Ben Coley's Tournament of Champions preview and tips
Having banked over 300 points of profit in 2017, don't miss Ben Coley's first preview of the golfing year as he looks at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
It's difficult to earn an invite for the Sentry Tournament of Champions, an event restricted to PGA Tour winners of the previous year, but Cameron Smith pulled a fine trick in getting himself here and can capitalise with his first proper victory at this, the highest level.
Smith earned his spot courtesy of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, newly reformatted as a two-man team event. The young Australian was the definite star of his side, made up by an otherwise out-of-form Jonas Blixt, but the bottom line is this was not the solo title he may well have dreamed of when growing up.
In an imaginary world where there are golf trivia quizzes in your local, a win for Smith this week would make him the answer to a seriously niche question and there are plenty of reasons to fancy him at 50/1 in a place and a more than fair 40/1 generally.
After winning in Louisiana, Smith endured a standard lull before recapturing his form at just the right time. He signed off 2017 with a breakthrough victory in his homeland, beating Jordan Zunic in a play-off for the Australian PGA Championship which was played very close to his childhood home in Queensland.
That puts him in ideal shape to keep climbing the ladder in 2018 and he needs to do so, because as things stand he's one of just a handful of these sitting outside the world's top 50, which means he does not yet have access to every tournament on the schedule.
It shouldn't be long before this 24-year-old is among the game's elite - he already has a major top-five to his name - and I'm of the belief he's capable of winning an event of this nature.
First of all, the Plantation Course on Maui should suit.
While this par-73 might look made for the big-hitters on paper, in reality it favours those who are deadly with short approach shots and tidy around these massive greens. Perhaps that's because some of the par-fives are so long as to make hitting them in two extremely difficult - typically, we see few eagles here - and it becomes more a case of getting up-and-down. To that end, 18 of the 20 winners here have ranked 10th or better for scrambling and while the limited field needs acknowledging, 12 of them were third or better.
It's also a reflection of the elevation changes which mean we'll see drives of 400 yards pretty frequently this week. Like a course at altitude or one whose tees have been pushed forward, the Plantation does not play anything like its official yardage.
When you see Zach Johnson, Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth on the recent roll-of-honour it's fairly obvious that magic hands around the greens will help and Smith certainly has them. Last year he ranked eighth for strokes-gained around the greens, just behind Luke Donald, and both those wins in 2017 came courtesy of some clutch scrambling when it mattered.
Given the expansive and exposed nature of this course, an ability to play in the wind is also a prerequisite and Smith has no problems on that score. We saw as much in the CJ Cup late last season where he contended to the end behind Justin Thomas, plus when sixth in a demanding Texas Open, and there aren't many Australians who don't like a breeze. Perhaps that explains why Geoff Ogilvy and Stuart Appleby won this thing five times between them.
There is a concern around this being his event debut, but we are talking about a player who finished fourth in his first ever major championship and second in just his second event on the Asian Tour, soon after turning professional. The latter may not sound all that relevant, but it was a lucrative edition of the Indonesian Masters in which Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Bernd Wiesberger finished behind Smith, who was only beaten after a stunning eagle from Anirban Lahiri.
In other words, he's a quick learner and I'm happy to take the chance that this course plays to his undoubted strengths.
Sticking with the Australian theme, Marc Leishman stands out of those towards the very top of the market.
It's almost a decade since Leishman was named PGA Tour rookie of the year and more than five years since his first title, but 2017 felt like the completion of his transition to world-class level.
Victory in the BMW Championship, a FedEx Cup Playoff event, came courtesy of one of the most measured, composed final rounds of the season as he held off Justin Rose, something which, as we've subsequently been reminded, is not an easy thing to achieve.
It's no surprise that Leishman continued to play well thereafter as he finally looks like a player who believes in his own capabilities. With life off the course having settled down after his wife's much-discussed health scare, there's no reason he can't take another big step forward in 2018 - starting here.
Again, there's a slight issue when it comes to the course as Leishman struggled a little here in 2013, but I'm willing to overlook that effort. Although he finished fourth in the Masters that April, it was an otherwise miserable start to the year and the evidence suggests that he'd have found it difficult to compete anywhere. Plus, it was a 54-hole renewal which was restarted such were the winds on Thursday - far from ideal conditions for a player struggling with his swing.
Like most winners of this event, the 34-year-old is in actual fact extremely comfortable in the wind, a point underlined by three top-six finishes in the last four years in the Open Championship, and his short-game has improved markedly over the last few years. In 2017, he ranked fourth of those playing this week for strokes-gained around the green and he remains a very good putter.
He's got form in a no-cut, limited-field event having won the Nedbank Challenge by an impressive six shots in 2015 as well as last year's 69-runner BMW and he's also more than capable off a break, as his strong record in the Sony Open, also held in Hawaii, suggests.
And, while the top of the market is strong, that means we can back a player who ended 2017 in the form of his life at a general 25/1, which looks smashing value.
Of those market leaders, Rickie Fowler has the most likeable credentials in some respects given that he's proven at the course and in the wind, is dynamite around the greens and signed off last year with that sensational Sunday to win the Hero World Challenge.
It's only four years since Zach Johnson won this event having also landed the Hero a month earlier and last year, Hideki Matsuyama finished second to Thomas here having dominated in the Bahamas. It's a huge positive that Fowler arrives seeking back-to-back wins, even if that's a feat he's yet to achieve himself.
The trouble is, he's still not as prolific as you'd like for one priced as the equal of Dustin Johnson. Perhaps 2018 is the year that sees Fowler develop that ruthless mentality - I certainly hope that's the case - but until he does, I'll struggle to side with him against several of the world's best players at single-figure odds.
Spieth is far more prolific. He's won once every 10 starts, 14 times in total, since turning professional - Fowler has six fewer wins in almost 100 more starts. Sorry to labour the point, and there's greater nuance to the argument than that which I'm discussing, but the gap between their respective prices is just not big enough.
Throw in Thomas, DJ, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka and Matsuyama and you have yourself a high-class party, but the aforementioned Aussie duo have shown that they can compete on these terms and get the vote to enhance their nation's fabulous record in the event.
Finally, some loose change is thrown in the direction of Wesley Bryan, who earned his spot with victory by the sea in the RBC Heritage.
That event strikes me as a decent enough guide to this one, despite the courses being as near to polar opposites as you'll find in purely aesthetic terms, and Bryan's wedge-and-putt game should be well-served by the Plantation Course, where he's been for a few days now.
Bryan didn't do a great deal after earning a plaid jacket but still bagged third in the John Deere, again under suitable conditions, before signing off the best year of his burgeoning career with a top-10 finish in the Dunlop Phoenix, in which Koepka dominated but Xander Schauffele and Matsuyama finished only just ahead of him.
His only missed cuts since early summer came in the majors so he's probably playing a little better than some fairly modest finishing positions imply, and as one of the best in this field with wedge in hand looks worth a speculative play to shake up the big guns having shown an ability not only to win, but to do so after a break.
Recommended bets:
2pts e.w. Marc Leishman at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Cameron Smith at 50/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Wesley Bryan at 200/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Posted at 1705 GMT on 01/01/18.