Golf betting tips: Porsche European Open preview and best bets
Ben Coley bagged more place returns with 100/1 Alex Bjork in Denmark, and he's taking a few chances in the Porsche European Open.
Golf betting tips: Porsche European Open
2pts e.w. Laurie Canter at 40/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Adrian Meronk at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Ross Fisher at 100/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard at 125/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Tapio Pulkannen at 150/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Matthias Schmid at 1000/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Just as it was beginning to look as though the European Tour had managed to navigate a path through this pandemic, its return to Germany, where the government has strict rules it will not bend for professional golfers, has forced a change of plan. Quite how they've got this far, 11 months on from those off-camera events in neighbouring Austria, I'm not sure. It's been an almighty effort and if you were in doubt as to why Keith Pelley and co needed to spend fortnights at Celtic Manor, in Cyprus, Kenya, Dubai and Tenerife, here's your answer.
That the European Open will go ahead at all is testament to the Tour's doggedness. It will have been enormously frustrating to have this popular, Porsche-backed event delayed by 48 hours, to allow time for those arriving from both the UK and Denmark. But rather than postpone until later in the year, deny a good chunk of the field their chance to play, or cancel altogether, instead it will be 54 holes from Saturday to Monday and, as Thomas Bjorn alluded to during the Made In Himmerland, you will hear very few complaints.
Whether headline acts Paul Casey and Abraham Ancer meet their commitments to play remains to be seen, although the former won here in 2019 and the latter does drive a lovely-looking Porsche. Presumably, Ancer will therefore turn up and do his bit, knowing that he has ample time to return home to Texas and prepare for the US Open, which begins a fortnight on Thursday. Casey meanwhile will surely relish the chance to play the lead role and will have designs on his second win of a strong 2021.
Preparation time is what everyone here at Green Eagle will lack, because nobody arrives until Friday, less than 24 hours before tee-off. You'd think that will be more of a problem for those without a look at the course previously, but as one caddie told me at the weekend, 'it's right there in front of you' and won't take much learning. What it might take is power: Green Eagle can stretch beyond 7,800 yards, and five par-fives (two of which are over 600 yards) lend a definite advantage to bigger hitters.
"It's long, I think that's the first thing that comes to mind," was the response of Xander Schauffele when he played here a couple of years ago. "It's probably the longest course I've ever played in my life." He wasn't kidding, and while Richard McEvoy defied a distance handicap to famously down Bryson DeChambeau in 2018, focus more on those behind him, those competing with Casey a year later, and the 2017 play-off between Jordan Smith and Alex Levy, and you'll get a pretty clear picture.
In fact I would put Green Eagle right alongside Albatross in Prague, and perhaps Royal Greens in Saudi Arabia, as one of the most bomber-friendly courses on the circuit. Combine that with the aggression which is demanded by a 54-hole shootout, if it can be termed that way on what is a difficult layout, and you have a formula which almost makes things appear straightforward.
Who is the best bet for the Porsche European Open?
Then you remember you've still got to find the right ones but I'm hopeful this could be ideal for TAPIO PULKKANEN and he's the headline selection at around the 150/1 mark.
This big-hitting Finn had been struggling before his debut in this event three years ago, but shot three good rounds to sit on the fringes of the top 20 before a difficult Sunday. A couple of starts later he contended at Albatross before going on to place in the Dunhill Links, where calm conditions and generous pins helped him bully his way to a big cheque.
In 2019 he was again playing poorly before missing the cut, so the message is that what he's achieved in the European Open may not tell us the whole story. And if you dig into his Nordic Golf League form you'll see that he actually won here, comfortably, back in 2015. That may not sound like a particularly worthwhile guide, but in third was Christopher Blomstrand, whose best European Tour finish came back here when runner-up in 2018. Per Langfors has also won an NGL event at Green Eagle, and his standout European Tour performance in terms of ranking points earned came here, too.
Among Pulkkanen's highlights on the Challenge Tour was a win in Kazakhstan, on a beast of a course and where subsequent European Open winner Jordan Smith had earlier been second, and it was clear how much he enjoyed thrashing driver when third in Tenerife recently. In other words throughout his flourishes of form you'll see that driver-first courses are a theme, and those winning memories of Green Eagle make this an ideal place for his breakthrough.
Unlike in both 2018 and 2019, Pulkkanen this time arrives in much better shape. First he started well in Tenerife, then he finished third at the same course a week later, before a decent effort at The Belfry followed by 19th in Denmark, where he was 11-under for the final three rounds having been slow to get going on Thursday.
Clearly, another slow start will soon have him out of this but Pulkkanen's approach play has come on a great deal along with the putter, and he has bags of room to improve off the tee. Green Eagle should encourage him to get the driver out and hit it hard and if he does avoid the big miss then he can have a say at a big price.
Canter to hack up?
Towards the top of the market, Sam Horsfield is an ideal type having been 14th here in 2019, despite a slow start, and improved a heck of a lot since. He showed what he can do in the best company when starting well in the PGA Championship and was 21st at a restrictive course before that in the British Masters, so with the emphasis on big-hitting he's a tempting option as a two-time winner since last summer who will likely play his way to the PGA Tour in time.
I'm just a little concerned that his occasional waywardness might produce some big numbers so LAURIE CANTER is preferred at a bigger prices on this occasion.
One of the best drivers on the circuit and among the most prolific birdie-makers in 2020, Canter can demonstrate that Green Eagle is ideal, something he hinted at when starting well back in 2017. At the time he was 655th in the world and clearly still figuring out how to make the most of what's always been enormous potential, yet he ended the week ninth in ball-striking and fourth in total driving and sat 19th at halfway.
Thanks to top-five finishes in Dubai, Italy, Portugal and Wales last year, he's now delivering what had long been promised and his form since returning from a rare start in the US has been both progressive and encouraging. Certainly, I would have this down as a much more suitable course for him than Himmerland, where he finished eighth on Sunday for his first top-10 since February, and it was pleasing to see his putter warm up to complement a consistently excellent long-game.
Five par-fives certainly put him at an advantage and there's definitely a chance that Richard Bland's British Masters helped inspire a little improvement from some of those who practice with him, very competitively by the sound of things, at The Wisley. Canter credited his base for helping him step up last year and it can play a part in his first win.
ROSS FISHER is another of those who play out of The Wisley, and he has previous in a 54-hole European Open, having lost a play-off to Alex Levy in a rain-affected event in 2015.
There's been rain around in Hamburg and there's more to come, another reason to believe long, quality driving will be important, and that's always been a staple of Fisher's game. It's partly why he's often come to the fore on longer, parkland courses, which in turn helps explain an excellent record in Germany in particular.
Fisher was out of sorts when making his debut here in 2019 but still fared pretty well to finish mid-pack, and this time arrives buoyed not only by Bland's win, but a first top-10 finish of the year. Like Canter, it was produced on a course slightly less vulnerable to his main weapons, and saw the former Ryder Cup player rank fifth in approaches having been 10th in the same category at The Belfry.
That encouraging trend marks him out as one to watch for at a big price, especially as he showed in December's Golf in Dubai Championship that he's still a threat under the right conditions. Generally speaking, Fisher is at his best on modern courses where he can hit driver upon driver, and he could well contend here just as he did at Jumeirah Golf Estates.
Rasmus Hojgaard once played Green Eagle in a Nordic Golf League event which was aptly named 'Master of the Monster', a reflection of the fact the locals refer to this as the Green Monster. That experience can't hurt but while his driving improved last week, he ultimately disappointed once more and, not for the first time recently, was outshone by his brother NICOLAI HOJGAARD.
It seems that Nicolai, who don't forget was the first to make an impression on the European Tour when second at the KLM Open, is really putting things together and he too has some course experience, having outperformed Rasmus when making the cut here in 2018. Aged just 17, he sat 16th after round one, impressing along with Viktor Hovland, and returned a year later to miss the cut on the number.
Now established and in-form, having bagged two top-10 finishes and made each of his last five cuts, Nicolai can put his driving prowess to use on a course which will reward it more than Himmerland, where it was driver and putter that let him down in an otherwise encouraging display. Ranking fifth in approaches and having holed more than his share on his previous start, expect him to climb those off-the-tee rankings now his power can be unleashed at a course he knows.
Inside the top 25 for distance, strokes-gained approach and par-five scoring so far this season, the Danish youngster has the perfect make-up for a shortened event on a long course and is fancied to go really well. Three-figure prices are generous.
Maiden Meronk ready to break through
Further up the market, ADRIAN MERONK lacks experience of Green Eagle but otherwise looks a fascinating contender and goes in alongside Canter as one of the more likely contenders behind the headline acts.
While he's the first Polish player to hold a European Tour card, Meronk was in fact born in Hamburg, just a few miles north of Green Eagle, and this is as close to a home game as he'll get. It's his first chance, too, and the impression he's made lately suggests he could be ready to take it.
Meronk is among the longest and best drivers on the circuit, ranking eighth in strokes-gained off the tee, so it's little wonder he does so much of his scoring on the par-fives. But the truth is right now his game has no obvious weakness, and that's translated to a run of excellent results in what's his second season at the top level.
Last week's share of 31st was up and down, Meronk shooting rounds of 66 and 65 but over-par on both Thursday and Saturday, however he was third on two of his previous three starts and I'm not at all convinced Himmerland will have been ideal for him. Green Eagle should be and if he can sharpen up his approach play, there's no reason he can't go well as he seeks to lock up a US Open spot having put himself in position to do just that.
Thomas Detry might have made the staking plan had he shown just a little more in Denmark, while explosive duo Callum Shinkwin and Julian Suri also made the shortlist. Suri contended here before he was in possession of a European Tour card and Shinkwin, a brilliant driver when at his best, has hints of form at the course and has done reasonably since winning in Cyprus.
Those seeking another veteran champion could do worse than Stephen Gallacher, 12th on his first look at Green Eagle and with four top-30 finishes in his last seven starts. He played Walker Cup golf alongside Bland almost 30 years ago and says he was inspired by what his long-time friend did a fortnight ago, just as he was by Phil Mickelson and Padraig Harrington at Kiawah Island.
But I'll sign off by taking the pick of the prices about young amateur MATTHIAS SCHMID, who just shouldn't be 1000/1 and is considered worth backing at prices north of 250/1.
Schmid is 23rd in the World Amateur Golf Rankings and seventh according to GolfWeek's list, and as I have written many times before I don't know as bookmakers take top amateurs seriously enough. He didn't quite hit the top 10, but it's just two years since Collin Morikawa opened up a 750/1 shot in the Canadian Open, and while Schmid isn't as good, nor is this field as strong.
Morikawa arrived in Canada having just come through a US Open qualifier, and the same is true of Schmid. Just last week, he shot 68-65 at Dallas Athletic, sharing first with another amateur. Further down that leaderboard were the likes of Graeme McDowell, Pat Perez, Kramer Hickok, Scott Piercy, Brandon Wu, Bronson Burgoon, Johannes Veerman and Scott Stallings.
Granted, Veerman didn't do much for the form in Denmark, but he'd flown in the same day and was entitled to struggle, whereas Schmid has time to get to Germany following an event at the weekend. Besides which the point here isn't that Schmid showed there that he's about to win on the European Tour; it's that he confirmed the impression he's made over the last couple of years, including two wins in the European Amateur Championship, and is better than his odds, especially as he hits it miles.
It's important to note that he isn't without tour-level experience, and missed the cut by a good distance at Bay Hill in the spring. This, however, is so much easier, it's on home soil, and even the fact that it's a 54-hole event for which nobody will be ideally prepared can be seen as a positive.
As mentioned, Nicolai Hojgaard and Hovland both created quite an impression in this event two years ago, while in 2018, a German amateur tied for second. Allen John was a good deal more experienced, but probably nowhere near as good, and Schmid is worth chancing to small stakes at the best prices on offer.
Posted at 1730 BST on 31/05/21
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