Jason Daniels has plenty of bets for the final round of the Scottish Open with Lucas Herbert among those on his staking plan.
Golf betting tips: Scottish Open final round
2pts Victor Perez to finish in top ten at 5/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair SB)
2pts double Robert Macintyre at 8/13 and Min Woo Lee at 5/6 to win their two-ball matches (Sky Bet)
1pt e.w Lucas Herbert at 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt Padraig Harrington to finish in top ten at 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair SB)
In the last five years, only 2019 winner Bernd Wiesberger has converted from an overnight lead at the Scottish Open, with Rafa Cabrera Bello, Brandon Stone and last year's winner, Aaron Rai, all coming from outside the top five, the latter with a joint best-of-the-day 64 to overcome a five shot deficit.
Even when the Austrian held on, Benjamin Hebert and Andrew Johnston recorded a pair of 62s to launch themselves into a play-off and The Open respectively. Stone hit an almost-59 to win at Gullane and Rafa's Sunday best 64 saw him overcome a few links specialists to triumph in another play-off - the third in the last five years.
The issue with all that is we didn't have the undisputed current world number one player and recent U.S Open champion Jon Rahm sitting just one off the lead.
Twice winner of the DP World Tour Championship, an event that has a definite links correlation, and the Irish Open, the recent new father waltzed his way to the front courtesy of some stunning tee-to-green play and it is only some uncharacteristic putting misses that see him amongst the pack and not a furlong clear.
Finding four and four-and-a-half shots over the field on each of the first two days - his iron play a delight - he gave hope to the remainder with a couple of bogeys through the first three holes but from then on it was virtually a clinic. Missing only one green through ten holes, short birdie misses were the cause of him getting his head just in front.
Of course, it's rarely perfect and after a missed birdie chance on the par-three 13th he could have stalled slightly. That thought was soon put to bed as he saved par with an eight-foot second putt at 15 before a nightmare three-putt bogey on the par-five 16th blighted his round and his day.
'I missed it - period.' Lovely view but at 7/4 I'm happy to let him win at the price.
So how to play this? Lee Westwood and George Coetzee showed that even the most experienced links players can have a nightmare, the former looking at his best before one bad iron at the 11th and a poor drive at 13th led to a pair of double-bogeys. And that in calm conditions. The prediction is for a tougher day and we could easily see someone shoot 63 early and watch them wilt.
World number five Xander Schauffele has worked his way into the tournament and looks happier with the standard putter than one of those nonsense sticks, but it's still nowhere near matching the amount of chances made and he is lagging way behind with his short game although it improved greatly on Saturday.
He will improve for the outing and for the tougher Major conditions of Royal St. Georges whilst his fellow ranking hierarchy, Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa, will also look to have a low final round to set them right for The Open.
Thomas Detry has been excellent so far this week, only recording two bogeys in 54 holes and did shoot 64 here last year. However, that was from off the pace and whilst his ability to win on the Tour is in little doubt, he has won only one from eight when in the final pairing and that at a much lower level. He is easy to leave out.
His playing companion Matthew Fitzpatrick is nowhere near as flashy and while the 26-year-old world ranked 23 hasn't the greatest record in this event, as another dual winner of the DP Worlds and with form among renowned links players, his credentials were obvious before and certainly are now.
Commenting that he felt he has been doing nothing special so far this week actually fits in with the methodology used by Aaron Rai last year, and if the weather worsens as predicted, that will be a far safer and less complicated approach to take than many that surround him on the board.
The issue is putting your faith in a player at less than 3/1 who only hit 38% of fairways in the third round and then ranked only average with scrambling - on this occasion I can't.
Lucas Herbert was excellent when winning in Ireland last week, showing he had the nerve and prowess to scramble round when his tee-to-green game deserted him, and that all sits very nicely with his win at the Dubai Desert Classic at the beginning of 2020.
Going into this event last year, the 25-year-old had come off a top-10 at Galgorm and led at halfway after a 66/65 start before getting caught up in the horror of round three, a 79 and a drop to 22nd. However, six uninterrupted birdies until the 10th and eight overall led to a 65 and launched him back to the top four. It's not hard to see him repeating that and bettering that finish by three places.
The 2014 Eisenhower Trophy individual runner-up (who cares? Rahm won, Victor Perez was third) doesn't seem to like the first couple of holes here, playing those three over last year and four over so far in 2021, but a measure of his mental strength are the two eagles and 17 birdies on the other 48. Leading in eagle count, fifth in birdies, 11-under for the par-fives and with a solid putting game he will relish the duel off the tee with Rahm. Get past one and two and the course is his for the taking.
Herbert was one of the names in this column back in October and he isn't the only one up there now.
Wade Ormsby was said then to have the experience to be calm under the pressure of tough conditions but he fell away to 19th place back in October although again showing that recent missed cuts make no difference if the course suits.
Once again, the veteran Australian is ranking well in accuracy off the tee and from tee-to-green but looks vulnerable to the improving Min Woo Lee, 19 years his younger. Sublime with his short game on Thursday and Saturday, he is improving with his tee-to-green stats, from 42nd through 25th and 9th in the third round. In and out with form and injury, he now looks on his way back after a top-20 in Ireland and has the incentive of grabbing a place at The Open.
Double him up with Robert Macintyre to beat Matthieu Pavon. He should know too much all round and will be desperate to show off in front of the home fans and give his rivals something to think about next week.
Fellow veteran and this year's Ryder Cup captain, Padraig Harrington, got it right when saying he is going to help make the course harder when helping redesign the track in the near future and that will surely make a much better course for the viewer.
Away from that and the obvious distractions of his team selection, this is the best we have seen him play since a tied-fourth at the USPGA and a share of sixth place at the Dubai Desert Classic, both leaderboards containing players absolutely suited and/or proven here and at The Open. He could easily use his years to stay on the front page should the course not allow too low a score.
As mentioned earlier, it's hard to rule out a low one from the earlier starters and whilst the event preview gave Victor Perez as one of the selections, he still remains of value now for a top-10 finish.
After a month's break after the U.S Open, the Dundee-residing Frenchman looks to have his iron play back on track and can only keep improving as we get towards a true links course. Winner at St. Andrews and with top-10 finishes that include the DP Worlds and at Wentworth, he is back in form with his approaches, the type that saw a front page finish at Saudi and Sawgrass in February.
With a pair of 66s to finish his two previous attempts here, 68s in Dubai and Wentworth and a 67 at The Players', only a repeat of anything like that form will land the main bet.
Posted at 2000 BST on 10/07/21
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