Russell Henley

The Masters at Augusta National: Specials preview and tips from Ben Coley

Golf

Thu April 05, 2018 · 7y ago

Ben Coley bagged a 100/1 winner on day one of the 2017 Masters, so don't miss his attempts to double up as the season's first men's major championship begins on Thursday.

Recommended bets

1pt e.w. Russell Henley to lead after round one at 90/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Jimmy Walker to lead after round one at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

5pts Paul Casey to beat Bubba Watson at evens

2pts Adam Scott to be the top Australian player at 4/1

2.5pts Ryan Moore to finish in the top 20 at 3/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

First-round leader

Charley Hoffman stormed to the first-round lead in the 2017 Masters and it could pay to follow a similar formula one year on, with Russell Henley taken to produce the sub-70 round needed to hit the frame.

The formula with Hoffman was so very simple, despite his price of 100/1. A habitual fast starter who was inside the top 20 on the PGA Tour for first-round scoring at the end of the previous season, he'd pinged the lids at Bay Hill on his penultimate start prior to Augusta, where he'd also hit the frame in this market on one of three previous visits.

Henley was fourth after round one in last year's Masters, ended last season ranked eighth in first-round scoring average and boasts a similarly solid Augusta record to Hoffman. He also warmed up with a solid title defence in Houston last week, gaining momentum on Sunday with a closing 65, and as well as sitting fourth after Thursday's play in 2017, he was sixth after the first round of his previous visit having carded a round of 68 - a figure which almost always guarantees a return.

A Georgia native whose form figures here are progressive, Henley's hot hand with the putter is taken to carry him towards the top of the leaderboard at a course where six of his last eight rounds have been par or better. Available at 80/1 generally, he looks the pick of the each-way value.

Marc Leishman is another to consider, having led after the first round here in 2013 and sat fifth in 2015, and his first-round scoring stats have been encouraging for some time. In fact, when he was at the top of his game towards the end of last year and the start of this, the Australian enjoyed a seven-tournament stretch where he led twice and went close on three further occasions.

It's not uncommon for players to produce these bursts of fast starts. In fact, if we look back at leaders of the Masters, so many of them had been marking our cards for a while. This applies not only to the big names who've led here of late - Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia - but the likes of Bill Haas, who had led after round one in Houston just seven days prior to doing it at Augusta.

With that in mind, Bryson DeChambeau and Jimmy Walker both make some appeal with the latter favoured at the prices.

DeChambeau was fourth at the first round at Bay Hill last time, his final start prior to Augusta, before leading at halfway. That's almost identical to the preparation Hoffman enjoyed a year ago, while we don't have to rewind much further to get to DeChambeau's second after the opening round in Phoenix.

However, preference is for Walker, who has never missed a cut at Augusta and, while unable it seems to piece four rounds together anywhere at the moment, has been inside the top five after the opening round on each of his last two starts.

Walker's last three first-round leads have come in elite company at the WGC-Mexico last year, the 2017 Tournament of Champions and the 2016 PGA Championship, the major he went on to win, and while yet to break 70 at Augusta he was fifth here after the opening round in 2014 having shot 70, while a Thursday 71 in 2016 saw him finish just outside the places.

It's likely that Walker will need to produce his best Augusta round to land us a 100/1 winner, but that's exactly what Hoffman did last year and the 39-year-old is taken to get off to a fast start for the third event in succession.

Tournament match bets

There are few players towards the top of the Masters market I'm keen to take on, but Bubba Watson is a noted exception and Paul Casey looks a smashing bet at evens to beat the left-hander this week, a price on offer with bet365 with Sky Bet quoting 5/6.

Bubba has what Casey would of course love - not one but two green jackets - yet on the seven occasions they've both played in the Masters, only once has Watson finished ahead of the Englishman.

The head-to-head score shows five Casey wins, one tie, one win for Bubba. On each of the last two occasions they've both made the cut, Casey has won by 10 shots; last year, he sailed through to the weekend while Watson packed his bags early.

This is an example of how the outright market and match bets do not always serve each other. Some players are of interest in one and not the other, and it's fairly easy to argue that Watson, as a major champion, may be more likely to go ahead and win this event than the less-than-prolific Casey.

However, when it comes to which of the duo is most likely to play solid golf this week, Casey is overwhelmingly preferred. He's not missed a cut since January 2017, arrives at the top of his game, and has finished in front of Bubba in 15 of the last 20 events they've both played.

Patrick Reed is the same price in places to beat Tommy Fleetwood, which is tempting after the latter struggled here a year ago, while those looking for a trixie should consider Henrik Stenson to beat compatriot Alex Noren, which can be found as a match bet or top Swedish player.

Noren has been playing beautifully, but Augusta could be a problem for a player who hits the ball almost exclusively left-to-right and missed the cut here on his debut. Stenson's record is often talked about as poor but he's finished inside the top 25 on four of his last five visits, which might well be enough here.

Paul Casey can outperform Bubba Watson this week

Top nationalities

There are relatively few nationalities represented this year but Adam Scott is value to be the pick of four Australians at 4/1.

The 2013 champion is the only man from Down Under ever to have donned a green jacket and while he's not in that sort of form now, the same was true last year when he was the pick of the Aussies in ninth.

Granted, Jason Day has since returned to form, Cameron Smith has confirmed his potential and Marc Leishman played the best golf of his life towards the end of 2017, but none have outperformed Scott here on a consistent basis and his ball-striking and course knowledge both count for plenty.

Scott has finished ahead of Day four times in seven Augusta head-to-heads and he's beaten Leishman on all five occasions they've both teed it up here. With Smith making his second start having finished a lowly 55th on debut, it's Scott who is much preferred having shown some encouraging signs in two of his last three starts.

Yuxin Lin is a talented youngster who could prove value at 4/1 to be the top Chinese player, given that sole rival Hao-tong Li appears to be struggling a little of late, while fellow amateur Joaquin Niemann has the game to outscore Jhonattan Vegas and Angel Cabrera in the top South American betting.

Niemann is worth considering at 13/8 to be the pick of six amateurs, too. The world number one has experience playing in good company and looks the standout.

Top 20 finish

Plenty of options to go at here, but the standout looks to be Ryan Moore if you're able to take the 3/1 offered by a number of firms.

Moore has finished clearly inside the top 20 (i.e. no dead-heats) four times from nine Augusta starts including two of the last three, and the strength of his iron play recently (second for GIR at the Arnold Palmer, first at the Honda) suggests he is in for another good week at a course he knows and loves.

His top-20 return this season is four from eight and at 20 from the last 50 events he's played or 41 from the last 100, his numbers are consistent - just as we'd expect given the profile of the player. On balance, the 3/1 quoted is a good point bigger than it should be.

Posted 1225 BST on 03/04/18.