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Viktor Hovland can outdo Jon Rahm this week
Viktor Hovland can outdo Jon Rahm this week

The Open specials tips and prop bets: Ben Coley's best bets from other Open Championship markets

By Ben Coley
Golf
Thu July 20, 2023 · 1y ago

Viktor Hovland can prove the pick of the continental Europeans in the Open Championship according to Ben Coley.

Golf betting tips: Open Championship specials

2pts Viktor Hovland top continental European at 7/2 (General)

2pts Tom Kim top Korean at 5/2 (BetVictor - 12/5 general)

1pt double Hovland and Kim at 16/1 (BoyleSports, BetVictor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Top continental European

Since VIKTOR HOVLAND truly emerged as a major force in last summer's Open Championship, the top continental European market has been a lockout which now sits as a stalemate, the score between him and Jon Rahm 2-2.

Rahm of course holds the upper hand overall owing to his exploits in previous years, but right now there might not be as much between them as the market suggests, one firm making Rahm less than 2/1 while all of them make Hovland more than 3/1.

Despite reservations as to how well his short-game will hold up if and when it comes to the crunch, I do think Hovland will enjoy another good week having been a persistent threat throughout a year's worth of majors now. All the rain that has fallen and continues to fall is in his favour, too.

Rahm is entitled to enormous respect of course and an Open will probably come his way at some stage. Still, he's been off since the Travelers and while he prepared playing links golf in Ireland I prefer Hovland's choice of the Scottish Open.

There he produced second-round fireworks after a shaky start and then was never really in the tournament, an ideal way to ready himself for the main prize. I find the pair hard to split and therefore at the prices, given his potentially superior preparation and Rahm's good but unspectacular Open record, it's Hovland for me.

There might also be scope for an each-way play with enough wind and rain in the forecast to sort these out, and my vote would go to Victor Perez for those so inclined.

With the Hojgaard twins still wet behind the ears, Perez's 12th place at the PGA Championship stands out as potentially the biggest clue on offer. He's links proven, too, capturing the Dunhill Links and winning at Yas Links, with the Dutch Open Bernardus in-between, all of them potentially relevant.

Although the form of Perez isn't obviously strong, his approach play has come back to where he needs it over the last few weeks and a mid-pack finish in the Scottish Open was fine. He rates the best value ahead of Alex Noren, with Marcel Siem the other appealing option if you can get 66/1 or bigger, but it'll be very difficult for anyone to finish ahead of both Rahm and Hovland.

Top Korean

TOM KIM has taken a walk in the outright market, on the exchanges at least, but he can prove best of the seven Korean players in the field.

Sungjae Im's form has been pretty miserable since he returned home to win on the eve of the PGA Championship and as yet he's shown nothing in the Open. It's still early and he has the tools, but he's simply not been anywhere near his best lately.

While Im has gone off the boil, Kim has started to motor, buoyed by an excellent performance at the US Open. Top Korean in that, he was tied with Im at Augusta in April but their games have gone in opposite directions since then.

Ben An might be a bigger threat than Si Woo Kim and is respected but Tom Kim, who played in the final group in Scotland last week and would've won this market had he not three-putted from close range on 18, is fancied to build on an encouraging Open debut last summer.

That might do and at bigger than 2/1 with several firms he's cracking value.

Top American

Though not a market I'm inclined to play in, there are two points to make. One is that if you think Scottie Scheffler is a bet to nothing outright, then 4/1 with your money back for a place in this market must be considered. It's a simple formula which would've returned something in his last seven starts.

The other thing I must mention is that Paddy Power and Betfair make Jordan Spieth a 25/1 chance. The same firms offer the same price in the outright betting, albeit with bumper place terms, but it's pretty clear Spieth shouldn't be the price he is without the non-Americans.

Top amateur

Recent history points towards winners of the European Amateur but I'd be more inclined to value British seaside form, making Christo Lamprecht and Alex Maguire the pair to focus on.

Maguire's form under links conditions has been superb, earning him a place in this field. The bonus is he also has played Hoylake before, complete with stands, having come here just prior to Rory McIlroy's Open win after his dad took his chances by ringing the pro shop.

He says he doesn't remember much of it but also notes his strong links pedigree and the fact that he thrives in front of big crowds. Having gone deep in the last two renewals of the Amateur Championship, he deserves close attention.

Lamprecht, who won the Amateur Championship earlier this summer, is the one to beat. He's the third-ranked amateur in the world and to my eye there looks to be a very strong chance that it's either him or Maguire winning the Silver Medal.

At best prices you can dutch the two at 13/10 and that looks a really good option. Unfortunately with only a select few firms having priced up this market, I'll have to leave it out of the staking plan.

Top senior

Padraig Harrington will probably boss this and having been on him in the same market with some success already this year, I won't be talking down his chances. Indeed he has been under consideration over the past fortnight and a run at winning the Open isn't totally out of the realms of possibility.

That said, at the US Open he was around a 7/4 chance with Stewart Cink about 9/4. Now, a few weeks later, Harrington remains the same sort of price and even a hair shorter, yet Cink opened up at 6/1. Also a decorated links player having won this in 2009, the head-to-head between him and Harrington has been close since then.

It's no bet based on the respect I have for Harrington and the fact that while he prepared in Scotland, Cink was playing a seniors major in Ohio. Nevertheless I find the price discrepancy hard to understand and there's no way Richard Bland deserves to be shorter than Cink. Perhaps only Harrington does.

Top Englishman

Matt Fitzpatrick appeared to be keen to talk himself of this tournament on Monday, expressing his generally apathy towards links golf. His honesty is to be admired but having criticised a couple of recent US Open venues and bit his tongue when asked about the new 17th hole here, he's getting a bit of a reputation.

That made me ponder putting up Justin Rose each-way, with Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood to beat. Ultimately however those two look absolutely rock solid, Fleetwood in particular, and there are plenty of excellent links players at bigger prices.

There might be better ways to capitalise if Fitzpatrick struggles in the way he seemingly expects to.

Tournament match bets

It's hard to advise in these markets as seldom do firms pit the same two players against each other. I've long wondered why there's not yet a drop-down menu option where you can select the two players yourself and prices are generated thereafter, but I suppose the answer is there's not enough business to justify it.

For that reason there are no recommendations but I do want to highlight Tony Finau, who I suspect will have a good Open. He's yet to miss a cut in the event and while his form lately doesn't look great, he was close to the leaders in the US Open for a while, and then went off 20/1 for the Travelers Championship, playing reasonably there.

One missed cut when finally defending a title in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where again he was priced alongside Rickie Fowler and Collin Morikawa who are now half the odds, probably didn't tell us a great deal and I'd note that he'd been in pretty poor form prior to five of his 10 major top-10s.

Sky Bet go 5/6 each of two with Cam Young, who hasn't finished ahead of Finau since the Masters. The score in 2023 reads 8-3 in Finau's favour with two ties and I wouldn't read too much into St Andrews, where Young finished second. Finau seems a solid bet.

Posted at 1700 BST on 18/07/23

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