Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for The Northern Trust
The FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this week and Ben Coley is expecting big things of two world-class players in The Northern Trust.
Golf betting tips: The Northern Trust
3pts e.w. Rory McIlroy at 22/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Justin Thomas at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Webb Simpson at 35/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
The Northern Trust returns to Liberty National as the battle begins for however much they now give to the winner of the FedEx Cup. Yes, that's right: the end of the AON Risk-Reward Challenge was not the end of the season, folks, and nor was the conclusion of the Comcast top 10. No no no, there is proper, meaningful golf to come over the next three weeks, or at least two of them before we're back at East Lake being silly.
It all begins at a course with spectacular views of the Manhattan skyline and Lady Liberty herself, and was therefore a fitting location for Patrick Reed to triumph in 2019. The self-styled Captain America grittily overcame Jon Rahm, Abraham Ancer and Harold Varner in a renewal which demonstrated that conditions can play a big part here, at an exposed layout built on an old refuse site, one very different to TPC Boston where last year Scottie Scheffler fired in a breathless 59 before Dustin Johnson won by a million.
Low-scoring is still on the agenda at what's a tougher course, with Troy Merritt having carded a 62 two years ago and Johnson himself a single shot more. But whatever happens over the first two days or so, during which the reach of Tropical Storm Fred may mean there are soft targets to aim at, Liberty National ought to begin to show teeth over the weekend and demand something from each aspect of a player's game. It is certainly no pushover.
As for what it takes to win here, that's not easy to answer. Reed is known more for what he does on and around the greens than before that, although he did drive the ball especially well and Ancer, Varner and Rahm also thrive in that area. Rewind to 2013, when Adam Scott beat Gary Woodland, Graham DeLaet, Justin Rose and Tiger Woods, and strong driving again provided the platform for each of these to shine, even the often errant Woods.
Then we have 2009, when Heath Slocum beat three major winners plus Steve Stricker, to prove once again that just about anything goes. Drawing lines from Slocum to Scott or Reed is next to impossible and it's best to accept that strange things can happen anywhere, not least on a new course which still hadn't convinced everyone and required more work in the aftermath.
One thing we can be sure of is FedEx Cup chatter throughout, and in theory the removal of one of four Playoff events makes this even more of a free roll for those down the rankings. To get from 125th to the cut-off for next week, which is 70th, requires an extraordinary performance from a generally low-ranked player, but professional golfers tend to try and do their thing and see where they are. I'm not sure we can expect a change in mindset, although someone like Chesson Hadley, in here after a final-round 62 and a three-putt from Justin Rose, is entitled to feel free of a certain weight.
Who is the best bet in The Northern Trust?
Typically though, Playoff events go to the best players in the sport, and with conditions as they are and the market as it is, my two among them are RORY MCILROY and JUSTIN THOMAS.
Before we get to why McIlroy, let's address the massive elephant in the room. He was selected on multiple occasions earlier this year and, generally, never raised a leg. There were signs of promise in 13th in Phoenix and sixth at the Concession, plus 10th in the Arnold Palmer, but persistent faith was an expensive exercise, made worse by his victory at a big price in the Wells Fargo.
That's behind us and my focus is on two things: the way he played at Southwind, and the way he spoke at Southwind. Both suggest he could do what he's done before and come alive just after major season has come to an end, making a mediocre season suddenly look better than it felt at any point.
That's what happened in 2016, when he'd never threatened in the four majors, was beginning to fall in the world rankings, then won two of the then four Playoff events and with them scooped the FedEx Cup. It's even kind of what happpened in 2019, when the heartache of Portrush was still burning as he won the TOUR Championship against a pre-tournament handicap.
Altogether, McIlroy has won five of these tournaments and he's absolutely primed for another, having been the best ball-striker in the field in the WGC-St Jude Invitational. It wasn't close, either: he gained 12.35 strokes with his tee shots and approaches, and next was Daniel Berger on 10.5, with Hideki Matsuyama another half a shot off that total.
Ultimately undone by a slow start having suffered the disappointment of missing out on a medal at Tokyo just days earlier, McIlroy was at his best for the final 54 holes of that event, producing golf we've not seen from him since 2019, when he won four times. He got better every day and by the end of it not only did the numbers tell us that this was his best ball-striking in more than two years, but what he said helped to explain it.
Since a high-profile association with coach Pete Cowen began, McIlroy has talked about how he's going to try and hit a fade, just like so many of the world's best players do. It was always a risk, given that his high, swooping draws have made him the best driver in the sport over the last decade. At Southwind, where for the first time in a long time he said 'I'm playing really well' and meant it, McIlroy revealed that he's abandoned the experiment.
Going back to what he does best could ignite the world number 15, who was sixth here at Liberty National two years ago but, significantly, turned up talking about how uncomfortable he felt with his swing having suffered another letdown in the WGC. This time he arrives buoyed by his best long-game display in recent memory, better than he played when victorious at Quail Hollow, better than anything he did in 2020.
Crucially, that move to a draw saw him rank second in fairways, which is rare, and he's always been a player who draws great confidence from sending those missiles down the right side of the fairway and seeing them move back to their intended target. I will be disappointed if a big month for him doesn't begin here in New Jersey and the market really hasn't responded at all to what many of us saw last time out.
Thomas can build on Southwind
As for Thomas, a strong finish to 2021 would also be somewhat fitting for the other elite player who continues to frustrate both fans and himself in major championships.
Since winning the PGA in 2017, Thomas has flirted with the lead at Augusta but generally been well below his best at precisely the wrong time, and this season has been a continuation of that trend only with added drama and frustration. It's been about as unsatisfactory as it could've been for someone who still won The PLAYERS.
But as with McIlroy, the key element of Thomas's game returned in his latest start, yet because he continued to putt poorly and did not threaten the top of the leaderboard, the market suggests there are no more reasons to be positive.
In fact there are. He ranked fourth in strokes-gained approach at Southwind, his best since the first week of May. Two of his four rounds were of an exceptional standard, the other two serviceable, and after a bad start off the tee his driving got better and ended in positive numbers too.
Throughout his career, Thomas has on several occasions seen the rest of his game fall into place as confidence in his approach work returns. That's what happened from this event to the next when he won at Medinah in 2019, and it's what happened when he followed second in strokes-gained approach at the Concession earlier this year with that stunning weekend for the title at Sawgrass.
Rewind further and he'd been fifth in approaches before winning the PGA Championship, as he had at a lower level in the Safeway Open before landing the CIMB Classic. It's very hard for him to win if his irons aren't hot, but when they come back to form after a fallow period, suddenly he's capable of clicking through the bag and winning an event like this at a nice price.
Like McIlroy, he played well here in 2019, hamstrung by the putter in finishing 12th, and I suspect success will depend on whether he can turn in a positive number on the greens. On that we'll have to take our chances, but he putted better than average in the Olympics, and in the Scottish Open, and at Torrey Pines in the US Open before that.
Throughout this run of tournaments, his key weapon simply did not fire. Yet following signs of progress in Tokyo things came together at Southwind, and any kind of improvement on that performance puts him in the picture as he looks to begin his bid for a second FedEx Cup with an overdue second win in 2021.
Ryder Cup response from Simpson?
After Kevin Kisner made a claim of sorts for Ryder Cup inclusion, a response from the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, Tony Finau or Scottie Scheffler would not be a surprise, but WEBB SIMPSON is also on the list of wildcard candidates and rates the pick of them here.
There's definitely room for shorter hitters given the success of Slocum, Ancer and others to have threatened, who by the way include Ian Poulter, himself looking towards Whistling Straits. As far as Simpson goes, he's played well on all three visits, with three top-20 finishes, so no wonder he said "Liberty's a course I really love" last week.
The reason for that, he says, is the contoured greens and their shaved run-offs, which Poulter has also likened to the sort of courses both of them prefer, and it was therefore hard not to sit up and take note of Simpson's performance at the Wyndham Championship last week.
Yes, it's his home event, on an ideal course, and he always plays well there. But Simpson produced his career-best strokes-gained approach figures and not because of a freak round, rather because of sustained brilliance with his irons. Unfortunately for him and those who backed the favourite, he made two very costly mistakes and his usually reliable short-game went missing.
After a summer lull, seventh place last week came on the back of 19th in the Open and 15th at Southwind, and he might be one who has timed things to perfection with all three Playoff courses seemingly suitable.
"I feel like I threw away more shots this week than I've thrown away all season combined," he confessed on Sunday. "I am disappointed in that regard, but to feel that way, looks like I'm going to lose by one or two, is also a positive going into the Playoffs."
In the mix early on every time he's played here, and in the final group entering round three on his first two visits, Simpson looks as fond of the course as anyone and victory may well help him to achieve his main goal for the season.
Youngster ready for breakout win
Poulter looks just a little short but could be worth considering as the fourth of six in the betting for the top Englishman. Similarly, expect Shane Lowry to continue to play well, and had it not been for a calm but occasionally wet forecast, both these Ryder Cup hopefuls may well have been included.
Jason Day hinted that he's improving prior to a forgivable missed cut in the Open and is of interest at 100/1, while of those at massive odds I did consider Matt Kuchar, who scraped through and has some form here. You only have to go back to the spring for hints that he was capable of winning a good tournament and the 250/1 beside his name has to be worth a second glance at a course where accuracy does count.
My final selection however is JOAQUIN NIEMANN, in anticipation of a high-class leaderboard.
The Chilean has done everything but win this year, losing two play-offs, and it would not be a surprise were his second PGA Tour win to come in a high-class event at some stage in the near future.
He's 12th for the season off the tee, which was very much the key category in 2019, but above all else he's always played well in the northern and northeastern states, primarily because he seems to improve a little for bentgrass greens.
Niemann appears to be in similar form now to when closing with a round of 66 on his debut at the course for 30th place in 2019, and with that plus two more years on the PGA Tour behind him, and a run of strong finishes including 17th at Southwind and 10th in the Olympics before that, he looks set to go well.
Posted at 2100 BST on 16/08/21
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