PGA Tour: The Northern Trust betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

3pts e.w. Jason Day at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Adam Scott at 45/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Tyrrell Hatton at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Jordan Spieth at 80/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Louis Oosthuizen at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

TPC Boston returns to the schedule as the FedEx Cup Playoffs get under way, this extraordinary season just three weeks from reaching its conclusion. Once home of the Deutsche Bank Championship (now Dell Technologies), Boston this time takes its turn in kicking things off with The Northern Trust, a nomadic tournament which tours New York, New Jersey and now Massachusetts and yet has been consistent in throwing up a high-class champion, at least since Heath Slocum caused a shock in 2009.

Since the PGA Tour returned in June, fields have been so strong that it's been hard for anyone outside the game's elite to get a look in. Exceptions to this rule have come only when the standard has dipped slightly, such as in the Wyndham Championship and 3M Open or else the opposite-field Barracuda; otherwise, only the bang in-form Daniel Berger, now 18th in the world, has managed to gatecrash the party to some degree, and plenty will have seen that coming.

As all of the sport's best players return for a tournament whose last three champions are currently numbers two, three and eight in the rankings, it's likely this trend continues. Those men are Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau, and when you throw in Henrik Stenson and Rickie Fowler, six of the last seven winners here arrived inside the world's top 12. That's pretty unequivocal, and it may well be that a surprise winner here is more Berger than Jim Herman, who defied odds of 500/1 to land the Wyndham on Sunday.

The Deutsche Bank was always a popular tournament when held here, but not always because of the course. Gil Hanse's reworking of this Arnold Palmer design caused a stir in 2012, when the affable Luke Donald mistakenly posted criticism on twitter. Then, five years later, changes to the 12th and 13th holes provoked anger from big-hitters who didn't like having their advantage neutered, to the extent that eventual champion Justin Thomas chose to play down the 13th fairway when teeing off at the 12th more than once.

Much of this can be put down to cosseted professionals who sometimes resent having their radars interfered with, and Hanse deserves credit for making this TPC layout more demanding with some fairly significant changes, particularly to the risk-reward 18th. Throughout the early part of the last decade scoring here was extremely low, winning scores reaching 20- and 22-under, the latter twice. Since 2014, 15-under would've won every renewal, Thomas and DeChambeau edging beyond it to triumph by convincing margins.

That being said, a statistical trend which ran through those low-scoring years remains strong even now, and that is towards players who make a heck of a lot of birdies and eagles. The season-long birdie-or-better rankings of winners here read 7-1-2-13-38-19-1-1-6-7, those ten covering every TPC Boston champion since Steve Stricker in 2009, including surprises like Charley Hoffman (ranked sixth) and Chris Kirk (38th). Seven of the 10 coming from the very top end of that particular statistical chart is a striking number, and it bodes well for DeChambeau and Webb Simpson, both former winners here.

Both are respected, for all that Simpson hasn't threatened to double-up since his fortuitous 2011 success, but at fourth in this year's birdie-or-better stats I'm drawn to the chances of TYRRELL HATTON.

A winner at Palmer's Bay Hill earlier in the year, Hatton has taken his game to new levels since a slightly fortunate victory of his own on the European Tour last November. Returning in 2020 following minor wrist surgery which did not interrupt his progress whatsoever, he's bridged the gap from European to PGA Tour winner and was awfully impressive when defying tough conditions in Florida.

Sixth in Mexico before that and placed on his next two starts, either side of the suspension, he's achieved plenty on a schedule which has been much lighter than most, and it may well be that he has some form of freshness edge as a busy summer reaches its climax. That theory will be tested throughout all three events in the Playoffs as he looks to have done enough already to make it to East Lake for the first time.

Though defying the wind in the Arnold Palmer showed us how far he's come, Hatton remains at his best when stacking up birdies is the primary requirement and that may be why he took to Boston on his sole previous visit. Second through 36 and 54 holes, he struggled on Sunday but can be forgiven that; he's a much more polished operator now, as he showed when winning his first US title and when shooting a final-round 66 to make Simpson work hard in the Heritage.

The only real concern then is Hatton's current form, which was more immediately encouraging ahead of his first start here. However, an off week at Southwind can be overlooked as he'd been off for a month and doesn't appear to like it there. Then we have the PGA Championship, where he hit the ball really well but was awful around the greens.

Hatton gained +3.734 with his approach shots over the first two rounds and would've ranked third if continuing in that vein over the weekend, instead missing the cut. Given that he ranks fourth for the season, there's no reason he wouldn't have and the main message is his long-game remains very good.

Hatton was 13th around the green and 25th in putting here in 2018 and he'll enjoy this test so much more than the PGA Championship. On his form prior to a low-key fortnight on courses which probably don't suit he's a big player and a third win in 10 months is very much a possibility.

At the front of the market, it's really a case of as-you-were, even Collin Morikawa only having shortened by a couple of points since his sensational triumph at Harding Park. It's hard to know just how he'll react to being a major champion but 'extremely well' would be favourite, and those following him in his burgeoning career are well within their rights to play some house money.

Thomas ought to be favourite ahead of DeChambeau, but at 12/1 he's not quite big enough to tempt me in. The most reliable birdie-maker on the circuit and one of its standout iron players, he should make the most of the opportunities he will create here. There was nothing wrong with his PGA Championship performance, he just didn't feel comfortable with the shape he felt was required off the tee, and after a Monday knock with Tiger Woods at Winged Foot expect him to play well.

Rory McIlroy is a two-time winner who is sorely tempting, as his iron play did take a step forward at Harding Park. In fact he played superbly bar holes 12 to 14, a stretch over which he was +10, but bookmakers just aren't giving anything away. McIlroy keeps underperforming and keeps going off 12-14/1, which from my perspective means we'll just have to let him win.

Instead, I'll side with two Australians who are perhaps better known for their bogey avoidance than their birdie stats, but nevertheless arrive with compelling claims: JASON DAY and ADAM SCOTT.

Day was fourth in the PGA Championship last time to make it four top-10 finishes in succession and rubber-stamp his return to form. The former world number one was outstanding in San Francisco, and led the field in approach play which is particularly significant. That's the department in which he'd struggled for a couple of years, and in topping the field he was ending a five-year gap between drinks, the last time he did so having been in the major he won back in 2015.

"Everything is starting to connect and click," he said after a bogey-free final round saw him lay down a serious challenge a fortnight ago. "You know, coming into this week, I was confident on my game. I should be walking out of here more confident just with how I played today. If my putter gets hot, I'm going to win pretty soon."

That's a pretty bullish statement but one which is hard to disagree with. Day burned plenty of edges in the PGA, ranking 26th for the week and giving up significant ground to the eventual champion, who was first. The putter is warming up, though, as he's now gained strokes in four starts running, his best performance coming at Muirfield Village on predominantly bentgrass greens not dissimilar to these.

It's actually been on the greens that he's struggled here in recent years, but Day's record at Boston is strong and he says it fits his eye. Second and third before he'd become an established PGA Tour winner, he's finished inside the top 25 eight times in 11 visits, and while yet to show it the slight toughening of conditions should be to his advantage.

He's won two FedEx Cup Playoff events before, is among the most prolific in this field on bentgrass greens, and appears to have been freed up by ending a lengthy association with coach and mentor Col Swatton. Everything about his run of four top-10 finishes in a row has been positive, and while the market has tracked his every move, we know his ceiling is higher still.

Scott ranked eighth in birdie-or-better last year and is 30th so far this, both promising given these numbers aren't adjusted for difficulty of course. The former Masters winner tends to play the tougher tracks on the circuit, places like Riviera where he won in the spring for the second time in his career.

I'm hoping he can also double up at Boston, a course which is special to him as the site of his first PGA Tour win in 2003, when he was a class apart.

"This is one of my favourite events on the Tour and definitely has a special place in my heart, being where I won my first TOUR event back in 2003," he confirmed in 2014. "(I) always look forward to coming up to this area. And I've really enjoyed playing the course over the last few years. I think the changes they've made have really settled in and matured."

Like Day, he should in time prove suited by the changes made to the course and though he too hasn't yet shown it, Scott was not at his best when arriving here in 2017, and though better in 2018 he was still down at 38th in the world. Back up to 11th having won two of his last five tournaments, he's ready for one final push at the biggest and best events and is very much on the radar for the US Open.

Before that, he could well build on 22nd in the PGA Championship, a mighty performance given it was his return. Scott drove the ball perfectly well and putted to a high standard, complaining only that his iron play wasn't up to scratch. That's understandable, and it was encouraging that he said his coach thought everything was in the right place and he might just need to shake off some rust, an argument strengthened by the fact his best approach numbers came in the final round.

Scott can build on that performance at a course where he's been first, second, fourth, fifth, seventh and eighth, and he looks a very generous price to do so.

The Wyndham Championship is far from the worst pointer and several of those who contended on Sunday made the shortlist. Russell Henley and Billy Horschel both had a chance to win this in 2014, the latter misfiring his approach to the 18th, finishing second, then winning the following two events and with them the FedEx Cup.

Second again on Sunday, Horschel's post-tournament remarks were almost a carbon-copy of what he said after a difficult runner-up finish here six years ago and he could bounce back in style once more. Of the two though I would lean towards Henley, whose ball-striking remains seriously impressive, and who has a more solid book of form here for all neither have since threatened.

Si-Woo Kim and Harold Varner could flush their way into contention but at around the same area in the market, I can't leave JORDAN SPIETH unbacked at 80/1.

Spieth's travails are so well-documented that I doubt I need to cover them here. Safe to say, for those who only occasionally glance at leaderboards and wonder where he's gone, the three-time major champion needs to work out how to drive the ball better. If he does, I strongly suspect it'll bleed into the rest of his game, all aspects of which have fired on separate occasions this summer.

Whether that requires a coach or caddie change I am not qualified to say, but I'm certainly not one who will be writing him off anytime soon. The fact he keeps making cuts and fighting is testament to the character of the man, and his class - laughably downplayed by some - is inherent. To me it is not a question of if he will win again, but when, and while it may take a while longer, the price this week is too big.

Though his driving was poor again last week, almost costing him a weekend tee-time, Spieth explained that he wasn't necessarily playing Sedgefield the way it's meant to be played. In general, I thought his comments both during and after the tournament were encouraging. Certainly, he sounds more upbeat than he was when he finished 12th on his last visit here.

"It's one of those like I wouldn't be surprised if I'm in the same place next week and I wouldn't be surprised having a chance to win," he said. "Like I'm a little uncertain. Like it feels pretty good, not great, but good enough to be able to compete. The hole's got to start looking bigger. If I make a couple putts early in Thursday's round next week, that's normally all it takes to kind of get that confidence level back.

"I'm cleaning up the long game week to week. This is a tough course for it, there's out of bounds on both sides of every hole and when you're trying to work through kind of your timing element with the longer clubs, that can be a difficult place, but it can be a place where you start to make better strides going forward because of that.

"You've got to trust it on every single hole. So I hit a lot more drivers this week, not necessarily because it was the way to play the holes but because it was a good test for me. I'll keep trucking, I'll keep working hard and, you know, if it doesn't go well next week, then I'm actually probably going to be in a good enough place to feel like I can start out really, really strong in the 2021 season."

It's not unreasonable to smile and admire this optimism without buying into it, but I don't think you have to be as encouraged as he is to believe he's worth chancing at Boston. This is a course where he fired a brilliant, career-kickstarting final round to finish fourth on debut, where he was runner-up in 2017 and finished 12th when in a similar FedEx Cup predicament in 2018, and it's one where, crucially, he's driven the ball really well on a couple of occasions.

He doesn't need to hit driver too much at Boston, and Spieth's goal should be clear enough to avoid the sort of experimentation he engaged in at the Wyndham. At 100th in the FedEx Cup standings, he likely needs a top-10 finish to make it to the BMW Championship, and it is not beyond him. Even amidst this crisis he's contended at the course he's most comfortable playing since the Tour returned, and Boston isn't all that far behind Colonial.

Though Playoff winners tend to be high calibre, it's worth noting that the first event has thrown up some anomalies in the past. Names like Zac Blair, Sang-moon Bae, DA Points, Stuart Appleby, William McGirt, Sean O'Hair, Cameron Smith, Cameron Tringale and Daniel Summerhays have figured well inside the top 10 and with eight places on offer, it's worth looking beyond the obvious.

Sam Burns and Cameron Davis are two bright young talents playing well, Jason Kokrak likes it here and recent winner Richy Werenski wouldn't be a surprising contender back in his home state. Nor would Scott Stallings, who has never missed a cut in Boston, grew up learning to play golf in New England, and has caught the eye several times since the restart.

They're put forward for those who do want to chase the place money but I think 100/1 shot LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN has a realistic chance of winning and he completes the staking plan.

Though somehow yet to pick up silverware in the United States, Oosthuizen has been very close on any number of occasions including his debut here, when left for dead by McIlroy and settling for second. He tweaked his back during the final round of that event but still kept on well enough and has played well on all four subsequent visits, never finishing worse than 31st.

Clearly, it's a course which suits and he's returned to form lately, first when missing the places by a shot at Southwind and then when 33rd in the PGA Championship. On both occasions, Oosthuizen drove the ball well and I tend to think he relies on doing so at this level, the confidence that brings flowing through the rest of his game.

The old-fashioned ball-striking stats have always been a guide to this and he's been top-15 in each of his last three starts, and going back to that course form he in fact boasts the best adjusted scoring average at TPC Boston among those who've played at least three of the last 10 events here, with only Woods and McIlroy ahead in the non-adjusted table.

Oosthuizen went 6-11-15 through last year's Playoffs and this big-time performer really ought to extend an excellent record in Boston providing he putts well. Encouragement there can be taken from his effort in Connecticut recently, on similar greens, and like Spieth he's worth chancing to find the performance he needs to advance.

Posted at 1105 BST on 18/08/20

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