Golf expert Ben Coley combs through the specials markets ahead of the 150th Open Championship, and makes Henrik Stenson to beat Alex Bjork his best bet.
Golf betting tips: The Open Championship specials
3pts Henrik Stenson to be the top Swedish player at 10/11 (Coral)
2pts Louis Oosthuizen to be the top South African at 5/2 (General)
1pt e.w. Thriston Lawrence to be the top South African at 12/1 (Sky Bet, Coral 1/4 1,2,3)
Best bets in the top player markets
Last month's US Open saw two players with contrasting major records thrown together in an effective match because of their nationalities and then priced as equals, as Robert MacIntyre proved much too good for Russell Knox. That's the nature of these markets – bookmakers don't control the who element as they do in 72-hole matches, and I do think they occasionally miscalculate based on player ratings which don't always translate from week-to-week to majors.
Confidence in HENRIK STENSON wouldn't be quite so high as it was in MacIntyre, as reflected in the staking plan above, but he's entitled to be a strong favourite against Alex Bjork and my view is that anyone pricing this as an each-of-two has it wrong.
Bjork has played in five majors, and he's yet to make a cut. He's not been close, either: 107th at halfway at Portrush, 118th at Carnoustie, 99th at Birkdale; 147th in the 2019 PGA Championship, 125th in the same event a year earlier. Never has he threatened to so much as make the weekend in a major, and all of these came when he was a better player than he is now.
Could he at some stage make a cut? Yes, of course, but St Andrews wouldn't be an obvious fit – he averages 70.75 in the far easier Dunhill Links, and his short, crooked driving is problematic. If he's not hacking out of rough he may well be chipping sideways out of bunkers and he is simply nowhere near as efficient with his tee shots as the only other Swedish player in this tournament.
No, Stenson isn't the player he was either, but his scoring average here is nevertheless significant because it's both lower than Bjork's, and based on performances under tougher conditions in the Open rather than the Dunhill Links. He was third here in 2010, made the cut in 2015, and then became a major champion at Troon a year later. Whereas Bjork lacks proper links form, Stenson has it in abundance.
Stenson has also played a bit better lately, particularly when finishing second in the Scandinavian Mixed, and while behind Bjork last week, he suffered the worst of the draw whereas his younger compatriot got the best of it. Flip those tee-times and you might well flip the result, but the bigger point here is that the Scottish Open is not a major, and that where these two are concerned we should absolutely view majors differently.
Stenson has finished 11th, 35th and 20th in the Open during the years which saw Bjork shoot big numbers and depart early. He beat him at Bellerive and at Bethpage in the US PGA. And, if Bjork struggles as I expect him to, Stenson will probably beat him again here, too.
The other top nationalities market I like concerns the South Africans, although I will confess that having originally been very sweet on THRISTON LAWRENCE at the price, I now feel compelled to take two against the field – including the favourite, LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN.
Given we're without Branden Grace and Charl Schwartzel, and that several others here are badly out of form, the recent upturn shown by Oosthuizen entitles him to be a stronger favourite than he is. In two Open appearances here, nobody has beaten him over 72 holes, and while his form at the start of the year raised serious concerns, he did improve on a poor record at Eichenried to finish eighth there before fifth place in a LIV event.
In fact the only thing we need to forgive is a first-round 77 at the US Open and he becomes rock-solid so rather than trying to get him beaten, I'm going to advise banking on Oosthuizen's superb major record and his fondness for St Andrews, with Lawrence in as a supplementary wager.
The latter won the Lytham Trophy during a fine amateur career and has really impressed on the DP World Tour this season, for all his Joburg Open win was fortuitous. He was third in the Irish Open a fortnight ago before another strong performance in Scotland, and just like Oosthuizen in 2010 he arrives here knowing he can score at the Old Course having done so in the Dunhill Links and with his driver in full flow.
Lawrence is lacking in experience – this is his major championship debut – but ought to be full of confidence so I'm very hopeful he can outperform most of his compatriots and perhaps even the one who, the closer I look, deserves to head the betting. Splitting stakes between the two gives us a strong hand and a realistic chance of collecting both win and place money.
Posted at 2030 BST on 12/07/22
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