Golf betting tips: Ben Coley's The Northern Trust preview
Ben Coley's PGA Tour tips have been flying this summer - don't miss his take on The Northern Trust as the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin.
Recommended bets: The Northern Trust
Click here for our transparent tipping record
With Liberty National preparing to host the Presidents Cup, Glen Oaks Golf Club gets the chance to host its first PGA Tour event as the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin on Long Island.
Often, when we head to New York or New Jersey, we know what to expect: large-scale, roughed-up golf courses, so often designed by AW Tillinghast or at least sprinkled with his influence, usually set up with the aim of hosting a US Open.
Glen Oaks is different. This exclusive club reportedly has no such major ambitions and they've ignored the brutalist charms of Bethpage, despite bringing highly-rated superintendent Craig Currier across from the 2002 and 2009 US Open venue to spearhead their revamp soon after Lucas Glover had won the latter renewal.
Currier was the driving force behind the transformation of Bethpage Black, which was rewarded with two majors inside a decade, but perhaps the most important part of his history is that he spent 1995 and 1996 at Augusta National.
Looking at pictures, it seems clear that Glen Oaks has been inspired by those years and Currier, while understandably keen not to admit to a full-scale copycat mission, did confess to the New York Post that some visual aspects, including bunkering, could be called similar.
"Architecture is kind of like painting - you can have 20 people go to the art museum and look at the same painting and certain people will have various opinions," added head pro Tim Shifflett. "You know, Bethpage Black is a great golf course, but it's a big, rugged look and it really fits that property. We feel that very manicured, elegant look, that's what was best for us."
The few professionals to have been on an early scouting mission appear to be unanimous: Glen Oaks really is a beautiful golf course, and once again Currier has done a stunning job. Charles Howell III simply called it "phenomenal"; Danny Lee hailed a well-manicured, "long and tight" track while William McGirt drew comparisons to Ridgewood, a former host venue of this event, adding that Glen Oaks is in "great condition".
At 7,350 yards on the scorecard and a par 70, Glen Oaks can also be called extremely long - one of two par-fives tops 600 yards, and just one of the par-fours comes in at under 400. Although a consequence of the landscape rather than an intended homage to Augusta, elevation changes and sweeping views across several holes are a feature, along with bright white bunkers and tree-lined fairways - despite the damage two hurricanes have caused.
When you think of long, tree-lined, par-70 courses you think of Firestone, while Golf Channel's Will Gray, who has played the course, told me that it reminded him somewhat of Muirfield Village, home of the Memorial Tournament. There's a lot of guesswork attached to previewing an event on a totally new golf course, but perhaps Firestone, Muirfield Village, Augusta and Ridgewood will prove handy form pointers as the week progresses.
And now to the field. It is, as you'd expect, exceptionally strong. The 120 players set to tee up have had to earn their places and only one of the world's top 10 isn't in attendance as Sergio Garcia opts to take a break. The other notable absentee is former winner Adam Scott, who is done for the PGA Tour season, but otherwise this is an elite list and, as you'd expect, a top-heavy market.
Hideki Matsuyama probably deserves favouritism given the six titles he's won since this event last year, but picking between him, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas and Henrik Stenson isn't easy.
McIlroy might even shade my vote as he's more than twice the price he started the PGA Championship, where he finished inside the top 30 don't forget, and he brings form from all those courses mentioned to the table. At 16/1, odds we rarely see beside his name, it could pay to remember that last year's equally frustrating PGA Tour campaign ended in two Playoff wins and an US$11million bonus.
That being said, I'd rather keep things a little more speculative given all the unknowns and start with Patrick Reed.
A year ago, Reed ended a lengthy winless run in this tournament, producing the sort of brave performance we've come to expect from him under pressure.
What's especially interesting about the timing of the win is that Reed entered the final week of Ryder Cup qualifying in the final qualifying place. He knew, in other words, that he needed to perform to make absolutely sure of a place on the team.
"At the end of the day, if I go and I take care of me and do what I need to do this week, then Ryder Cup will take care of itself," he said early in the tournament, which he led after three of the four rounds. From an opening 66 to a closing 70, Reed was under the spotlight but totally comfortable, in control of whether or not he made that Ryder Cup side.
One year on and the comparisons are clear. Once more, it's been a very solid but equally frustrating year, one bad shot here or there costing him the chance to win. And once more, he's right on the bubble when it comes to qualifying for a team event - this time the Presidents Cup, in which he was disappointing two years ago and will doubtless therefore be keen to make amends.
You know as well as I do that he'll be selected as a wild card regardless, but that was also the case a year ago yet the Texan wanted to take care of business for himself. There's absolutely no doubt that his sensational performance at Hazeltine, capped by that Sunday singles win over McIlroy, can be traced back to the way he hauled himself over the line at Bethpage.
Last time out, Reed tied for second for his best major performance in the PGA Championship, after which he said: "I couldn't care less if I finished second or 50th. I play to win." Again, that's almost a carbon copy of a line from his comments prior to this event in 2016, when he confessed: "It's been frustrating. We all enter these golf tournaments to win golf tournaments. We're not showing up just to make cuts and slide by."
To my mind, Reed looks a prime candidate to emulate Rory and end a stop-start year by landing the jackpot over the next few weeks and he could start that here, defending his title on a new golf course which he's got the ability to adjust to immediately.
Reed's record defending titles is strong - he's never been worse than 24th in four attempts, and almost won back-to-back renewals of the Tournament of Champions only to finish second - and with form at Firestone and Muirfield Village in the bag, he looks a solid alternative to the better-fancied runners, few of whom are more prolific.
While The Northern Trust (formerly The Barclays) has thrown up some strange names in the top five and a totally shock winner in Heath Slocum eight years ago, Reed was the seventh successive high-class winner, every one of them either a Presidents or Ryder Cup player in their own right.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, four of these winners had gone really well at the PGA Championship in their previous start, finishing inside the top 10. Given that the schedule was different owing to golf's return to the Olympics last year, that's actually four from six so a close look at the PGA Championship leaderboard is as good a starting point as any.
That makes in-form Matt Kuchar interesting in an event he's won before, but at a bigger price I prefer the claims of Louis Oosthuizen given the potential for this event to favour big-hitters.
Oosthuizen completed a career grand slam of runner-up finishes in the majors as he shared second with Reed at Quail Hollow, and that's further proof of how big-time he is despite so often proving frustrating.
Indeed, his other runner-up finish this year came at the PLAYERS Championship, so while it's 18 months since he last won and seven years since his sole success at the very highest level, Oosthuizen has continued to be a factor in elite company.
That much is demonstrated by his record in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Oosthuizen has eight top-20 finishes from nine starts in the three events prior to East Lake, including fifth in this and second in the Deutsche Bank, and on the back of that effort at Quail Hollow it seems reasonable to expect another strong run.
Also noteworthy is the fact that he has won immediately after one of these major near-misses, albeit again in modest company out in Malaysia, while he's been second at Augusta and fourth at Firestone to tick those correlating course boxes.
Oosthuizen ranked second in strokes-gained tee-to-green in the PGA Championship where he also putted better than the field average every day, so if able to pick up where he left off rates a big player in his bid to finally win on US soil.
While Oosthuizen is already secure on the International Presidents Cup team, Ryan Moore needs to produce right now if he's to earn a debut for the United States.
Moore will at least understand better than most how quickly things can change at this time of year, as a run of three top-10s in the 2016 Playoffs saw him selected for the Ryder Cup, where he would go on to hole the winning putt.
It's been slow progress since, but he has really clicked of late, striking the ball beautifully three events in succession for a trio of top-30 finishes, including 13th place in the PGA Championship where he putted poorly throughout.
That was also the case at the Wyndham last week, but Moore was still able to finish 24th and as one of the favourites there, it might be an overreaction that he's out to 100/1 across the board.
Granted, this is a big golf course and he's all about accuracy, but that was the case as he produced a top-10 finish at Bethpage last year and this all-rounder can adapt to the test.
Moore has been runner-up at Muirfield Village, eighth at Firestone and ninth at Augusta, while last year's play-off defeat to McIlroy at the TOUR Championship came on another long par 70, albeit one which still tends to favour those who can keep the ball in play off the tee.
Still, that could yet be the case here at Glen Oaks and given the high-class correlating form he boasts, plus the tee-to-green control he's exuded throughout August, Moore looks set for a solid week and a push towards that Presidents Cup side.
Ollie Schiederjans almost did the job for us at 80/1 last week and is tempting at 100s here, given that for once he doesn't concede an experience edge to his rivals and clearly found something with the putter at the Wyndham.
However, the difference between his performance and that of Moore really was just a putt here or there, and that only underlines why Moore is overpriced as a consequence of a few short ones going amiss. It's perfectly conceivable that they drop this week.
Ball-strikers do tend to make the best punting propositions when we head to a new course and that puts Kevin Chappell on the radar.
Another who is vying for a Presidents Cup place thanks to his breakthrough win in Texas earlier this year, Chappell has been in good form since and contended in Canada before solid weeks in both the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and the PGA Championship.
As can happen, Chappell's bid for a first major was undone by some extremely poor putting in the PGA, but it was basically confined to round two and otherwise he made enough to stay competitive if his tee-to-green game remains strong.
His record in this event is very solid and includes contending at Ridgewood, the course McGirt said Glen Oaks reminded him of, while Chappell has also been seventh at Augusta, third and 13th at Firestone, and runner-up at Muirfield Village.
Throw in other strong performances at the classical Congressional and at East Lake last year, and there are plenty of clues that Chappell could take to this place at the first time of asking.
Gary Woodland continues to catch the eye and will be buoyed by some good news at home, with his young son now out of hospital. He's also a good friend of PGA winner Justin Thomas and has plenty of form in this event, so watch for him going well.
Alas, 80/1 feels like the right sort of price and the same goes for the 150/1 offered about Keegan Bradley, who has been first and second at Firestone, played this course in his college days at St John's, and continues to stripe it.
Bradley could go well if putting doesn't prove to be the decisive factor, as could Canada's Graham DeLaet on the back of seventh place in the PGA, but I'll take a chance with Bubba Watson at a three-figure price.
At 34th in the Presidents Cup standings, Bubba really needs to win to get into the side and all that we know about him suggests he'll be fully focused with a team golf place on the line.
Remember, this is the player whose response to losing a play-off for the PGA Championship in 2010 was "did I make the Ryder Cup?", and who was so keen to be part of last year's side that he took a controversial non-playing role, basically acting as cheerleader.
That can only have fuelled his desire to get back in the red, white and blue colours and while his golf this year has not been of the required standard, one big week at the right time could be enough.
"Form is getting better. Putting with the new putter is great. So everything is good," Watson said at the Open, where he produced an uncharacteristic top-30 in an event which he really doesn't enjoy. Asked what the goal was, he added: "Trying to move up the FedEx Cup, somehow win tournaments, so I can jump on that Presidents Cup team."
Since Birkdale, Bubba's prospects have taken another blow with a missed cut in the PGA, but prior to that he played nicely for a top-20 finish at Firestone, making ground on the field with the putter just as he had in Canada one week earlier.
It's only nine starts since he last had a genuine chance to win and that came at Muirfield Village, where he has two top-six finishes in the last three years. Given that we know Bubba loves Augusta (two wins) and Firestone (runner-up) and has also played well at Ridgewood, that means he ticks all of the boxes when it comes to potential course pointers.
One final factor is that never mind the Presidents Cup, Watson needs to play well to make event two of the Playoffs as he currently sits 113th in the standings. A year ago, five players jumped inside the top 100 in this event, which is the requirement to keep going, and Watson's class could enable him to do just that.
Of course, there are negatives - Bubba's form since shedding weight and changing golf ball has been more down than up - but we're talking about a fully motivated two-time major champion here. Odds of 125/1 are well worth taking.
Posted at 1145 BST on 22/08/17.
Related links
Sky Bet - paying six places on The Northern Trust
Ben Coley's preview of the Made In Denmark