PGA Tour Rocket Mortgage Classic in-play betting preview and tips ahead of final round

Recommended bets

1pt e.w. Troy Merritt at 45/1 (1/4 1,2,3)

The fourth week back and it’s another shootout; as the old saying goes 'go low or go home'. You need plenty of birdies on the PGA Tour right now - leader Matt Wolff has 24, plus an eagle - and bogeys will see you in free-fall down the leaderboard. When Hideki Matsuyama finished his round yesterday, way before the leaders even made it to the first tee, he was tied for the lead; when everyone else had finished he found himself in a tie for 13th and seven shots behind.

Nate Lashley strolled to victory in the first edition of this event when, leading by six entering the final round, he started strongly and went on to win by the same margin on 25-under. We were told they had toughened up Detroit Golf Club this year but while the rough is lush and missing greens makes for tricky up-and-downs, hit them and you're in birdie range. Wolff personifies that – he has made seven bogeys already, only made three pars on Saturday, yet has pulled clear having made the most of his opportunities throughout rounds two and three.

It was actually looking like a bunched leaderboard until Wolff caught fire and went five-under for his last six holes, and he goes into the final round looking for his second win since turning professional last June. Should it happen, both will have come at huge odds and seemingly out-of-the-blue; his current best finish is first, but he's not yet added another top-10. That ought to change this evening.

I am actually quite a strong believer in bio-rhythms, in that players hit form at certain times of the year. Wolff has done nothing since winning the 3M Championship this very week last year and now he has a great chance to take his second title; in my opinion he really only has himself to beat and if he gets off to a hot start he will be difficult to catch. Not meaning to be offensive to Ryan Armour, but it’s not like he has a world-beater up against him in the final group and any pressure will probably come from off the pace where someone may need to shoot a round of 64 or better to beat him.

A lot of the talk has surrounded Bryson Dechambeau this week, as it has the previous three. He is playing the game differently to everyone else at the moment, but it doesn’t make him invincible; the game of golf can be played many different ways and he is yet to prove his new way can win. A few years ago everyone was talking about his scientific way of playing golf but new ways don’t always work out, at least not quickly - just ask Richard McEvoy about the European Open, when he played his normal game and DeChambeau went to pieces.

Bookmaker prices reflect market support to some degree, and finding a player under the radar - particularly on a leaderboard dominated by a couple of headline-makers - can be the best way to unearth value. One such example is TROY MERRITT, who has won twice on the PGA Tour, both in the summer and out of nowhere in 2015 and 2018. His price of 40/1 seems too big with four places on offer - how on earth Mark Hubbard, on the same score, is a lower price is a complete mystery to me.

Merritt has not made a bogey all week and sits T2 for driving accuracy, T3 for greens in regulation and T1 for scrambling. That really is an impressive range of stats and shows he is playing some pretty amazing golf. If he can carry on that consistent level of play he shouldn't be going far and this streaky, birdie-making player tends to stick around when he's on a going week - which very much looks to be the case here.

The only fly in the ointment is the fact he is playing the final round alongside DeChambeau, who will no doubt be pushing himself to the limit to catch Wolff, but even that could play into Merritt's hands. He is an experienced professional who doesn't tend to get flustered, and he's not about to be drawn into a battle off the tee. He'll stick to his own game plan and if the putter gets hot, he could trouble the talented leader.

Posted at 0900 BST on 05/07/20

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