The Masters reaction and analysis after Scottie Scheffler wins Green Jacket at Augusta
Scottie Scheffler was a brilliant winner of a thrilling Masters, which saw Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy also make headlines. Ben Coley picks out five key takeaways.
Antepost very much alive
It's long been said in racing that antepost betting is dead. Bookmakers are less and less inclined to take a view, absent of exchange liquidity; punters to second-guess trainers who wait and wait and wait before committing to a plan. I'm not sure it's quite as stark as that. Maybe it's just best to bet only when a target is clear, rather than try to judge the domino effect of a top-class novice chaser being pointed at x, y or z at the Cheltenham Festival.
In golf, we don't have to worry about targets, and if this year's Masters taught us anything, it might be that building an early portfolio is the best way to prepare for majors, in particular the first one of the year. I've wrongly believed that waiting for bumper places rather than taking a stance in January or February is the right thing to do. It isn't. Extra places don't really pay the bills, for all they're very welcome among four-times-a-year punters. Winners do, and those who are in this for the long-haul should think long-term.
Not always does a golf tournament go to the form book, but the Masters tends to be won by an elite player whose play during the previous three or four months was strong. This year was a dramatic example, the two best PGA Tour players of 2022 dominating for the most part, but it's not an isolated one. Dustin Johnson had struck form following a slump in the summer of 2020. Tiger Woods had been contending again in 2019. In 2018, Patrick Reed arrived on three top-10 finishes, and in 2017, Sergio Garcia had returned to winning ways in the Middle East.
Scottie Scheffler was available at 25/1 during the final of the WGC-Match Play, his last start before Augusta. A fortnight later, punters could almost double the number of places, but for that they had to accept a much shorter price. Scheffler had been 40/1 after winning the Phoenix Open in February, hardened again after winning at Bay Hill, and gradually climbed the market to a Masters-week 16/1.
Cameron Smith also began Masters week at 16/1. With outstanding course form in the bag, his price moved quicker during January's Tournament of Champions win, but punters could still take 33/1 on the back of a career-best triumph over the world number one Jon Rahm. By the time he'd bettered that by winning The PLAYERS, he'd halved in price.
Now, one result doesn't make one price good value. For example I've really no regrets about not putting up Scheffler at 16/1, because to my own eye that felt short. The best way to think about it is that he could've shot a pair of 80s to miss the cut, and those who'd backed him at 40/1 during the Phoenix Open would've been on the right side of the argument. If I regret anything, it's not reacting to what happened in Phoenix, and not being able to forecast what that could lead to.
Whether or not a columnist can marry the realities of publishing content with the reactive speed required to get good prices at good times, I'm not sure. But if you want to turn on the early coverage of the 2023 Masters and feel like you've got outstanding value tucked away, the battle for it might have to begin well ahead of time.
Future uncertain for miraculous Woods
When one day we reflect upon the life and career of Tiger Woods, the post-crash chapter will be coloured by golf, and not by what he did after it. That did not look likely when news of his accident emerged in February 2021. For a few uncertain hours, the life of the best golfer in history appeared under threat. The relief that followed news he was awake and talking was soon replaced by a fear based in reality: that he may never walk again, let alone play.
As the days and weeks went by, playing became possible. Maybe Tiger would be able to enjoy games with his son, Charlie, himself a promising young golfer. That in itself felt like a victory. Then, months after the accident, it became clear that Woods would pursue not just a return to the golf course, but a return to professional golf, which had seemed unthinkable for so long. And, because this is Tiger Woods, we all believed that it was possible.
To then return following more than 500 days away, to shoot an under-par opening round, to comfortably extend his record of never having missed a Masters cut as a professional, was extraordinary. Sometimes, particularly when we switch to the camera behind the 13th tee, Augusta looks like a painting into which golf balls are being fired. Woods' return was part art, part heart: a blend of his golfing virtuosity and the grit which might've made him a Navy SEAL had his early years taken a different path.
I recommend reading Brendan Porath's ode to Tiger's return if you want to return yourself to Thursday, and a day which goes down as one of the finest in a career of absolute brilliance. There are many other fine writers who've taken time to consider that round and those which followed, and I'll seek them out for a warm holiday read. But for the purposes of this column I want to stress that while we're reminded never to underestimate Woods, in some ways this week has confirmed what he had warned: that his days as a touring golfer are gone.
Woods, who looked uncomfortable at times and was unable to bend properly on the greens, never did play a particularly busy schedule, but I wonder just how many times we'll see him from here. Could it be that he only plays majors for as long as he can? Might the next time we see him be the PGA Championship at Southern Hills? Could he even skip that and return at Brookline or St Andrews this summer?
Augusta made a lot of good players look silly as it always does, but for Woods it is a comfortable place. Just as Jack Nicklaus was able to find one more major here in 1986, Woods was able to play on memory; to avoid the mistakes which ruin weeks and to make a cut which, all things being equal (they were not in this case, of course) is a pretty easy cut to make.
Woods' performance was still one of the sporting achievements of the decade. It might prove to be his final gift to us all.
And like that, the Rahm era was gone
When Jon Rahm won the US Open, a fortnight after he'd appeared set to thrash a good field in the Memorial, it was supposed to be the beginning of a lengthy period of dominance. In a strange way I think that's proven to be somewhat true: to hang on to top spot for as long as he did, in this age, was quite impressive and a testament to his consistency.
But really, this idea of one player's domination is one I find hard to buy, even now. Scottie Scheffler has just won four tournaments in six, ascended to the top of the sport, won the Masters... and still I can't convince myself that golf has a new, dominant force. It just doesn't. Indeed, since Rahm won the US Open, I've heard that of Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and now Scheffler. We were also told Dustin Johnson's Masters win would trigger a sequence of majors, but that hasn't happened, either. Dominance is dead.
That doesn't mean Scheffler can't or won't extend this run of his through to the PGA Championship and do what Spieth did, winning back-to-back majors. Brooks Koepka won two in three starts when getting off the mark in 2017, Morikawa won the first and the sixth of that half-a-dozen run of pandemic majors, Rory McIlroy's five came in three years, Jordan's Spieth's three came in little more than two. Scheffler should be right at the top of the betting for the remaining majors this year.
But by the time his Masters defence comes around, would I be sure he'll be the best golfer in the sport? Absolutely not. As Woods discussed, he's hit a spell of golf where everything is working and plenty is going right. The key is to capitalise, and he's done that, taking all four opportunities to win. It's been an extraordinary spring and could yet be a golden summer, but the world will keep turning through autumn and into winter, and who knows what 2023 will bring.
Hovland, we have a problem
Speaking of Hovland, hopefully we can stop pretending his short-game isn't a problem. It will not stop him winning, because we're talking about one of the best ball-strikers to have emerged since Tiger Woods in 1997. Hovland's long-game is simply that good, and it's why he was able to defy poor short-game stats to win in Dubai and Germany. Indeed we only have strokes-gained data for two of his wins, and during both of them he was poor around-the-greens.
Right now, Hovland is last on the PGA Tour in this category, and it isn't close. He will likely finish the season there, and while this is the one statistical category which can usually be glossed over, that isn't true at Augusta. In fact I find it very hard to see him winning the Masters unless he finds a solution. Only once so far has Hovland ranked inside the top 10 in strokes-gained around-the-green for any given tournament, and the tournament in question only involved 30 players. He was just a bit better than average.
This category is the least important in the sport, because elite players don't miss that many greens, hence Hovland has been able to achieve great things regardless. But it's not one where we see the more random spikes which we do with putting. The worst putters on the PGA Tour are more likely to have hot putting weeks than the worst chippers are to suddenly get them up and down. When Morikawa won his first major, he was a bad putter who led the field in putting. Hovland is a bad chipper who is not going to lead the field in chipping any time soon.
He knows all this, he's young, he's absurdly talented, he has a great attitude, and he has a fabulous coach. And if he does find the answer, he has a Green Jacket in his future. For now, though, perhaps we should focus on courses where thick rough around the green randomises things. His best chances in 2022 are coming up fast.
Where did all the eagles go?
This was a difficult renewal played under unseasonably cool conditions, often with a strong breeze thrown in. It's a little unfair to cast judgement in the circumstances, and I suspect for most people the minor details don't really matter. If there's any disappointment for the casual fan, it's likely in the fact so few players entered Sunday with a chance to win.
But I wasn't a fan of the length added to the 15th hole before, and I do wonder if the weather provides a handy, temporary excuse. It may be that as the temperature dial increases and a proper spring greets us in 2023, we come to realise that the hole is fundamentally less exciting for having been made longer.
There wasn't a single eagle at the 15th all week. We had eagles at the ninth, 10th and 16th, none of which are par-fives, but zero at the hole synonymous with them down the years. In 2021, Hideki Matsuyama's attempt to go for the green almost ended in disaster when he went through the green. In 2017, Sergio Garcia hit the shot of his life for an eagle which helped him to a Green Jacket.
Concern that par-fives become too easy for the big-hitting golfers of the modern era are genuine, but I'm not sure that's true at Augusta. Not now. The 13th hole, with a subtle change to the tee, has become far less vulnerable to the driver-wedge attack employed by Bubba Watson, himself a one-off. The eighth remains very difficult to eagle. There aren't many at the second, either.
There should be eagles at the 15th. Augusta is hard enough, without telling a good chunk of the field they can forget about going for the green. It's a shallow green, too, with a steep run-off to water at the front, and water behind also in play. Most of all, it's more fun to watch players try to hit it with a six-iron than it is a wedge, which becomes a battle of spin control.
I will admit, the towering hybrid or three-wood that Justin Thomas hit during the third round was a joy to behold, but it required a particularly receptive green. Under firmer conditions that shot would probably carry too much risk to even contemplate. I worry that a return to more familiar conditions won't be enough to fully restore the excitement of the 15th hole.
Major achievement
The final word goes to Scheffler. Just because he's the world number one, just because he's so calm, just because he was always meant to be special, just because he's made winning anything and everything look so easy, doesn't mean that it is. There are world-class players who have not won majors, others among this current crop who will not. To win one is to achieve something most do not.
How many will he win? Who cares. Right now, what matters is that he's won one. The biggest one, you could argue. The manner of his victory bodes extremely well for what's sure to be a bright future, but I hope Scheffler is able to live in the now and enjoy every moment. He's been dreaming about this since he was a child and whatever he goes on to achieve, you only ever win your first major once. What a star.