The Masters Tournament at Augusta National: Betting preview & tips from Ben Coley
Golf expert Ben Coley previews the 82nd Masters Tournament, which gets under way on Thursday at Augusta National.
Recommended bets
3pts e.w. Justin Thomas at 10/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 35/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Louis Oosthuizen at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Kevin Chappell at 150/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Everything about the Masters build-up says this is among the most eagerly anticipated renewal in memory. It's 11/1 the field, there are 11 players shorter in the betting than the defending champion, and there are possibilities such as Tiger Woods winning a major championship again or Rory McIlroy completing his career grand slam.
Neither would've appeared likely six or eight months ago, as Tiger struggled to get out of bed following spinal fusion surgery and McIlroy called time on his season owing to a troublesome rib. Yet here we are in the first week of April, Rory 11/1 and Tiger 14s, both names jostling for position at the front of a crowded and competitive market.
World number one Dustin Johnson has been quiet by some measures, but won his first start of 2018 in a canter from Jon Rahm, the Spaniard who has lifted four trophies in little more than 18 months as a professional. Justin Thomas is close to usurping DJ as number one as he wins with greater frequency than any player on the planet. Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson, left-handers who combine for five green jackets, are both back with a bang. So are Jason Day and Paul Casey.
So strong are these players that I've not yet mentioned last year's runner-up, Justin Rose, nor major-winner-in-waiting Rickie Fowler. Henrik Stenson's modest Augusta record means he can be backed at 40/1, the same sort of price quoted about Alex Noren and Tommy Fleetwood as they complete their arrivals at global level. Matt Kuchar, placed again here last year before that famous second in the Open, is a relatively unconsidered 50/1 chance.
And then there's the actual favourite, Jordan Spieth. Rewind five days and, as the so-called Golden Child arrived in Houston desperately in search of something, he could be backed at 16/1. That something having been found with a share of third which ended with what felt like a prescient 20-foot putt, he now heads the market by the slimmest shade from McIlroy. Everything is in place - we're promised a Masters for the ages.
But who wins it? Likely one of the first seven or eight in the betting, none of whom appear to be more likely winners than Justin Thomas, who gets the vote at 10/1 with bumper each-way terms, 11/1 generally or as big as 14/1 via the exchanges.
While every player at the front of the betting has much to recommend but also a question or two to answer, Thomas holds what appear to me to be the most solid credentials. He's playing exceptionally, better than anyone in fact, and is winning tournaments at a strike-rate synonymous with only the very best this sport has produced - it's seven wins in 34 events dating back to the first event of 2017, at better than 20 per cent.
This season's tally is two and might well have been four and there are no signs at all that last season's heroics, which ended with a $10m FedEx Cup windfall, might instigate a downturn which some of those before him have faced. Thomas said after the TOUR Championship that the challenge was to reset his goals and go again and it's one he's clearly overcome with little fuss.
Of those at the top of the sport, his is arguably the most complete game, even if Rory boasts that extra gear when everything does click. Thomas is long, aggressive, makes birdies for fun and is comfortably above-average with the putter. He dominates the par-fives - always a key Augusta pointer - and leads the PGA Tour in birdie percentage on par-fours, a feat he achieved last year, too.
He's also a quick learner who can contend for and win majors. We saw Thomas head into the final round of last year's US Open as favourite only to fail miserably, yet presented with a similar opportunity just a couple of months later via the PGA Championship, he grabbed it with both hands. The swings he produced over the closing holes of that tournament were of a player who expects the best and is capable of achieving it.
When Brooks Koepka benefited from Thomas's struggles to win the US Open, he contended in the Open Championship next time out. When Spieth won his first major here at the Masters, he added the US Open on his next major start. Thomas seems certain to kick on from his own first major and it would surely surprise no one were he to add a second at the very first opportunity having prepared so well for this.
And now to the negative: Augusta National. This is a course they say you have to know inside-out, one which favours some and foxes others; it's a course where some will say that only those who've achieved something previously can be strongly fancied to do so again and this is where Thomas falls down. So far he's played the Masters twice and he's yet to contend - he's also yet to break 70, seen by many as the magic number despite the course's par of 72.
All of this is valid. Thomas does have to prove he can contend at Augusta, whereas every other player right at the front of this market has done so once or more already. It's this which is keeping him from the front of the win-only market, because on a golf course which we could reasonably describe as a level playing field, he would certainly not be as big as 15.0; in fact he'd probably be favourite.
Yet there may be more to his play at Augusta than his finishing positions reveal. Thomas has in fact found the nature and flow of the course fits him perfectly, just as it should, but hasn't yet been able to score quite well enough. Were he to win on Sunday, the US PGA champion would be far from alone in terms of how his first couple of looks at Augusta actually did point to his victory.
Sky Bet's outright odds (10 places)
9/1 - Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy
10/1 - Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas
11/1 - Tiger Woods
12/1 - Justin Rose
14/1 bar, odds correct at 1900 BST on 02/04/18 and subject to change
While we look at the scorecard and the leaderboard for evidence of previous form at the course, which helps explain even some of the surprise champions, the greens in regulation charts have been an equally accurate predictor of future success. Sergio Garcia ranked six a year before winning, Spieth had led when runner-up on debut, Bubba Watson is another who was sixth a year before his first green jacket, Adam Scott likewise, Angel Cabrera had been second, Mike Weir had been third, even Zach Johnson had been 13th.
Trevor Immelman had ranked third for greens on an Augusta visit prior to his winning one, Vijay Singh had ranked second, and Phil Mickelson had been seventh. In fact, every Masters champion since the turn of the century bar Danny Willett and Charl Schwartzel, the two who perhaps most benefited from the actions of others, had at some stage figured very highly for greens hit, the stat which ties together leaderboards here and always has.
What this suggests is that the player in question could return to the course knowing that they had played it better than they'd scored, better than we might assume, and that's a huge positive for Thomas, who ranked 11th for GIR on debut and sixth last year.
This method doesn't rule out many, but it should worry backers of Johnson, who has struggled to hit greens here since his first visit. Fowler and Day, the latter particularly poor with his irons over the last 12 months, also have questions to answer in this regard which Thomas does not.
For all the imponderables this event presents, what previous renewals tell us is that those ranking inside the top five in greens will have outstanding chances to win if they can manage their mistakes. On the strength of his first two visits, his improvement since the second of them, and his form all year, Thomas is firmly expected to be one of those five.
Another point which could be significant is how diligent Thomas has been in his homework. He was at Augusta after the Match Play to get some more experience under the belt, while it was interesting to hear Tiger Woods tell reporters that JT is always at the front of the queue for practice rounds both here and elsewhere. Thomas meanwhile says he tries to play with Augusta pro Jeff Knox (klaxon!) when in town as he seeks to learn where not to miss.
Finally, his preparation has been near perfect. Speaking prior to the Honda Classic that he'd go on to win via the first of two successive play-offs, Thomas said he felt he just needed to get in contention again to establish some momentum. Beating Luke List there before forcing extra holes against Phil Mickelson in Mexico means he's done what he felt he needed to do and more.
As for concerns around the world rankings, which he said were a distraction in the Match Play as he missed the opportunity to go top, I simply don't have any. As he showed in the PGA Championship, Thomas is an extremely quick learner who can draw on mistakes and ensure they are not repeated. Besides which, if he makes the turn on Sunday in contention for a green jacket, I can't imagine that the prospect of reaching world number one will be anywhere near the front of his mind.
Ultimately, I believe Thomas's play over the last year makes him the man to beat, and I expect him to improve on his Masters form and demonstrate that his is an ideal game for Augusta National. Should he do that, he won't be far away and nobody is as good at winning right now.
While JT gets the headline vote, I don't see any great need to make the case against the rest of those at the front of the betting. Each has their chance, and each is well worth considering, but truth be told only Spieth came close to selection alongside Thomas.
Spieth's record here is outstanding - he's led at the conclusion of eight rounds from just 16 played - and he did what he needed to do at Houston last week. As I've said before, he's the best in the sport at priming himself for majors (see: three wins in three seasons) and I wouldn't want to talk anyone out of a bet on the 2015 Masters champion.
If there's anyone who does deserve to be ahead of JT in the market, it's his close friend and I had expected to side with Spieth, only for his performance in the Houston Open to have had more of an impact on his price than hoped. Reluctantly, he's left out of the staking plan as a result but if you want to take a very straightforward approach, backing the pair is a viable option.
Instead, the combination of generous each-way terms and the tendency for this tournament to be won by someone who is both world-class and somehow slightly off the radar leads me towards Hideki Matsuyama at what could be a gift of a price.
Matsuyama went off 12/1 for last year's PGA Championship, an event Thomas won at a remarkable 50/1, and I wonder whether we could see the Japanese do as Thomas did and remind us of the dangers of short-termism in betting with his first major success.
His record at Augusta reads 5-7-11 over the last three years and he's placed in a US Open plus the last two PGA Championships - indeed, for much of the last one it appeared likely that those short prices were going to be justified at Quail Hollow.
All things being equal, he'd have arrived at Augusta among the sub-20/1 collection, but a wrist injury incurred at the Phoenix Open both put an abrupt end to his encouraging start to the season and undermined his preparations for the Masters. Matsuyama was sidelined for over a month and has managed just one stroke play start since, which leaves the risk that he's undercooked.
That has to be taken on board, and he was never in the mix at Bay Hill on his return, but three rounds at the Match Play will have helped speed up his recovery and he showed much better signs in all of them, particularly from tee-to-green. After his victory on Thursday, Matsuyama told reporters, "I really found my game - it was a great day out there" and, much like Spieth last week, it could just be that things have clicked in the nick of time.
Granted, Matsuyama didn't get out of his group in Texas but the combination of match practice and a further two weeks to reach full fitness and finalise his Augusta practice makes him interesting, as a player who has built up that bank of Masters form, who ranked tied-sixth for greens hit last year along with Thomas, and who looks an obvious candidate to become the fourth player in succession to win their first major here.
"There’s something about that special place that really gets me motivated to play the best I can," he told the Augusta Chronicle. "I love Augusta National and enjoy going back there every year. Hopefully through playing there a number of times now I’ve learned what it takes to win. Hopefully my experience I’ve been able to gain will help me learn how to win my first major. I hope it will be there at Augusta."
There is also a flip-side to Matsuyama's low-key preparation. He goes into every major with the weight of a nation on his shoulders, with more media following him than probably every player here bar Tiger, and that has to have affected him from time to time. The media presence will be no less significant this week, but I just wonder whether the 26-year-old will find it easier to keep expectations fairly modest.
There's plenty of speculation involved, but unlike virtually every other player in the field, some doubt is factored into Matsuyama's price. There's simply no way he'd have been as big as 33/1 generally and 40/1 in places if he'd have, say, won one more match in Austin to progress from his group, or made five more birdies at Bay Hill and finished inside the top 15. Had he avoided an unfortunate injury and kept moving in the right direction, we might even have been talking about another candidate for favouritism.
I'm more than willing to take on board some unknowns in exchange for a big price about a player who will surely go close in this event many times over the next decade or so. Matsuyama has been a regular major contender ever since turning professional and I'm hopeful he can reach the frame once more.
Ryan Moore, Jimmy Walker and Gary Woodland are three outsiders for whom a case can be made, while Kuchar looks good at 50/1 if your primary concern is the place part of the wager. Even Stenson comes under consideration despite a modest Augusta record, because it's definitely built into the price and he appears to be peaking at just the right time as he seeks to do a Garcia and win at a course nobody thought suited.
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Want to see what others are backing? Head to the request-a-bet section of their website, where you'll also find some enhanced odds on Ben's specials tips - including Walker or Henley to lead after round one, ties included, at 22/1.
However, Augusta form is undeniably valuable so it's two more quality ball-strikers who complete the staking plan in the shape of Louis Oosthuizen and Kevin Chappell.
Oosthuizen has been largely disappointing this year, but he did show up early on a couple of occasions prior to the Match Play, where he advanced from a group including Jason Day only to bump into a resurgent Ian Poulter. There was certainly no disgrace in losing that last-16 clash and Oosthuizen's game appeared to be in good shape, especially considering how often he does manage to find another gear in the events that matter most.
Indeed, I strongly suspect that the 2010 Open champion is only really engaged when he turns up in majors these days and that's backed up by his now famous grand slam of runner-up finishes, including second to Thomas at last year's PGA Championship. Here at Augusta, he lost a 2012 play-off to Bubba Watson and after struggling to put that behind him a year later, has since built up a solid bank of form with three top-25 finishes in four and no further missed cuts.
All of Oosthuizen's best play in the Masters has been powered by his customary tee-to-green quality and in the hope that a return to this course sparks a return to his best, he looks worth backing at around the 66/1 mark.
As for Chappell, here's another elite ball-striker who was sixth for greens when seventh in the Masters a year ago, a performance which came from nowhere given that he'd been without a top 30 finish in eight events to start 2017.
This time around, he's looked in really good form with all eight starts representing a year-on-year improvement, including three top-10 finishes in stroke play events before a nagging back injury saw him withdraw from his final group game at the Match Play.
Therein lies the concern with backing Chappell and it's hard to know what shape he's in, but the overwhelming probability is that he was taking a precaution and having arrived at Augusta over the weekend, I'm confident enough that we'll soon hear an upbeat bulletin.
There will be those unwilling to take such a risk, but it's more than factored into the price given how much he's improved since last year, including gaining a first PGA Tour win, and how obviously well suited he is to the course.
Plus, Chappell's best performances have so often come in elite events, such as when second at the PLAYERS and in the TOUR Championship to go with third in the US Open and at Firestone, while his putting looks to improve for faster greens, too.
All things considered, he's one of the classiest, most Augusta-positive options among the outsiders and I've long thought him capable of being in the mix with nine holes to go here. Providing the back is not a problem, this could be the year.
Posted at 1900 BST on 02/04/18.