Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the PLAYERS Championship
Golf betting tips: The PLAYERS Championship
3pts e.w. Justin Thomas at 20/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
2pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 22/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1.5pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 35/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Jason Day at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Sungjae Im at 50/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
Sky Bet odds - TEN places | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
A year ago, the PGA Tour stumbled into suspension on an infamous Friday at the PLAYERS Championship, less than 72 hours after a Chainsmokers concert (nope, me neither) in front of massive crowds. C.T. Pan had already withdrawn from one of the most important events on the calendar, but others were to be guided by a Tour whose leadership they trusted. Come Thursday night, it had become clear that that leadership would have its hand forced. On Friday morning, it was made official: the tournament was cancelled.
From those ponderous missteps amid chaos worldwide, the Tour has done a good job of first creating a clear path towards resumption, and then getting on with things with so with few hitches — the Nick Watney testing fiasco is a fading memory, and no longer do we hang on tweets from its communications department to find out which players have fallen foul of a positive Covid-19 test this time.
Whatever your views on the situation as it stands, whether Joel Dahmen should be able to miss the cut and go and find some strangers to play golf with as he did last week; the apparent bursting of bubbles and a still stark contrast to the protocols of the European Tour, life on golf's biggest and most lucrative circuit is close to normal again.
And so here we are, back at Sawgrass, the Tour already working hard to accentuate those undoubted positives. Its job has been made easier by a dizzying start to the year, including but not limited to a Tony Finau play-off loss, Patrick Reed's latest go at interpreting rules, Jordan Spieth's return to form, and Bryson DeChambeau's power — so significant that he managed to convince some very serious people that in aiming 70 yards to the right of a green, he was in fact attempting to drive it.
The stage is set perfectly for a tournament which provides the strongest field of the year, at a familiar, famous and dramatic golf course, for big money and great prestige. The PLAYERS as it is now, marketed expertly and positioned as the best of the rest, is one nobody wants to miss, which has not always been the case. That's why only two of the world's top 50 are absent, and as a result this is probably the hardest event to win on the calendar.
One of the most fascinating aspects of this tournament is that it's played at TPC Sawgrass, a tricky, fiddly, devious course which in some ways nullifies the advantage those at the top of the sport have. Tiger Woods won here just twice, Phil Mickelson once, Ernie Els and Vijay Singh never, and even the most recent evidence we have demonstrates how level this playing field is. Yes, Rory McIlroy triumphed in 2019, but in the end he had a single stroke in hand over Jim Furyk, with outsiders Eddie Pepperell and Jhonattan Vegas a further shot behind.
Still, it's not insignificant that McIlroy won following a move in the calendar from May to March, and that Dustin Johnson's share of fifth in the same renewal was his best yet. Sawgrass played softer and longer, a point noted by defending champion Webb Simpson, and it wasn't all to do with rain. Then, one year later, Hideki Matsuyama opened up with a nine-under 63, and there were three players behind him who carded rounds of 65. While historical data says March should be tougher than May, since the PLAYERS returned to its old slot that simply has not been the case.
I wonder then: might it be possible that the PGA Tour wants to do what it can to ensure its best players can contend more often in its flagship event? Images from an over-seeded Sawgrass suggest it is set to play long and lush once more, despite a dry spell, and perhaps the days of accuracy trumping power as when KJ Choi defeated David Toms, sandwiched between wins for Tim Clark and Matt Kuchar, are no more.
Johnson has to be considered at 12/1 given his strike-rate, which is one-in-four since last June's resumption, one-in-seven over the last two years, and one-in-eight if you widen the lens to half a decade. Viewed that way, there's a straightforward case to make for the clear standout player in the sport, especially if that form from 2019 really is more significant than everything before it. The issue I have is that not only is he putting badly, but his driver has been a problem this year, which is why his PGA Tour form reads a modest (for him) T11-T8-T54.
Who is the best bet for the PLAYERS?
With McIlroy exasperated on Sunday and DeChambeau unlikely to my eye to repeat his Bay Hill heroics here, the two standout candidates from the very top of the betting are Jon Rahm and JUSTIN THOMAS, and I can't get away from the latter at a massive 20/1.
Rahm was lacklustre after a good start in the World Golf Championship won by Collin Morikawa two weeks ago, but there have been strong indications that he's getting used to his new golf ball and the driver in particular. The trouble is his putting has suffered badly since signing for Callaway, and his approach work at The Concession was decidedly poor.
For those reasons, Thomas is much preferred and rates a strong fancy to put behind him a turbulent start to the year, that unsavoury episode in Hawaii and the subsequent death of his grandfather surely affecting his play, before Tiger Woods' car accident on the eve of the WGC Workday Championship. Thomas, who has played more golf with Woods than anyone and considers him a good friend, was visibly shaken in the run-up to the event and was virtually out of things by Thursday evening.
In the end then I thought his rally for 15th place was excellent, particularly as he was the worst driver in the field. To overcome that he demonstrated that his key weapons are firing — he's one of the two best iron players in the sport, and ranked second in strokes-gained approach — and following a disjointed preparation I have no trouble making allowances for the problems he suffered off the tee at a new and quirky course.
Some would call Sawgrass quirky, and McIlroy admits that it took him many years to accept the course for what it is. Thomas, on the other hand, has always spoken fondly of it, and his attitude towards Pete Dye's conundrum helps explain why he's made all five cuts and made more birdies than anyone since contending on debut in 2015.
"It's a place I love," he said last year. "I love the golf course. I think it's just a very well-designed course, tee to green, forces you to work it both ways off the tee and into the green, and obviously it's an extremely deep field with all the top players here, so it's a tournament that when I first came here, I felt like I could have some success at this place."
Thomas went on to add another under-par round to his collection with a quiet 71 to start the 2020 edition, and whether you call this his sixth or seventh appearance in the event, he looks ready to follow an established path and put his experience to use. The last 10 first-time winners of this event, i.e. all bar Tiger, had made on average seven prior starts. Clearly, Sawgrass lends itself to experience, and 20 rounds here means Thomas has plenty of it.
Ultimately, this is a rare opportunity to back him at such a price. He is ranked number three in the world and has won at least twice every year since 2017, including at major championship and WGC level. And, on a course where his deadly wedge game should be hugely advantageous, he looks to have an excellent chance to kickstart his season ahead of the Masters next month.
Another small reason to like Thomas's chances is that he has quite an eye-catching record on Dye designs, despite limited appearances versus some of his rivals. Even in 2015, at the very start of his professional career, he managed 18th place in the US PGA at Whistling Straits, and he's been eighth and 11th in the RBC Heritage, played at a course which really ought not to be ideal. Also 12th at TPC Louisiana, again in 2015, and having carded a round of 62 at TPC River Highlands, that's a box he very much ticks.
Dye form points to Patrick
So too does PATRICK CANTLAY, my headline selection for this last year and on his last start, and a player I find difficult to leave out with such generous place terms on offer.
Nobody has won this title on the back of a missed cut in almost a quarter of a century, and virtually every winner arrived in very good form — take Choi's sequence of 6-8-3-1 as a clear example, but even 80/1 chance Martin Kaymer was progressing nicely, and shock champion Si Woo Kim had turned a corner in Texas on his previous start.
Other than perhaps Tony Finau, nobody in this field has been as consistently excellent as Cantlay of late, and while he did struggle with the putter over the weekend at Riviera, in general every aspect of his game has appeared in good shape since he produced a dazzling final round for second in the American Express, and then contended again at Pebble Beach.
Form of 22-23-MC in this event might not catch the eye, but on both the first two occasions he was close to the lead all week before poor final rounds, and the fact he led the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee on debut here tells you how comfortable this expert shot-maker is around Sawgrass. Last year, he opened with a five-under 67 and I'm convinced he'd have been in the shake-up come Sunday.
One year on and he's improved again, winning the most significant title of his career in the Zozo Championship, where he held off Rahm and Thomas. And, at fifth in bogey avoidance — always key here, though not always so easy to predict — he has the profile of one who should be a regular feature on leaderboards here in the years ahead.
Certainly, Cantlay is a fan and says it reminds him of Harbour Town, another Dye design upon which he's been very effective. Go back to the very start of his PGA Tour career and he shot 60 as an amateur at River Highlands, and both his manner and the nature of his game should lend itself to a test of patience, which this will remain whichever direction scoring goes.
The only question mark I have against his name is the fact he withdrew from the WGC citing dehydration and stomach issues, but that was a fortnight ago and should not be an excuse. Hopefully refreshed after a busy run in the mix in his native California, the world number seven appears one of the key contenders here.
Young stars face serious challenge
Inexperience is a definite concern for Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa, who recently finished first and second at a course where that was not a handicap. Hovland has since disappointed at Bay Hill and having said he's no great fan of Florida courses in general, he's quite easy to overlook despite a four-under 68 on debut here 12 months ago, a score matched by Morikawa as they played alongside each other.
It's also something of a worry for SUNGJAE IM, who made his debut here in 2019 and missed the cut, but he's a big enough price to take on board that risk — especially given what he's already achieved in the face of such concerns.
Along with Sawgrass, Augusta and Kapalua are two of the most experience-favouring courses on the PGA Tour, and over the last few months Im has finished second and fifth on his respective debuts at each. Before all this, he played Royal Melbourne exquisitely in the Presidents Cup, and these through-the-bag tests appear ideally suited to his quality, all-round game.
It's true that his iron play has gone off the rails a little of late, which is the main concern, but despite that he's been right on the fringes throughout every start so far in 2021 and form of 28-21 since the Tour landed in Florida underlines just how comfortable he is playing golf down here in the south east of the USA.
Certainly, bermuda greens bring out his best and it was nearby in the Honda Classic that he made his breakthrough last year, before finishing third at Bay Hill. That victory came in his third start after a rare break, and I'm hopeful history can repeat; certainly, the way he's driving the ball and putting at present, if his usual approach play were to return he would be a massive factor, especially so at a course like Sawgrass.
Form at East Lake and Sedgefield Country Club correlates nicely, and at 45/1 and bigger, with up to 10 places on offer, he's worth sticking with. Last week he was 20/1 and the doubling of his price, while reflective of a significantly stronger field, does stick out when compared to the likes of Spieth and DeChambeau who weren't all that far ahead of him.
At a massive price, Mackenzie Hughes makes some appeal having played well on both previous starts here, contended to a point at some of those comparable courses mentioned, and been a fairly consistent factor in strong fields over the past year, ever since chasing home Im in the aforementioned Honda Classic.
International appeal in course specialists
He's respected along with Emiliano Grillo, who will likely play well without threatening, but I'm compelled to focus more on the front of the market this time with HIDEKI MATSUYAMA and JASON DAY completing the outright staking plan.
Matsuyama of course has a score to settle here, having produced a sublime round of 63 only to have it scrubbed off. That was in fact a mere extension of an excellent course record, with five top-25 finishes in six prior visits, largely powered by his trademark ball-striking but also with strong evidence he's more comfortable on these greens than he can be elsewhere.
After a quiet start to 2021, he looks to be coming to the boil at just the right time, having been 15th in the Workday and 18th last week. His ball-striking improved across this fortnight, as did his putting, and it was only some shoddy work around the greens at Bay Hill which kept him just outside the places.
Notably, Matsuyama has generally struggled to compete at Arnie's place and his record at Sawgrass is superior. In fact of those to have played each of the last five completed renewals, his is the best adjusted scoring average — and that's ignoring the course record-tying 63 of 2020.
Success for the Japanese will likely hinge on the putter, which got better round-by-round last week. If that's a sign of things to come he may prove capable of ending what's a lengthy drought without a title, and eliminating any sense of injustice that his dazzling start last year counted for nothing.
Day is in fact second to Matsuyama (Thomas third) in those adjusted scoring charts over the last five renewals, and the two standout wins of his career have come at Sawgrass and Whistling Straits, both Dye designs.
As well as winning this impressively when at the top of the sport, he's been fifth, sixth and eighth, and we can forgive last year's opening 76 as he'd missed the cut and withdrawn from his previous two starts as he battled back and neck injuries.
Twelve months down the line and having changed plenty, including coach and clubs, he says he's as fit as he's been in a long time and is suddenly eyeing another 15 or more years on the PGA Tour. Should be remain healthy, there's little doubt he ought to be capable of climbing the rankings and, perhaps as soon as this week, winning again.
Certainly, this is an ideal course for him to showcase his off-the-tee strength and short-game class, both of which were on display at Bay Hill. The problem has always been his approach play but he's never really had to lean on it here, ranking a best of ninth when winning; he'll need to do better than he has been, but perhaps not by much.
It was admittedly disconcerting to hear him say last week that he has a little more work to do before winning, and that may be enough for some to look elsewhere, but 45/1 feels like ample compensation for a genuine Sawgrass specialist whose current form reads 7-18-31, with 14 of his last 15 rounds par or better.
The sole over-par round came on a brutal Sunday at Bay Hill, but the calmer forecast will suit Day's extraordinarily high ball-flight and he can take another step forward at the scene of one of his finest performances.
Pick of the outsiders
For those who would rather speculate more than I have, Sergio Garcia has to be considered while he continues to hit the ball as he's done for the last few months. His approach play at the WGC was as good as it's been since he won the Sanderson Farms and, as I wrote there, he's a far better player on the east coast than he is out west.
The Spaniard is respected along with the young flusher Will Zalatoris, but the final two off my list were Russell Henley and Harris English. Henley's approach play has been of an exceptional standard for some time, and he has some eye-catching Sawgrass form to go with wins in Hawaii and Houston and here in Florida at the Honda Classic. He has in fact won at Sawgrass, albeit on the Valley course which is also designed by Dye, and is entitled to step up on what he's been doing on the west coast.
As for English, a top-30 finish at Bay Hill represented a big step back in the right direction after a post-win hangover, and he's an unashamed Dye fan who says he grew up playing courses which resemble Sawgrass. Those comments came after a very bright start to his career here, and a run of missed cuts subsequently can for the most part be explained by the state of his game at the time.
Still, I find it hard to escape the conclusion that things are getting more and more predictable at Sawgrass, which might be just what the PGA Tour wants. With such generous place terms on offer, that means attacking the front end of the market, where Thomas stands out a mile at the odds.
Posted at 1800 GMT on 08/03/21
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