The Masters betting tips: Ben Coley's preview and best bets for golf major at Augusta National
Ben Coley previews The Masters at Augusta National, where Justin Thomas looks to have everything in his favour and can win a Green Jacket.
- Ben Coley has had winners at 20/1, 30/1, 33/1 and 66/1 this year
- In 2021, his record was +692.51pts, following +363.56pts in 2020
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Golf betting tips: The Masters
5pts win Justin Thomas at 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)
2pts e.w. Will Zalatoris at 35/1 (Betfred, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Shane Lowry at 45/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Tony Finau at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1.5pts e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 55/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Luke List at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
SPORTING LIFE REQUEST-A-BET
After those six majors from September 2020 to July 2021, it has felt like a particularly long wait for the Masters to come around. A long wait, but a good wait. One of the many things that together make this tournament special is that by the second week of April, almost nine months have passed since we got to live a men's major championship in its all-consuming glory, an experience which in this day and age involves downloading an app and feeling like no act this exciting could have been done by any human being ever before.
But it's not the calendar which really makes the Masters. It is the history, the iconography, and above all else the course. Augusta National is a golfing paradise, cruelly beyond most people's reach. It is so intoxicating that cynics like me can convince themselves that its pristine exclusivity is in fact a good thing and not a bad thing. We all make compromises for things that we love, and I wholeheartedly love the Masters. So, I suspect, do you.
This year's renewal has something for everyone, that's before it's even begun, although we probably ought not to kid ourselves into believing everything is perfect from a narrative perspective. It's a shame that defending champion Hideki Matsuyama arrives here carrying an injury. It's exciting that Tiger Woods' participation remains in doubt, but it would be better if it were not, and he could tee off as a healthy, competitive version of the man whose 15th major here three years ago was one of the greatest comebacks of all time.
How will Tiger Woods fare?
If he wins again this week, that moment of sporting history will be made to look ordinary. In 2019, Tiger Woods was one of the world's form players, and everybody dared to dream even if they didn't quite believe. This time he has played nothing more than a father-son exhibition and some practice rounds in preparation. His health is the biggest question mark – walking 72 holes at Augusta National tests the fit, never mind the fragile – but it would be unreasonable to expect him to be sharp enough to compete anyway. Underestimating Tiger is for the foolish, but let's be clear on the scale of this task.
Indeed that's that where Woods is concerned. We can celebrate him elsewhere, hope that in return we get a moment or two of magic to add to the tale, dream perhaps of something more spectacular. The primary focus of this column is to find the champion, and the business of doing so begins with a look at what's typically required to win the Masters.
As you might expect, experience has been important. It need not be a dealbreaker – three of the last 10 April champions were winning on just their second visit – but it certainly helps. In that respect, Hideki Matsuyama slotted in nicely after Dustin Johnson, both having won a Green Jacket at the 10th attempt. Patience is a Masters buzzword, and it applies not just to plotting a path around Amen Corner, but to realising that there's always next year.
Secondly, the course as it is now, lengthened again in places and with receptive fairways set to receive a Tuesday deluge, tips the scales towards bigger hitters. It does so not just through yardage on a scorecard, but by allowing for the recovery shots those who hit the ball a long way are more likely to require. Zach Johnson once won this by laying up on every par-five, but it's impossible to envisage a repeat. If you are towards the bottom of the distance stats, you're surely going to need to punch significantly above your weight on four scoreable par-fives, and do so by going for the green when you can. The lengthening of the brilliant 15th certainly won't help.
This leads nicely into the importance of quality approach play. That's Matsuyama's main strength, as it is Tiger's. We've seen any number of brilliant iron players win here, the likes of Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia and Bubba Watson all fresh examples. These are players whose struggles with putting have been well-documented, but as is true whether you're betting once a year or many times a week on golf, to dwell on the most fickle aspect of the sport is to waste time better spent elsewhere. Here, approach play is king.
Better is to focus on a blend of power, those vital second shots, and perhaps also sharpness around the greens. Matsuyama has long been a brilliant chipper, and Woods' most iconic moment here came with a wedge which he had to land on a sixpence. Most weeks, it pays to gloss over around-the-green stats, themselves hard to predict and inherently volatile, but here at Augusta it's imperative that missed greens don't multiply into massive setbacks.
If all this sounds regimented, that's by design. We have years' worth of form to trawl through and much of it ties together. And now, in the early days of this tournament's foray into the strokes-gained era, that is to say statistics with real substance, what we're seeing is validation of what we'd come to believe.
Augusta is devilishly difficult, but it isn't necessarily deceitful: what you need to do well here is logical and established. There will always be outliers, such as the magic wand put to use by Patrick Reed in 2018, but the surest route is the one well-trodden.
Thomas the best bet for Masters glory
All of this explains why I, like many others, believe JUSTIN THOMAS has the ideal game to become a Masters champion, and just as patience from players is often paid out, so might we be rewarded for sticking to the plan.
Thomas was selected on these pages in 2020, when charging to a share of the halfway lead only to be left behind on Saturday as his Masters bid unravelled in one bruising hour. He was selected again last April, when at the halfway stage he was right at the head of a wide-open market despite not quite having his A-game.
On both occasions, he failed to connect four rounds together, emblematic of his wider issues in majors. Since winning the PGA Championship in 2017, when denying Matsuyama, Thomas has only briefly threatened to add a second, something many would've assumed would come naturally. Johnson of course had to wait almost five years between his first and second, and Thomas might just emulate him here.
The positives are not difficult to find, indeed they're hard to narrow down. At fifth in strokes-gained approach this season, Thomas is underlining yet again that he's one of the very best iron players around. Most would toss a coin between him and Collin Morikawa, or perhaps edge towards the younger man. But here at Augusta, the six starts Thomas has to Morikawa's two tip the scales very much in his favour.
So too does his brilliant short-game, particularly from the bunkers and tight lies which are all but guaranteed if missing a green. For my money, Thomas is up there with Reed in his ability to execute terrifying pitches and chips which require total commitment or else payment of a heavy price. This blend of approaches and the ability to salvage things when one goes astray goes a long way to explaining why he's played well here on each of those six previous visits, so often pounding greens.
Thanks to the industry-leading golf statistician Justin Ray, who helps shed light on a shadowy operation here at Augusta, we know that Thomas was the best iron player in this tournament from 2018-2020, leading both the traditional greens-in-regulation stats and their upgrade, strokes-gained approach. We know too that of the 30 rounds here from 2017-2020 which saw a player hit 16 or more greens, five belonged to Thomas.
Last year, it was an unexpected dip in his ball-striking which resulted in a modest share of 21st, but even that helps demonstrate how effective he is here. Thomas's number one strength is his iron play; it is what sets him apart. Without it, hitting the ball to what was by his standards a modest level, he was still right in the mix heading into the third round, and fighting for places deep into Sunday.
In each of Thomas's last four Masters starts, he's shot a round of 68 or lower. The only other player who can make the same claim is Jon Rahm, whose struggles around the green are a major concern for all that his price has started to shift in the right direction. Ultimately, Thomas just hasn't putted well enough here, and there is enormous potential for him to do something very special if and when he's able to figure the greens out.
To that end, there are two sources of encouragement, although there's no denying a dose of blind hope is also required. The first sign that he might just do it is that Thomas, a confidence player, has started to putt much better lately. Exiting the Phoenix Open, where he hit the ball well enough to win, he ranked 175th on the PGA Tour in strokes-gained putting. Just a handful of starts later and he's climbed inside the top 100, his efforts at the Valspar and Riviera more than sufficient were he to marry them with his best long-game.
And then there's Bones. Jim MacKay, Thomas's new, full-time caddie since the beginning of the year, better known as Bones, has Augusta experience in spades. He won this three times with Phil Mickelson, and he could have a significant influence here. When Scott won the Masters, remember the play-off putt, when caddie Steve Williams stepped in and told him exactly where he needed to start it? With Tiger's ex-caddie now retired, it's Mickelson's who boasts more potential than anyone to have a material effect on the outcome of the tournament.
Even if that is a dramatic assessment, if it overestimates just what a caddie can do, I believe that Thomas believes he has an ace tucked up his sleeve, and that in itself is worth something. He might in fact have two: Thomas was at Augusta practicing with Woods last week, and I feel sure that if Tiger deep down knows he can't win this, there's one man he'd like to. He will have done his best to help his protege prepare, and should Thomas find himself in the mix, he can expect some words of advice heading into Sunday.
On Woods, it's telling that when his mentor was making history here in 2019, Thomas remained willing to make a bold claim – that he had in fact played well enough to have won the tournament. He felt similarly in 2017 and 2018, 2020 too, ranking sixth, second, third and sixth in greens hit during this sequence of what-might-have-beens, but to say so as Woods was doing what he did reveals plenty about his own faith in what lies ahead for him in the Masters.
Finally, he is playing really well. Only twice this season has he missed the top 20, first when on the wrong side of a significant draw bias when defending a title nobody before has successfully defended, then when knocked out of the Match Play in a group which contained the eventual runner-up. In stroke play events which didn't heavily favour one side of the draw, he's on a run of five top-10s in six, and he hasn't missed a cut since last May. His approach play is firing, ranking second twice in four starts, he's driving the ball well, and he remains dynamite around the greens, which all adds up to second in strokes-gained tee-to-green.
There are clear doubts over Spieth's putting, Rahm's short-game, Rory McIlroy's approach play, and whether some of the younger stars at the front of this market have enough experience. Perhaps Scottie Scheffler, who has Masters-winning Ted Scott by his side, can overcome it, or else the behemoth Morikawa. But here at Augusta, it is probably wise to place extra emphasis on knowhow when separating those at the head of the betting, and of all the world-class players who have it, nobody is primed in quite the way that Thomas is.
As Thomas himself is all too aware, an ideal profile and a near-perfect preparation guarantees you nothing once play begins. But with Bones on the bag, and with six years' worth of lessons learned, this is a fine opportunity for him to put the pieces of the puzzle together. These now should be his golden years at Augusta. Apprenticeship served, he can depart the one-time major winners' club and earn the sport's most coveted prize.
Dangers are of course manifold. None of those youngsters is dismissed, not even Viktor Hovland and his chipping inadequacies. Cameron Smith to my eye looks a good 10 points shorter than he ought to be, but his chance is blindingly obvious: twice a winner this year, a habitual Masters contender, of a mind which suggests a major opportunity could well be taken, and with hands as magic as Spieth's once the longer shots have been hit.
But with Patrick Cantlay's preparation less than ideal, and Xander Schauffele having more demons to lay to rest, it's Morikawa and Brooks Koepka who demand the most respect, and the latter was very close to being selected.
We know by now that Koepka's been a monster at the highest level since winning his first US Open in 2017, a title he defended while also collecting back-to-back US PGA Championships during a sensational run. It's one I'd have gladly labelled unsustainable but while that has unsurprisingly proven to be the case, he's been mighty close: six top-sevens in eight majors since he last won one confirm that those opposing him have been made to sweat.
The last time Koepka arrived here fit, he finished a gallant runner-up to Woods, paying a heavy price for coming up short with his approach to the 12th hole but responding well to keep Tiger honest. That was the culmination of a progressive initiation period, finishing 33rd on debut, 21st in a really tough 2016 edition and 11th behind Garcia in 2017. Forced to miss the 2018 renewal through injury, he was then denied only by Woods' fifth Masters win.
Ahead of the 2020 renewal when he went on to finish seventh, the only player ahead of Thomas in strokes-gained tee-to-green here over the previous three years was Koepka, and we can put a line through last year's missed cut. Koepka said he "wouldn't have been playing for another month if it wasn't this week" as he grimaced his way through 36 holes before another five weeks off, a rehabilitation period which helped him get ready for what would be a frustrating second place behind another legend of the sport, this time Mickelson at Kiawah Island.
He's the one if you'd like two from the top of the betting but I'm very sweet on Thomas and am happy to take just one of that top dozen, each of whom has something to recommend him. For my money, Thomas is the one they all have to beat.
Zalatoris to follow Spieth path to Green Jacket?
Sam Burns is the pick of the debutants as he seeks to become the first to win here since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. WLL ZALATORIS came mighty close last year and it's a record which won't last forever, but having advised Burns in a couple of other majors antepost, and to win any of the four at 16/1, I'm content to let him go unbacked despite a fair price in the region of 40/1.
I have instead come round to Zalatoris, despite concerns over his short putting which were covered in my guide to the field. Anyone watching PGA Tour golf regularly will know that his awkward technique from close range is really not pleasant to watch, although he has so far missed only 10 of 396 attempts from inside five feet this season and the stats aren't quite as terrifying as the television can be, as he's not missed anything from three feet and in.
What they do tell us, though, is that you have to go back to early October for the last time he beat the field in strokes-gained putting. It is difficult to imagine any player winning the Masters while giving away ground on the greens, so if this trend does continue then perhaps the best this 35/1 chance can hope for is a place just inside the top 10.
However, having trawled through Match Play shot data, it's clear he was very good in Texas, and not just from distance. Zalatoris did miss a couple of short ones in defeat to Sepp Straka, but either side of it was excellent, particularly when taking down Hovland to win a tough group. In the end he would go on to lose to Kevin Kisner, who has won more matches at Austin than anybody, in a display of real substance.
None of this is to say his demons have been exorcised; likely he will suffer the odd blip. But the current PGA Tour leader in strokes-gained tee-to-green did putt well here last year and did putt well last time, and there is really only one other negative: the fact he is yet to win at this level.
To make your breakthrough in a major would be extraordinary, but not unprecedented, and Zalatoris has another year of experience behind him since finishing second to Matsuyama. He's felt what it's like to have a putt to win, too, missing from inside 10 feet at Torrey Pines. Ultimately I found myself thinking I'd be mad keen on him had he won there, so to dismiss him because Luke List made a few more than usual seems a little unreasonable.
Long off the tee and a sensational iron player in the Morikawa and Thomas bracket, Zalatoris has an ideal game for Augusta. And while experience is important, Spieth won here a year after finishing runner-up on debut. It's possible we're talking about another exceptional player with a similarly bright future, and thanks to the strength at the front of the market we're able to take a good each-way price.
Lowry poised for major improvement
In recent weeks I have massively warmed to the chances of SHANE LOWRY, despite a modest record here, and it seems I'm not alone as the Irishman has been supported since bookmakers revealed their enhanced place terms. Well, supported or cut, which aren't always one and the same.
He is now getting towards being on the short side but I have to acknowledge that the battle to offer most places, won this year by Sky Bet and BoyleSports with Betfair, Paddy Power and Coral behind, forces a different approach to ordinary weeks. Unless you play on the exchanges or back injured golfers, you're unlikely to get generous win prices.
Lowry's course form will worry some as he has had six tries at Augusta, just like Thomas, but only in April did he match the American's finish. Before that share of 21st he'd gone MC-39-MC-MC-25, latterly enjoying the company of Woods during the November edition, and only when sitting second after round one in 2016 had he really been involved at the business end of the leaderboard.
But it's not always the case that winners here had marked our cards in previous years. Reed in particular is a fine example of what matters most in this sport – good golf in recent weeks and months. He had never been a factor at Augusta prior to winning, but what he had done was contend regularly in the tournaments leading up to the Masters, everything falling into place as he took down McIlroy and Spieth with the crowd against him.
Lowry, whose brilliant hands are a massive asset here, has six top-25 finishes from six stroke play starts this year. He was awfully unfortunate not to win the Honda Classic when a downpour combined with Sepp Straka's career-best run confined him to second place, played really well in The PLAYERS, and was frustrated to finish 12th in the Valspar, where once more his long-game looked really good.
First in strokes-gained total over his last 12 measured rounds, that very short-term measure of form tells us that he is at his best right now. He's second only to Hovland in ball-striking and third in strokes-gained approach if we take the same view, while for the season he ranks 11th on the PGA Tour, in line with 19th last. Iron play has become a major strength of his game and it's probably never been better than it is today.
His around-the-green stats might not look all that impressive but your eyes should tell you he is dynamite from tight lies around fearsome, contoured greens like these, and while his Augusta record might be considered a negative, there's light if you want to see it. Just twice has he played here as a major champion, and he's produced his best two finishes. Moreover, after speaking of picking Tiger's brain in November 2020, he returned last April to rank fifth in strokes-gained approach, his numbers almost identical to those of the winner.
"I feel like I've played good enough golf this week to be out there somewhere around Amen Corner with a chance to win the tournament," he said, not unreasonably. "I've thoroughly enjoyed my week because I feel like every day I come out and play this place I'm figuring it out a little bit better. I love the way I played this week.
"(When) I bogeyed 11 on Friday, I was three-over for the tournament, and I sort of resigned myself to the fact I was never going to win a Green Jacket. Then I played lovely the last few holes and then played nicely yesterday, and you kind of start to build your hopes up again. So who knows?"
Back then, Lowry couldn't have asked for much more in the way of preparation. Yes, he'd like to have won for the first time since the 2019 Open, but he really was unlucky in Florida, and besides, he's very comfortable as a self-styled big-event specialist, his career highlights including the Open, an Irish Open as an amateur, a WGC, and standing taller than most at the Ryder Cup.
Returning to a course which complements his two main strengths, approach play and chipping, Lowry looks rock solid and should be right in the thick of things if getting off to a decent start.
Hot on Chilean after breakthrough win
Next, I've come back around to the idea that JOAQUIN NIEMANN might just be capable of defying inexperience and proving that he too has the game to become a Masters champion.
For my money, Niemann's victory in the Genesis Invitational goes down as both the most impressive of the year, and the strongest piece of form. Remember, while the field strength at Sawgrass was slightly higher, half of them were given very little chance simply because of their tee-times in what was a strange and unreliable form guide.
At Riviera, Niemann took the lead late on Thursday evening, and after that they never saw him. Briefly, during Sunday's final round, Cameron Young looked like he might get on terms, but whenever he did, Niemann pulled out more. It was a brilliant display, and the maturation of this former world amateur number one.
It just so happens that Riviera has been an excellent Masters guide. Watson, Scott, Mickelson, Mike Weir and Fred Couples are all multiple winners there who own Green Jackets; Johnson is another to have won both along with Sir Nick Faldo, while the likes of Garcia, Paul Casey and Tony Finau have been fixtures on both leaderboards.
Just why that is, who can really say, except that they're tree-lined, shot-maker golf courses where being in the rough isn't usually much of a problem. Instead, power is rewarded as those hitting approaches to small targets with shorter irons have more height and greater control. Throw in their difficulty, the risk-reward nature of several key holes and the strength of field they attract, and you can see why there would be some form of correlation.
I also like the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields as a form guide. There, in 2020, Niemann finished just two shots behind play-off pair Rahm and Johnson, virtually permanent fixtures on Masters leaderboards. In third place alongside Niemann was Matsuyama, in fifth was Finau, and Watson had been right there in the mix until Sunday. Another difficult, long, old-fashioned course, it was one of the first indications we got that the Chilean could tough it out with the best this early in his career.
But it's really Niemann's game which holds the appeal here. He's right towards the very top of the around-the-greens stats this season, ranking third among this field, which is a huge improvement on last season. Back then Niemann was outside the top 100, but a glance back towards the top confirms the importance of the category here: there were three Masters champions inside the top seven, and that's where Niemann now finds himself.
At 36th in strokes-gained off-the-tee, certainly long enough, and with a top-30 ranking in strokes-gained approach, it's only his putting which looks an obvious weakness. On that score, small encouragement can be taken from how well he coped on his first try in the Masters as a professional last April (MC as an amateur), and also in the fact that he's so often looked most effective on bentgrass greens.
With a practice round alongside mentor and 2017 champion Garcia sure to be pencilled in, maybe he does already know enough to win the Masters. It's a big ask at 23, but he has now made five major cuts in a row after an inauspicious start, and on two occasions last year his ball-striking was of a standard sufficient to have been competing towards the top of the leaderboard.
Beating that field in that way at Riviera should really have boosted the self-belief of this very special talent, one whose shot-making skills already stand out. He's held his form nicely enough since, his long-game very good in The PLAYERS, and having started the final round last year in 21st place he wasn't far off the final few groups.
Experience, or lack thereof, is a negative, just as it is with Zalatoris. But every player has one of those, and unlike the front of the market we can back Niemann at around the 50/1 mark and with bumper places. By virtually every other measure he fits the profile of a classic Masters champion.
Count on course specialist
So does TONY FINAU, whose form here in April renewals shows three top-10 finishes from as many starts.
Unlike in previous years, he arrives with a long-overdue win under his belt courtesy of The Northern Trust last August. There, he beat regular Masters contenders Rahm and Smith, and the two previous winners at a difficult Liberty National were Patrick Reed and Adam Scott, both of whom own Green Jackets.
Finau was up there at Olympia Fields with Niemann and has lost a play-off at Riviera so he has all the correlating form to lead us back to Augusta, where he shot rounds of 66 and 68 to take 10th on debut, a third-round 64 to play alongside Tiger in the final round in 2019, and then added another 66 on his way to 10th place last year.
Only in the easier-than-usual November renewal has he failed to make an impact and even there he bagged another sub-70 round, five in 16 all told giving him one of the best modern Augusta records in the field. He simply loves it here, and with the course set to play even longer his effortless power becomes a greater advantage.
The issue is his form, which has been modest this year. But Finau arrived in 2019 with his game similarly quiet, having failed to manage a single top-10 all year, and finished 61st in Texas a week earlier. Last year, he'd started off well but had gone MC-MC in his previous two stroke play starts. In other words, two of his three Masters top-10 finishes came when somewhat off the radar, which probably helps to explain them to some degree.
That's the case again but I love the fact he putted better with every passing round to finish 29th last week, hitting the ball really well. It's only three stroke play starts since he ranked second in strokes-gained approach so we've some high-class iron play in the recent past, but that putter had been badly holding him back. Perhaps now he's turned a corner.
Around the green, his stats are very worrying, much in the same way as Rahm. But he was third in that category here last year and above all else, prices in the region of 50/1 surely factor in some sort of question mark. Finau has gone off at half the odds in majors, and this is the first one he will play having won a high-class tournament in his professional career. If he's in the mix, that has to help.
As far as outsiders go, Si-Woo Kim probably no longer counts with his odds cut all the time and I'm happy to take the view that he'll threaten without quite delivering, just as was the case last year. He's set to go off a shorter price this time whereas in 2021 he'd won, and for my money the field is a bit stronger at the front end. Value is hard to find in majors but every player comes with a cut-off point and the Korean has passed his.
Erik van Rooyen is one I can see going well but narrow preference is for LUKE LIST, an Augusta resident with a sub-70 round to his name, having been an excellent 33rd back in 2005. List was an amateur back then and memories will be distant, but everything he's done as a professional suggests the course should be an ideal fit.
He's here because he's a winner at last, and before last week's fade in Texas he was the top-ranked player on the PGA Tour in strokes-gained tee-to-green. Now third, his performance at TPC San Antonio reminded me a little of Matsuyama's a year ago, where a strong start made way for a sloppy finish, before everything fell into place a week later.
Now, List isn't of the same class and at 37 never will be, but he is a phenomenal ball-striker with bags of power at his disposal, and on a long, soft course he finished sixth in the 2019 US PGA. He's only played three majors since and, having toppled Zalatoris at Torrey Pines, this is the first he'll begin as a PGA Tour winner.
Recent winning form has often been one of the best major clues, and List is inside the top 25 for approach play (24th) and around-the-green (17th), as well as driving distance (seventh). He will likely miss too many putts but with so many places on offer, three-figure prices about him running into a place and guaranteeing a profitable week are too big to resist. Note that Sky Bet go 175/1 in their alternative eight places market, but ninth, 10th and 11th could be invaluable with a bet like this so I'll take the shorter price.
Posted at 1800 BST on 04/04/22
Masters: Related links
- Ben Coley's player-by-player profiles
- Watch: Masters memorable moments
- Masters tee-times and key groups
- Watch: Tiger Woods magic moments
- Hotshots Golf Offer selections
- Masters: Key talking points
- Augusta National hole-by-hole course guide
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