Mayakoba Classic tips: Final round betting preview including Justin Thomas

Mayakoba Classic recommended bets

2pts win Justin Thomas to win Mayakoba Classic at 15/2

1pt e.w. Patrick Rodgers to win Mayakoba Classic at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3)

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The year 2020 will live long in the memory for a myriad of reasons, mostly of course for all the wrong ones.

From a golfing perspective for those of us who enjoy the infuriating niche lifestyle of living and breathing the every swing of our chosen men for four days every week, a small semblance of normality came back to our lives when the PGA Tour returned to action in June followed by the European Tour a month or so later, and huge credit must go to the powers that be on both sides of the Atlantic for getting the show back on the road and then navigating it successfully through the remainder of the year.

Before Jay Monahan and co. at PGA Tour HQ can sit back and take a short breather there is one final act to be played out and that is to award a trophy at the year's final event on the PGA Tour, The Mayakoba Classic, and looking at the 54-hole leaderboard we have what promises to be quite a finale to the 2020 action Stateside.

Top of the pile heading into day four is Emiliano Grillo who sits on sixteen under, one shot clear of Tom Hoge and two ahead of Viktor Hovland. We then have Adam Long a further shot back on thirteen under and the pair of Justin Thomas and Patrick Rodgers on twelve under.

Grillo, it is fair to say, has been a tough man to follow since his lone PGA Tour victory just over five years ago on his debut as a full tour member.

In March, though, just before the tour took its enforced hiatus, the Argentine started working with swing coach Chris Como, the man largely responsible for Bryson Dechambeau’s success, and while the results weren’t immediate, since a third place at the 3M Open in July he has found a really solid groove of form.

If you combine this run with the fact that Grillo has posted three top fifteen finishes in four visits to El Camaleon, and two further top threes in Puerto Rico on the same paspalum greens, then a long overdue second tour title here would hardly be a shock.

However, having opened up a four shot lead at halfway courtesy of a 63 on Friday, when he holed everything he looked at, a slightly edgier looking 68 on Saturday as the putter predictably cooled down has opened the door for the chasing pack.

Grillo backers can take confidence from the fact that the last three 54-hole leaders here have all gone on to victory, with two of them, Brendon Todd last year and Patton Kizzire in 2017, holding the same, slender one shot lead. But this will be the first time Grillo has held the outright lead or share of it through 54 holes on the PGA Tour, and when you add this to the fact that he has only converted on two of the six occasions he has been in this position worldwide, then he is not one for maximum faith at a general 9/4.

Looking at the chasing pack and Tom Hoge deserves huge credit for the way he rallied on the back nine to post five birdies in his final six holes after hitting his tee shot on the par three tenth in to the hazard, while Viktor Hovland - this year's winner in Puerto Rico - is a huge threat. However, I can’t bring myself to take 6/1 about the maiden Hoge or 3/1 about Hovland when the spectre of Justin Thomas looms large and available at 15/2 in a couple of places.

Granted, no one has won here on Sunday from more than three shots back since Jon Huh triumphed from seven behind in 2012, but let's be honest the likes of Thomas don’t tend to turn up in Mexico at this time of year too often.

Thomas started slowly on Thursday with a one over par 72 but after a 67, which by his own admission really should have been a 64 or better, on Friday, he really found his mojo on Saturday to post a best of the week, 62.

A two-time winner on similar surfaces at the CIMB Classic, this is set up absolutely perfectly for the ‘chasing JT’ that we have seen come through on several occasions over recent years, and who served this column so well at the WGC Fedex St Jude in the summer.

His selection won’t win any awards for the most original pick of the year, though I find it impossible to get away from him and the price is more than fair.

Looking at some others in the hunt and those who saw my own pre-tournament preview will know that I have Adam Long onside from before the off and on that basis I am hopeful the 33-year-old can make a push for the title.

Second here last year and fifth on the paspalum recently at the Corales when holding the 54 hole lead, Long clearly loves this type of surface and track. Like Thomas, he made a huge move on Saturday shooting 63 and I would have been tempted to put him up again here had the initial 16/1 still been available (he's 14s with BetVictor but generally 10s and 12s, and that looks about right).

Instead, I'll add one other alongside Thomas to round out 2020 for this column in the shape of Patrick Rodgers.

Like many I have been waiting for everything to finally click for the hugely talented Rodgers and I suspect when the first win does come more may follow fairly quickly.

Earlier in the year when Rodgers was in a really solid groove it looked like that first win was on the horizon but with four missed cuts in his last five starts it looked like it wasn’t to be for 2020.

This week, however, the Stanford grad has bounced back to form and his normal Achilles heel - namely his approach play - has been strong.

Rodgers famously went 61, 62 at the weekend to come from nowhere in his final start of 2018 at the RSM Classic, only to lose out in a play-off to Charles Howell III, so he has previous in producing a big finish on a short coastal track in his last start of the year, and that will surely be in his mind.

Rodgers started this week with a round of 70 before going 66, 65 on Friday and Saturday, and it may just be that the 28-year-old, who is not afraid to produce bursts of really low scoring, has something explosive in him on Sunday, and he makes good each way appeal at 33/1.

Posted at 0830 GMT on 06/12/20