sports Golf editor Dave Tindall is a regular contributor to betting.betfair.com and various other publications.
Even in his somewhat underwhelming early 2022 form, TONY FINAU would have seemed a viable bet for a top 10 at this price. Why? He's played in 24 major championships and delivered a top 10 in 42% of them.
In his current form, he's a no-brainer to add another. Finau comes in off an excellent second place in the Canadian Open where he slugged it out with Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas down the stretch. That secured a third top five in his last five starts.
His Total Driving numbers have been strong for a while which bodes well for a US Open and he has the tournament's perfect combination of power and touch to be a factor again. Look to Finau to secure a third top 10 from his last five US Opens.
David Lingmerth to be the top Swedish player
Ben Coley is Sporting Life's deputy editor and long-serving golf columnist and tipster.
Whenever assessing specials markets, finding weakness can be as if not more important than finding strength. That was the case at the US PGA, where backing Robert MacIntyre to be the top Scot was largely to do with the idea that Russell Knox might struggle, and it's certainly an important part of the argument for DAVID LINGMERTH as the top Swede.
Favourite here is Alex Noren and while he's understandably been on the drift, he still looks short at around evens. Undoubtedly the class act among these four players, the problem is he has a poor record in the US Open, and that makes sense as he often struggles off the tee. Thereafter he can do everything well, but I suspect Brookline will help separate bad drivers from good, and he generally falls into the former category.
With five missed cuts in eight US Open starts, Noren's record suggests the winner of this market might only need to have made the weekend. That's a pretty low bar, and it's something Lingmerth has done on all three of his appearances in this championship. Yes, they were all some time ago (2013-2017) and he was a better player than he is today, but there have been clear signs of a reemergence this year with his approach play in particular catching the eye.
Last week's missed cut was by a single stroke in Canada whereas Noren has to fly over from Sweden, where he was tournament favourite but never really featured. As such I'm happy to take Lingmerth at around the 4/1 mark, with Sebastian Soderberg playing in just his second major and also flying across having been poor in the Scandinavian Mixed, and Jonas Blixt's long-game likely to be found out in this company and on this course.
A final factor potentially in Lingmerth's favour against the latter pair is that he has an early tee-time for Thursday, and right now that looks a good draw. I suspect either way he'll win this market if he beats Noren, and at the odds that's a chance worth taking. The favourite isn't to be feared.
Posted at 1600 BST on 14/06/22
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