The Open golf betting tips: Ben Coley's preview and best bets for the 150th Open Championship at St Andrews
Ben Coley previews the 150th Open Championship at St Andrews, where Cameron Smith looks primed to secure his first major.
Golf betting tips: The Open Championship
3pts e.w. Cameron Smith at 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-9)
2pts e.w. Dustin Johnson at 35/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-10)
1.5pts e.w. Tony Finau at 50/1 (bet365 1/5 1-8)
1.5pt e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 50/1 (bet365 1/5 1-8)
1.5pts e.w. Max Homa at 50/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports 1/5 1-11)
1pt e.w. Patrick Reed at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1-12)
Every so often, those who cover men's golf, those who watch it, those who bet on it perhaps, will find themselves answering a question like this: which is your favourite major? The most common answer would surely be the Masters, whose iconography reinforces its history by making recollection far easier. Prime-time viewing for Europeans and the tournament every American hopes to attend, its appeal is obvious, undimmed by the fact we are in July.
But there is one tournament which might just top it, not just for me, or for you dear reader, but for the world's best players. That tournament is the Open Championship at St Andrews, emphasis on those final three words. Tiger Woods has won by 15 at Pebble Beach and both his first and surely last major wins came at Augusta National, yet he is unequivocal about his favourite golf course. Jack Nicklaus has made no secret about where this tournament stands in the game. In the sport of golf, there is surely nothing better.
Timing, they say, is everything, and like everyone I hope that the spells cast by this piece of land remain as potent as ever; that press conference minutes are spent talking Tiger and Jack, the Road Hole, the first, the last. Hell Bunker. John Daly and the streaker, the Dunvegan, even Prince William. Anything but that which casts a shadow over the sport. Not this week – this week, let the 150th discovery of a Champion Golfer of the Year take to the stage alone.
This being an Open, the weather forecast has to be factored into calculations, and at the moment it suggests that wind will be about as insignificant as it ever is in this part of Scotland. The Old Course is so exposed that it takes little more than a zephyr to alter calculations somewhat, but there's nothing to suggest anyone will be blown off course as Rory McIlroy was in 2010, or as the entire field was in 2015, when delays meant for a Monday finish. As of now, conditions are perfect for playing golf, and in some ways that's bad news for the R&A and many watching on.
It might be good news for McIlroy, who has a score to settle here in more ways than one. Remember, a cherubic version of the athlete we know today shot 63-80 over the first two days of what remains his sole Open start here, before missing the 2015 renewal due to injury. Oh, what might have been. At the time, McIlroy was world number one, three wins into the season, set to defend the Claret Jug. Seven years further down the line and Valhalla 2014 remains the most recent of four majors for the sport's constant presence.
McIlroy returns now as favourite and with every chance at a course he adores, one where he was able to shoot a second-round 80 and still finish third when not the player he is today. He's since been first, second, fourth, and fifth in the Open, at times defying conditions which some maintain he can't handle, and if his short-game is back on track following a short break then I've no doubt he's the man to beat.
Who is the best bet for the Open Championship?
Taking 10/1 in the Open, however, holds little appeal. It's a bigger price than Jordan Spieth was when he almost added a third leg to what could've been a grand slam 2015, and it's of course a bigger price than Woods was for his two wins at the Old Course, but today's competition is fierce and the world number two is no more than fairly priced. To use Spieth again, I'm reminded of his Open victory as the world number three in 2017 which came at 16/1 and is as short as I'd want to go about any player in this field and on this golf course.
Remember, we've had back-to-back skinners at St Andrews, first Louis Oosthuizen and then Zach Johnson, and the Open in general is the major most likely to throw up a shock. That's not to say I think the right approach is to speculate wildly, but each-way is surely the best policy and as far as the best bet goes, my view is that it's CAMERON SMITH at 25/1 and bigger.
There's been much talk in the build-up of what the modern professional might do to St Andrews, the implication being that it could be overpowered. Nicklaus is far from the only former champion to speculate that records could tumble, that Branden Grace's 62 from Birkdale could be under threat, and it's easy to see why: holes like the ninth, 12th and 18th are within reach for more and more players, as are both par-fives, and eagle opportunities are around every corner.
However, read beyond the headlines and you'll get to the notes of caution, like Nicklaus warning that any lack of discipline and concentration and you might be finished, and like McIlroy himself suggesting strategic play off the tee will be vital. That's the beauty and the charm of the Old Course and links golf in general, and with firm fairways already more brown than green, I wonder whether we're forgetting that the defences of this place extend well beyond wind to some outrageous greens, not to mention over a hundred bunkers.
Staying out of those will be the focus of most tee-shots and there's no doubt driving accuracy has been important here, despite the fact wide fairways make for high percentages across the field. So too has scrambling, with the first three in that category back in 2015 finishing fourth, first, and second. The winner, Johnson, is a master wedge player and the same is true of play-off loser Marc Leishman, who was sublime over the weekend.
The third member of that Monday play-off was Oosthuizen, who came up a shot shy of winning back-to-back Opens here. His runaway success in 2010 came courtesy of a brilliant driving display but brilliant did not mean indiscriminately thrashing the ball off the tee. Focused by that red spot on his glove, Oosthuizen set about finding the perfect spot down the fairway, and played wonderfully to execute his own shock win.
How does this relate to Smith? Well, first of all it's my way of saying that the Old Course will require more subtlety than some appear to fear. It's also perhaps an indication that being deadly with a wedge is more important than the 15 yards he lacks off the tee, and it's hard to look at any Open renewal here without seeing how important a sharp short-game was.
When it's firing, as it usually is, there may be no better short-game at the top of men's golf than that of Smith. We saw it in action when he won The PLAYERS despite spraying the ball everywhere and had he putted anywhere close to that standard in the PGA Championship, there would've been no Mito Pereira meltdown because he'd have been a long way behind Smith, who led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green.
Having been the best iron player in the field for the Masters, Smith has missed a couple of big chances already this year and I'm not at all concerned by his US Open missed cut. That event just does not look right for him, not when set-up like Brookline was, and it's no coincidence that his one standout finish in it came when Chambers Bay was wide and firm in 2015.
My view is that as well as benefitting from some space, he's best when there are ample opportunities to score. To my mind, Smith is more likely to throw in a big number than any other member of the world's top 10, but also more likely to string together six or seven birdies and recover. Perhaps that's why he so enjoys the risk-reward nature of Augusta, and why he carded a field-leading 24 birdies when the odd snap hook from the tee almost derailed him at Sawgrass this year.
Speaking of Augusta, there are strong correlations with the Old Course through all the recent winners here and those who've come closest. These two famous courses might look very different, but they both require artistry, shot-shaping, an ability to handle hanging lies and to play a chip shot off banks and back-stops. Those who play well at Augusta so often tend to play well here, and that's partly why I expect Smith to love St Andrews. Another reason is that his typical miss is left, and the saying goes that a left miss is best here, with all trouble to the right.
As for his Open record, he was fifth at halfway at Portrush when outside the world's top 40, and ninth through 54 holes last year having just crept inside the top 30. Now firmly established among the game's elite and arriving on the back of a lovely preparation at The Renaissance, where he played really well for three of the four rounds to finish 10th, he looks primed to finish the job having let two very good opportunities slip in just three majors so far this year.
Of those above Smith in the betting, red-hot Xander Schauffele will surprise me if he can effectively make it four wins in a row, having won the Travelers and the Scottish Open either side of a high-class JP McManus Pro-Am. He boasts a fine Open record and is at the top of his game, but I disagree firmly with the idea that he belongs above Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas in the betting and can't see any value whatsoever in the price.
Thomas, who is upwards of 25/1 on the exchanges at the time of writing, would get my vote among that group and along similar lines, I can't quite believe he's five points bigger than Jordan Spieth. These small disagreements with the perceived hierarchy might seem churlish and I wouldn't be one to underestimate Spieth for a second, but it would've been unthinkable as recently as June that none of Rahm, Scheffler or Thomas could crack the top three in the market here and it has something of an upside-down feel to it.
Again though, I'd rather speculate a little more in the Open and one way of doing so is to back two-time major champion DUSTIN JOHNSON at as big as 40/1 in places, with 33/1 and bigger well worth taking.
We all know by now that he's currently suspended from the PGA Tour and there's a very strong argument that, at 38, his decisions in recent months indicate a player happy with his lot. Time may well prove that to be true, but if I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt then an Open at St Andrews seems the right place to do so.
Johnson has an eye-catching record here, first fading from seventh through 54 holes to 14th on his 2010 debut, then when leading after rounds one and two in 2015 only to plummet to 49th. Remember, though, these two appearances came after two of the most chastening experiences of his career – a final-round 82 at Pebble Beach, and a final-hole three-putt at Chambers Bay.
Returning for a third crack, the negatives this time concern a potential lack of competitive sharpness, but let's not forget he did finish a solid 24th in the US Open last month. Crucially to my mind, that tournament saw Johnson drive the ball well and hit good approaches, with his final strokes-gained ball-striking figure the second best he's produced since his last win in February 2021.
Before it he was eighth at Centurion and he's subsequently been fourth in Portland, and while these were not strong tournaments, they do help support the idea that he might not be far away. Remember he was 12th in the Masters, ninth in The PLAYERS and fourth in the WGC-Match Play in the spring so there's some high-class form to call upon, too, for all we do require another step forward.
"I feel like the game is definitely trending in the right direction," he said a fortnight ago. "It has been for a while. I'm starting to see a lot more consistency kind of throughout the whole bag.
"The biggest thing for me is the wedges have started to come around. Anytime I feel like I've got a wedge from the fairway I'm going to hit it close. Unfortunately today I just didn't drive it in the fairway enough, but when I was in the fairway and had wedges, I knocked the flag down and gave myself good opportunities.
"I think that's the biggest thing for me, which is the thing that I'm the most kind of excited about or looking forward to is my wedge game is finally back to where I feel like it should be, and then the rest of the game is starting to kick in, too."
If we take him at his word, Johnson is close and there's no doubt his credentials for a firm, fast Open Championship, where power will help and strong wedge play is a must, are strong. That runner-up finish at Chambers Bay, his Whistling Straits heartache, Royal St George's in 2011... there's so much in his back catalogue which speaks to the idea of Johnson as an Open champion, and specifically at the Old Course.
Given those Augusta ties touched upon earlier and the fact he's on offer at such prices, Johnson – whose spring slump might have had something to do with his wedding – looks worth chancing. I feel certain he's still capable of contending for majors and there are few players in this era who I believe could overcome a lack of proper tournament golf like he might be able to.
Same old faces at the Old Course?
Brooks Koepka's profile is similar and he's so effective at the Old Course that a second glance is only natural. However, he also brings fitness concerns to the table and, unlike Johnson, I'm not sure he's entirely at peace with the direction he's chosen to take both for himself and his brother, Chase.
Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry boast perhaps the most robust Old Course credentials from the Dunhill Links and were shortlisted accordingly. Fleetwood though is almost half the price he was for the Scottish Open which makes him easy to ignore while Lowry is just a hair shorter than I'd like.
With up to 14 places to go at he'll surely give backers a run, but he's priced as equivalent to Thomas and he simply isn't that, not even if we make allowances for this kind of golf.
Instead then I'll return to TONY FINAU, who might reward faith in the majors having clearly upped his game from May onwards.
Finau was disappointing at the US Open last month, but otherwise has barely missed a beat since finishing second to Rahm in Mexico, where he was by some distance the best player in the field from tee-to-green. Two more top-fives have followed, including when runner-up to McIlroy in Canada, and last time we saw him he was 13th in the Travelers when carrying a cold putter.
Generally, that club has picked up following a bad start to the year but it's around the green where the real encouragement lies. Finau – who is inside the top 20 both off the tee and with his approaches this season and therefore one of the very best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour – is also on his way towards a sixth successive season of positive short-game numbers, and it's an area of his game which is so easy to underestimate.
Coupled with his shot-shaping he's very much one of the more creative players on the circuit and it's no surprise he's taken to the Old Course in the Dunhill Links, where two appearances have yielded as many top-10s. His best competitive round at St Andrews is 66 and while he ranks it third on his list of favourite Open Championship courses, it was clear when speaking to journalists over the weekend just how much he loves this week's venue.
Another Augusta specialist, Finau's Open record reads just as well with five cuts made in five and nothing worse than 27th. However you dress it that's a serious return and there were signs in Canada that his victory in The Northern Trust last year ought to help when it comes to seeing things through to the end.
Masters champion rates each-way value
I will admit to having gone back and forth on the following selection but HIDEKI MATSUYAMA is too big in the betting to ignore at around the same price as Finau.
Had he not played the Scottish Open, we'd be able to focus on a Masters champion with plenty of links form, an excellent short-game and two top-fives in his last three starts, including at the US Open. Both were powered by his trademark iron play although that does him a disservice – Matsuyama's numbers at the Byron Nelson and at Brookline rank among the best performances of his career in strokes-gained approach terms.
Matsuyama of course did play at the Renaissance and was poor, but the two contributing factors are fairly easy to forgive. For starters he was poor around the green, but like Finau that's generally been a reliable, underrated aspect of his game, and one week tells us far less than the previous 10 years do. Secondly, he drove it badly, but I remember watching aghast as he hit the ball everywhere one week before the 2021 Masters, which he went on to win.
That's Matsuyama, whose driver comes and goes, and there's a good chance he can quickly find the remedy at a course which may be more suitable. He hadn't played the Renaissance before, whereas one previous visit to St Andrews saw him finish a solid 18th in the summer of 2015, his second-round 66 the best of the day. Matsuyama played the front-nine in 14-under for the week but couldn't quite master the back-nine, yet there was clear promise in one of a handful of strong Open displays.
Again we're talking about a player with an outstanding record at Augusta, where he became Masters champion last spring, and since then he's won a couple more times to demonstrate how confident he is once more. Throw in the fact that he was sixth at a baked Muirfield in 2013 and contended at a low-scoring Birkdale in 2017, and there's enough in his profile to suggest he could emulate Woods, Nicklaus and Johnson by securing a famous double.
Mindset makes for Max appeal
While most analysis centres around the tangibles, like scrambling skills and links form, attitude is a massive factor in the Open. It's to some extent why I think Thomas will likely have his time in this tournament, why Lowry was able to ride a tide of support, why Spieth has come alive on the links, and why Collin Morikawa was able to make history in winning the Claret Jug on his first go.
Attitude then is one of the hidden positives in the case for MAX HOMA, whose swing is a thing of beauty and whose form stands up to close scrutiny.
By now most keen followers of golf will know that Homa surprised everyone last Friday night when, after his second round in the Scottish Open, he headed to North Berwick to play another 18 holes in the evening. Some would call it madness, but it's clear that Homa's love for the sport which also happens to represent his livelihood trumps the advice of physios.
"Yeah, it's a bucket list golf course, and I never play 36 holes a day during a tournament week but for North Berwick, I had to," he explained. "I saw it on a video back in the day and I've been wanting to go for years. Very, very fortunate to have Scott take me out, the pro over there. It was a blast."
But it's what he said next which really piqued by interest, when asked to explain why he enjoys links golf.
"I love it. There's obviously amazing golf courses in the US. This style of golf, I think some people can enjoy more. I enjoy it more. I just like playing the ball along the ground. I like the conditions. I like stuff like that. There's obviously a lot of good both sides.
"It's just different and it's really good over here, get to see what we are going to have to do for next week. That's why playing North Berwick was so good because it's more so like St Andrews than Renaissance is. It was cool to get to experience two different links-stye golf courses, playing when it's firm and fast. I think it's enjoyable to play."
Homa then was perhaps doing his homework as much as anything and it all adds to my belief that he's finally understanding he is good enough to contend for majors. It has been the one thing lacking in what's developed into a fine career, but 13th place in the PGA Championship, despite not being at his best, might just prove to be a turning point as he hones in on playing team golf for the USA again.
That theory didn't work out at the US Open but Homa played well enough (12th in SG tee-to-green) to have been a factor there only to produce one of his worst ever putting performances. That's something he did in last year's BMW Championship before winning on his very next start, and there's no doubt his entire short-game is generally a strength.
We saw his putting improve for 16th place in the Scottish Open where nobody drove the ball better and while his iron play was strangely poor, he'd gained strokes in every start dating back to January's Tournament of Champions. In other words, that tenet of his game could soon return and with everything else firing again, and everything he says about links golf, things might just come together at St Andrews this week.
Homa played well enough in last year's Open when well below the form he's been showing throughout 2022, and at a similar price to last month's US Open I'm very keen to give him another chance.
Who is the best longshot for the Open?
Outsiders of interest include the big-hitting Wyndham Clark, who said before the Scottish Open that he loves links golf and went on to show it, finishing 14th. His often poor iron play was a real strength and if he can keep it going for his second week in Scotland, he might be the sort of young powerhouse capable of muscling in on the leaderboard.
Thriston Lawrence is also worth a mention as a bang in-form South African whose stellar amateur career includes a Lytham Trophy. He's got a bit of Old Course experience in the Dunhill Links, including a round of 66, and returns for his major debut as a rapidly-improving 25-year-old with echoes of Oosthuizen about him.
I've touched upon Keith Mitchell's fascinating ties to St Andrews in my player-by-player guide and he's another of some interest along with fellow Honda Classic performer Aaron Wise, but my final selection ultimately came down to Adam Scott and PATRICK REED.
Scott loves it here and could've won the Open in 2015. His form of late is improving, reports from practice in Ireland have been close to bullish, and age is no barrier in the major won by four 40-somethings since 2011. He could well build on a good US Open and has to be respected, but preference is for the man I believe would be significantly more reliable come crunch time on Sunday.
At risk of labouring the point, Reed is of course another Masters champion but what I like most is his short-game, which is the envy of many and particularly from tight lies around the green. It's the one thing that remains excellent, too, and has done throughout a quiet year which saw him play some wretched golf in the spring before things slowly began to turn around.
Third place in Portland last time out is certainly not proof that he's solved all his issues but it was another welcome step forward and he'd been showing signs on the PGA Tour beforehand. His driving for instance was fine away from the US PGA, his approach play was genuinely excellent there and good the following week when he finished seventh, and he was making cuts despite putting modestly for the most part.
Now he comes to St Andrews, where a third-round 67 helped him to finish 20th back in 2015, and it's a course which really should suit a player who at his best is most effective the closer he gets to the green. A little extra space off the tee certainly helps and while his overall form is clearly patchy, note that he has made all three cuts in the majors this year and 11 of his last 12 overall, and seven of these have ended in top-20 finishes.
His Open record includes 12th at Troon and 10th at Portrush, his best US Open performance came when fourth on a leaderboard packed with links players at a baked Shinnecock, and the firm, fast conditions of the Old Course are exactly what he needs to compete with the bigger hitters. If he's able to take another step forward there's no reason he can't feature here and threaten the places at three-figure prices.
Posted at 0920 BST on 12/07/22
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